House price heatmap: it's still winter in the regions

mayonnaise

Any thoughts on the article, Graham?

sheffield_lad

As someone connected to the property industry in Sheffield I can tell you it's currently the busiest I have known it since 2003-4. A lot of agents are now operating best and final on several property hotspots and agents/surveyors & conveyances are all flat out.


Yet when I look on the map Sheffield comes under a blue colour?

jacko74

The dark blue in my particular area of Derbyshire certainly seems accurate... even properties that are currently sensibly priced (at 10%-15% below 2006 prices) are still hanging around on the market for 18 months or longer.

pbouk

MrRee wrote: »

Well, all I will say is this ..... anyone who doesn't buy property in the blue areas is a mug!!

Such a definitive high return on your money is rarely such an absolute certainty!

The report is based on Land Registry numbers, isn't that the same Land Registry that many of your lot ignore?

MrRee_2

pbouk wrote: »

The report is based on Land Registry numbers, isn't that the same Land Registry that many of your lot ignore?

Your lot, just who is 'your lot'?

Boomers? BTL owners? What?

One fact stands out though - if by any lucky chance you are still in a depressed house price area you are on the edge of wealth beyond your imagination ..... buy all those properties which have been hanging around for years, rent them out at 10% yield, and watch as the next 18 months see's your portfolio double in value!

It's like placing a bet on a racehorse at 100:1 when there are no other runners! It's that certain!

Graham_Devon

mayonnaise wrote: »

Any thoughts on the article, Graham?

Well I'd question the wisdom of the statements here.

It appears you are suggesting it can't be overheating as we haven't reached the peak price registered.

That peak price is peak price for a reason. It's not a benchmark or a target, it's peak because that was the highest prices reached before something went wrong.

To therefore suggest the market can't be overheating because we haven't reached the point where it last hit problems seems a little strange.

Furthermore, suggestions that it can't be overheating because we haven't yet hit peak on a map overlay misses the point entirely. The fact is that, dependant upon the index chosen, prices are rising at a rate which simply isn't sustainable.

To look at whether a market is overheating or not you can't simply look at prices in the past and state were not at a point we once were. You have to look at what's happening today. What are todays price rises based on? What is causing todays HPI? Why, in the last year have prices suddenly jumped....

The past years rise in prices cannot be blamed on lack of supply, as we had the same lack of supply issue the 3 years previous, and it didn't cause the same issue.

We know wage rises are not underpinning the rise.

Which leaves outside investors, easier credit conditions and wider confidence (or panic inducing) measures such as underpinning the market by government policy. I'd say we have all 3 of these issues. Take away any one of these items and it has the potential to hit the market hard.

At this point, due to the volitile nature of the reasons HPI is increasing at the rate it is, I'd be happy to suggest the market is becoming overheated.

I do feel the above was somewhat pointless though, as I doubt you are in the slightest bit interested.

pbouk

MrRee wrote: »

Your lot, just who is 'your lot'?

Boomers? BTL owners? What?

One fact stands out though - if by any lucky chance you are still in a depressed house price area you are on the edge of wealth beyond your imagination ..... buy all those properties which have been hanging around for years, rent them out at 10% yield, and watch as the next 18 months see's your portfolio double in value!

It's like placing a bet on a racehorse at 100:1 when there are no other runners! It's that certain!

So if prices are well below the peak prices, and haven't picked up since.....then why would you think they would double in 18 months?

kabayiri

This thread certainly seems to justify a London-specific housing policy. It really is at variance with the rest of the UK.


We need taxation policy in the capital to encourage a massive building spree, and to deter companies sitting on landbanks.

MrRee_2

pbouk wrote: »

So if prices are well below the peak prices, and haven't picked up since.....then why would you think they would double in 18 months?

You answer a question with a question?

I asked what did you mean by 'Your Lot' ..... I'm genuinely interested.

Graham_Devon

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes ok. I think we all realise the quotes were not literally yours and that you were merely quoting other sources to support your stance against HTB or to validate your misguided opinion that we're in a housing bubble.

Though you have done your absolute best to make out that they are. Even down to removing the punctuation.

Heres what I said...

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Following on from the OECD warning, the CBI have now come out to suggest interest rates are expected to rise in the first 3 months of 2015 due to "unsustainable increases in house price inflation".

Heres what you have edited it down to....

Graham_Devon wrote: »

unsustainable increases in house price inflation

Now, could I ask what compells you to do this? What point you think you are making or what you think you are achieving?

It simply looks like you hold an overwhelming bitterness leading you to get your claws out at any and every opportunity. I'm not sure "meow" quite sums it up.