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The Coming Zombie Robot Driving Apocalypse of You
Comments
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We forget one of the big drivers for technological change, that being military advances.
The pressures for the USA to retain a fighting presence in the middle East shows no sign of relenting, yet they are still scarred with the Vietnam era images of US soldiers being returned in coffins.
How long will it be before we see effective robotic soldiers as an answer to this dilemma ?
Drones will get ever more advanced and independent too. Once the infantryman becomes used to serving alongside robots, there will be less resistance to working alongside them in shops and factories.
There is a possibility that self drive vehicles will have a big impact on retail.
Eg imagine a washing machine manufacturer now. They output a £100 washing machine which has to sit in a warehouse who pays staff and capital and you order it online and a man delivers it and the whole thing costs £200 for you
well what if the manufacturer put their machine directly into a self drive Van. 200washing machines into the van ordered to go to London and sit there.
probably within just one day the company would sell out its whole 200 machines. The van then calculates the optimal way to deliver all 200 that day. Once its done its work it goes back to the factory for another load.
you cut out the middlemen completely. You pay factory gate prices rather than retail prices.
think of the same van but now delivering smartphones. 10,000 phones in the van on release day all delivered in an optimal way. No stores or people required.0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Just picking on this small section of your post related to drink driving.
We recently had an EHS moment to highlight the drink driving limit being reduced in Scotland and the impact it has on next day driving.
We also concluded that the passengers should not get into a car of someone they suspect is under the influence of drink (or drugs) and they should take ownership to try and persuade the driver, not to drive.
It may seem harsh to point criticism to the passengers, but just a point that they should consider to ensure their own safety.
The point is people shouldn't expect perfection from computer vehicles nor should that be a blocking argument because the competition that is human drivers are not perfect.
Self drive tech needs to be just a little better than humans, not perfect
Also something few consider is that the number of cars will probably be half or 1/3rd current fleet. So accidents will be much much less with half as many cars on the roads0 -
I am confident self drive cars will over time evolve into a pay per mile service much cheaper than owning your own car so people will stop buying their own and use these very abundant very cheap 'taxis'
In the UK I think it will be circa 10p a mile.
Also I believe cars will develop to become two-four segregated separate seats and the fleets will allow sharing.
Eg get out you phone and hit, I need a taxi and put in the post code of your destination. It gives you the price which is 10p a mile. Tick the box that says 'I don't mind sharing' and the cost falls to 5p a mile in which case a four seater (each passenger has his own door and is separated from the others eg they don't see each other). The car picks up its passengers takes them to the destination and drops them off. Of course only selecting people whos trips start in the same area and finish near same area
Most people I think will opt for this 5-10p per mile form of transport.
Rather than £2-3k to obtain a licence. £2-3k to buy a crap used car. £1-2k first year insurance. £1k depreciation. £500 fuel. £500 maintiannce. Etc.......much much simpler and cheaper to use the 5-10p computer taxi.0 -
One of the things that dawned on me is the market for journeys you don't want to take .
My son finished uni last June ..He didn't want to come back ..But he had a houseful of stuff he couldn't take to his next place ..So I drive to Swansea ..Pick his stuff up and drop it back at our house.
During my 3 hour drive I realised that was a real auto car trip ..pay my £30 ..the vehicle arrives ..son loads it ..It drives itself to my place at a set time ..I unload it ..everyone is happy0 -
One of the things that dawned on me is the market for journeys you don't want to take .
My son finished uni last June ..He didn't want to come back ..But he had a houseful of stuff he couldn't take to his next place ..So I drive to Swansea ..Pick his stuff up and drop it back at our house.
During my 3 hour drive I realised that was a real auto car trip ..pay my £30 ..the vehicle arrives ..son loads it ..It drives itself to my place at a set time ..I unload it ..everyone is happy
It has so many implications and uses over and beyond just a robot driving your car for you
for instance the problem you note might have a different solution all together.
Eg a small container truck arrives. Your son loads it up. The van goes to the local container storage plot and unloads it. When it is needed it retrieves it for your son. Effectively automated extremely cheap self storage perhaps just pennies per day.
Also think of self drive luxury caravans or mobile homes. They could operate at near 100% capacity rather than the typical 50-60% of a hotel. Some people might opt for that as a short term rental than a traditional hotel. Especially for things like it driving you to a distant location while you sleep. Or for a touring holiday eg tour Europe. Sleep and wake up in the next city. That would be fantastic. And so very cheap and better quality than hotels of a similar price.
also since car parks become mostly redundant (and often they are in prime plots in towns and cities) it offers good sites for these mobile homes or hotels on wheels. Or alternatively it offers space in cities that were car parks to be converted to homes (saving on commuting too)
It also completely destroys intercity train system in small dense countries like the UK as they would be far cheaper and far quicker than trains. That is great as its a ? £5B ? a year subsidy that can instead hire more teachers. This then allows train lines to be cinverted to roads to add capacity or other uses eg as cheap ways to lay power/gas/water infrastructure. Also big train station land and sites and track in cities and towns can be covered to better use like offices or housing.
Also the number if petrol stations would probably go down by a factor of 10x with the remaining operating at a higher capacity. Or even self refueling cars. Egthe tanker fuels self drive cars directly rather than a tabjer filling a petrol station filling cars. So yet more land and sites in towns and cities that can be put to more productive use.
lots and lots and lots of changes with robo cars far beyond 'hands free driving'0 -
I am confident self drive cars will over time evolve into a pay per mile service much cheaper than owning your own car so people will stop buying their own and use these very abundant very cheap 'taxis'
In the UK I think it will be circa 10p a mile.
Also I believe cars will develop to become two-four segregated separate seats and the fleets will allow sharing.
Eg get out you phone and hit, I need a taxi and put in the post code of your destination. It gives you the price which is 10p a mile. Tick the box that says 'I don't mind sharing' and the cost falls to 5p a mile in which case a four seater (each passenger has his own door and is separated from the others eg they don't see each other). The car picks up its passengers takes them to the destination and drops them off. Of course only selecting people whos trips start in the same area and finish near same area
Most people I think will opt for this 5-10p per mile form of transport.
Rather than £2-3k to obtain a licence. £2-3k to buy a crap used car. £1-2k first year insurance. £1k depreciation. £500 fuel. £500 maintiannce. Etc.......much much simpler and cheaper to use the 5-10p computer taxi.
Works in urban and surburban situations perhaps. Less so in rural places.
' I'd like a at I to come x miles out of its way to take my hairy dogs too the vets forty minutes away, after dropping a kid at school, and on the way back I'll go to drop the dry cleaning in and go to the butcher and get a sack of dog food from pet shop as its all in the same direction. '. This would be a feasible morning for a person in my village.
I will probably be reliant more on taxis in the future, as I expect to have to surrender my licence in the future, but realistically, as a mainstream solution? Big swathes of the country in commuter villages and rural situations more than 30 mins or so from different employment hubs let alone life style things for whom this would be a dramatic impingement.0 -
One of the things that dawned on me is the market for journeys you don't want to take .
My son finished uni last June ..He didn't want to come back ..But he had a houseful of stuff he couldn't take to his next place ..So I drive to Swansea ..Pick his stuff up and drop it back at our house.
During my 3 hour drive I realised that was a real auto car trip ..pay my £30 ..the vehicle arrives ..son loads it ..It drives itself to my place at a set time ..I unload it ..everyone is happy
We use man and vans for that type of thing every now and then. My husband when he moves/ relocates for work or has gathered too much stuff up in his place in London hires and man and van to do a run down to here. Depending on the distance and price you can get, your time value and the car you drive it can work out a not expensive choice.0 -
lostinrates wrote: »Works in urban and surburban situations perhaps. Less so in rural places.
' I'd like a at I to come x miles out of its way to take my hairy dogs too the vets forty minutes away, after dropping a kid at school, and on the way back I'll go to drop the dry cleaning in and go to the butcher and get a sack of dog food from pet shop as its all in the same direction. '. This would be a feasible morning for a person in my village.
I will probably be reliant more on taxis in the future, as I expect to have to surrender my licence in the future, but realistically, as a mainstream solution? Big swathes of the country in commuter villages and rural situations more than 30 mins or so from different employment hubs let alone life style things for whom this would be a dramatic impingement.
The way I see it then, things go one of 2 ways, either it simply becomes so expensive to drive yourself that only very rich people get to live in the countryside or (more likely) poor people in the countryside will simply have to live near where they work or live a less pleasant life.
As for commuters, I can envisage people looking to have more staggered starts. Running an office from, say, 7-7 on shifts makes a lot of sense and would smooth peaks in car demand.0 -
lostinrates wrote: »Works in urban and surburban situations perhaps. Less so in rural places.
' I'd like a at I to come x miles out of its way to take my hairy dogs too the vets forty minutes away, after dropping a kid at school, and on the way back I'll go to drop the dry cleaning in and go to the butcher and get a sack of dog food from pet shop as its all in the same direction. '. This would be a feasible morning for a person in my village.
I will probably be reliant more on taxis in the future, as I expect to have to surrender my licence in the future, but realistically, as a mainstream solution? Big swathes of the country in commuter villages and rural situations more than 30 mins or so from different employment hubs let alone life style things for whom this would be a dramatic impingement.
You are assuming it will be loke the current taxi fleet. It will instead be a fleet of around 10 million sepf drive taxis in england alone.
so all the cars you see around you now, imagine half of them were robo cars. So plentiful that even rural is easily cateted for.
even a tiny village of say 50 homes would have at least 10 robo taxis for them.
Where it wouldn't work so well is TRUE rural like the hace in America or Australia. Eg where the next house is 20 miles away. But that doesn't exist in the UK and even where it does exist it represents much less than 1% of the population.0 -
The way I see it then, things go one of 2 ways, either it simply becomes so expensive to drive yourself that only very rich people get to live in the countryside or (more likely) poor people in the countryside will simply have to live near where they work or live a less pleasant life.
As for commuters, I can envisage people looking to have more staggered starts. Running an office from, say, 7-7 on shifts makes a lot of sense and would smooth peaks in car demand.
This is totally wrong. The reason is for example say the UK now has 30 million human cars and everything works ok.
at a worst case that will be replaced by 30 million self deive taxis and your taxi will work just for you. But some things it will do itself. Eg fuel up get a service etc.
But as we know not all cars are on the road at the exact same time. So its very reasonable to say the 30 million human cars can be replaced by 10 million robo taxis and still act in the same way as everyone havig their own car. That is to saywhen you hit on your ophone 'I need a taxi' it will be there im seconds because there will be so many. Algorithm will be used so they even know when ypu are likely to need it and be there already. Eg if toy leave for work everyday at 8am it will predict this and already be waiting before you hit 'I need a taxi'
With 10m robo cars catering for the population rather than 30m human cars that is a massive saving in capital and depreciation.
Overall I think robo cars could cut transport costs by 75% which is massive because the burdon/cost of transport is similar to that of health care! Just imagine that. With self drive tech we could double heath care spend (and might have to due to an ageing population)
Also I think the opposite will happen to your rural problem. Self drive cars will be much faster (top speed will be the same but average speed maybe 3x higher as much fewer stop starts) and as such living further away will be more viable.
But of course in the UK most the homes we will need have been buolt so there won't be a mass exodus to the countryside. Instead there will be a small tony one and the result will be a more equalig of prices between cities and towns. Eg London prices would go down relative to the areas around London as it would become more acceptable to use a robo car for 30mins each way door to door and at a cost of £2 each way than it is now to take a 1.5h train thatcosts £20 each way0
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