House price heatmap: it's still winter in the regions

CLAPTON

Graham_Devon wrote: »

That doesn't explain the surge over the past year though.

Again, population was rising in the years previous, and house prices didn't surge.

Furthermore, the population may be rising approx 200k a year, but that would require 66,666 new houses to accomodate the increased population based on 3 people living to a household (I should think that's around average per household?)

Were building nearly double that amount of houses per year, so that can't really explain a sudden surge over the last year.

so indeed, there is no one single cause:
increase in population over a period of time would seem to be a contributory factor say five years at 200,000 is about a million

similarly the low level of building over the last 5 years

and of course coming out of a recession might have a small bearing on decisions to buy

a bit like a damn breaking : all is well until the thing breaks

System

There's a more useful version of a heatmap here, shows rate of change rather than difference from peak.

mayonnaise

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Well I'd question the wisdom of the statements here.

It appears you are suggesting it can't be overheating as we haven't reached the peak price registered.

That peak price is peak price for a reason. It's not a benchmark or a target, it's peak because that was the highest prices reached before something went wrong.

To therefore suggest the market can't be overheating because we haven't reached the point where it last hit problems seems a little strange.

Furthermore, suggestions that it can't be overheating because we haven't yet hit peak on a map overlay misses the point entirely. The fact is that, dependant upon the index chosen, prices are rising at a rate which simply isn't sustainable.

To look at whether a market is overheating or not you can't simply look at prices in the past and state were not at a point we once were. You have to look at what's happening today. What are todays price rises based on? What is causing todays HPI? Why, in the last year have prices suddenly jumped....

The past years rise in prices cannot be blamed on lack of supply, as we had the same lack of supply issue the 3 years previous, and it didn't cause the same issue.

We know wage rises are not underpinning the rise.

Which leaves outside investors, easier credit conditions and wider confidence (or panic inducing) measures such as underpinning the market by government policy. I'd say we have all 3 of these issues. Take away any one of these items and it has the potential to hit the market hard.

At this point, due to the volitile nature of the reasons HPI is increasing at the rate it is, I'd be happy to suggest the market is becoming overheated.

I do feel the above was somewhat pointless though, as I doubt you are in the slightest bit interested.

Thanks for that.
I bolded some bits as I can't cut and paste sections without being lynched on here.
On the compairison with peak point. The purpose of the thread was not to say that as we are well below peak, thus we can't talk of a bubble or overheating. I merely wanted to point out the local character of any overheating, and as we well know by now, it's limited to London and some parts of the SE.
Why in the last year have prices jumped? Have they?
In your county they have jumped by 3.4%
In your neighbouring counties Cornwall, Somerset and Dorset, they have jumped by respectively 1.7%, 2.4% and 1.9%
In shortchanged's county they have jumped by -0.1%.
(latest LR data)

There is no overheating nor bubble if you disregard London. London is skewing the numbers.

Graham_Devon

mayonnaise wrote: »

Thanks for that.
I bolded some bits as I can't cut and paste sections without being lynched on here.
On the compairison with peak point. The purpose of the thread was not to say that as we are well below peak, thus we can't talk of a bubble or overheating. I merely wanted to point out the local character of any overheating, and as we well know by now, it's limited to London and some parts of the SE.
Why in the last year have prices jumped? Have they?
In your county they have jumped by 3.4%
In your neighbouring counties Cornwall, Somerset and Dorset, they have jumped by respectively 1.7%, 2.4% and 1.9%
In shortchanged's county they have jumped by -0.1%.
(latest LR data)

There is no overheating nor bubble if you disregard London. London is skewing the numbers.

Really?

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

That "London/South East is skewing the numbers" mantra has been shown to be another discredited bear meme.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yep.

Prices rising in most areas.

The above is just one of many threads where London skewing the figures is talked about and mocked.

It was a bear meme. Something "us bears" talked about and duly got mocked. Now, it appears you are using the very same thing?

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Okay, we can safely put the "London is skewing the numbers" argument to bed now.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

That argument was discredited a long time ago....

chucky

Graham_Devon wrote: »

That doesn't explain the surge over the past year though.

Maybe house prices are too cheap and are adjusting to what people can afford.

mayonnaise

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Really?
The above is just one of many threads where London skewing the figures is talked about and mocked.

It was a bear meme. Something "us bears" talked about and duly got mocked. Now, it appears you are using the very same thing?

It's a bit different no?

If you're discussing averages, there is no 'skewing the numbers'. The average is what it is, an average. You can't leave out London because it skews the numbers up or leave out - for example - the North East because it skews the number down. It wouldn't be an average anymore. It's simple.

Here we're talking about an overheating housing market and bubbles....which only happens in certain parts of London and the SE. See map in post #1.

chucky

Joeskeppi wrote: »

There's a more useful version of a heatmap here, shows rate of change rather than difference from peak.

No sign of a bubble here either.

Just proves how much of a troll these people are on this forum. You present them with the simple facts and they can't accept it.

pbouk

MrRee wrote: »

Pbouk:- I have absolutely no idea what 'lot' you have placed me in ..... and I have no idea what your first question was, I do apologise - remind me of it again please?

I give up.... its like :wall: