LAND REGISTRY data finally shows FALLS in House Prices

Snow_Dog

phlash wrote: »

Just saying it as I see it. What gets me, is that when this bubble does eventually deflate a little, everyone will be saying how obvious it all was. Its very hard to see when any deflation has started to occur, since the actual stats are delayed. Is all I have presented is an abnormal amount of QoQ falls in the latest LR figures, which at least seems a little thought provoking.
Let us not forget the headlines a year into the last housing correction, when the press was still printing stories of house price rises. The unfortunate thing with these things are they are very hard to call, and often upon you before most are aware.
In today's climate though, the effects of any such falls, will be wide and deep since we are in previously unchartered territory according to all indicators used to spot a bubble.
At least one thing is true, history only teaches us one thing, and that is that we do not learn from history!
Sleep tight.

Actually in a way I like to play devils advocate, being honest i've been waiting for a crash/correction, call it what you will since 2004, in this area prices stalled for the summer 2004, and this I ascertained by manually trawling through thousands of house transactions pulled from the LR figures, watched rightmove, teamprop etc, collated data between asking price and actual achieved price (from the above sources), and lo and behold, 2005, 2006 still rising, ironically the house I sold in 2006 resold (new owners in 2 weeks ago) sold for about 20% more than we got 1 year ago. And we used the top estimate from the EA, added some and got nigh on asking price! (and no im not an STR)

There appears to be no reasoning with this market, i've learnt to hedge all bets and consolidate because like you, I think the dam may burst.

Best thing to do :beer: and be merry, whatever will be will be.

mystic_trev

The problem with looking at House prices is that too many people are looking at past performance.

A property located in UK which was valued at £70000 in Q1 of 1997, would be worth approximately £220188 in Q1 of 2007.

So if we think that trend continues for the next ten years we'll have a House price of £692,601 !!!

Anyone think that might be a little optomistic?

brasso

The rate of HPI is dropping in some areas, yes. Why is anyone surprised? We've had 4 interest rate rises over the past year that have been made for the expressly stated purpose of putting a dampener on inflation. It's finally started to feed into HPI, as it was always going to do. In my area HPI was +3% last quarter which is a touch lower than the previous one, but Y-o-Y is still +11.5%. There's no crash around here, but as I say, the rate of price increases are likely to drift down at some point.

There will no doubt be some sort of house price correction but just how far it will go is anyone's guess. I suspect it will be regionalised, and I suspect it will be a long slow decline rather than any sort of 'crash'. A 10 year decline of 20% is not a crash. A 3 month decline of 20% is a crash.

Just a couple of other points:

Selective quoting of statistics is a rather pitiful tactic. There's an absolute jerk over on HPC who loves to spin the Land Registry figures to produce whatever story he wants to see. Let's not see that sort of nonsense here. It's a totally useless and risible debating method, as someone can just as easily select a few choice data points on the other side of the argument. It gets us absolutely nowhere.

Changing the subject slightly, two people have said something about not paying my pension for me. I'm not asking anyone to pay my pension for me. I've paid full national insurance contributions for around 30 years, and will be doing so for another 15 or so. God knows how much I'll have paid in NI over the years, but it's certainly enough to cover my paltry state pension. I also pay into a private pension. Anything I get from it will be the result of the investments I've made from my own resources, so again, I don't see how a couple of random blokes on an internet messageboard are being asked to pay my pension for me. I take responsibility for myself, and ask nothing of you.

poppy10_2

meanmachine wrote: »

In my area prices FELL 10% in 2005/6, rose 10% in 2006/7 and have fallen 3% in the last quarter.

I make that a total fall of 3% in the last 2.5 years.

Your maths is wrong. Allow me to explain.

Example: A house worth £100,000.
Falls by 10% in 2005/6 i.e. DOWN £10,000 to £90,000
Rises by 10% in 2006/7 i.e. UP £9,000 to £99,000
Falls by 3% in the last quarter i.e. DOWN £2970 to £96030

Total fall of £3970 i.e. almost 4% rather than 3%. :beer::beer::beer::beer::beer:

phlash

Your NI contributions pay for the current pensioners. Its all a large pyramid scheme.
Can I find a nice final salary pension scheme for me atm, not on your nelly!
This is off topic, and admittedly started by myself, the point remained though. That the past HPI madness has not sat well with the current maturing generation, who have been burdened heavily.

poppy10_2

North Yorkshire's figures must be a mistake. Prices down 22% in one quarter??? I live there, and while I'd love prices to have come down that much, I really haven't seen it happening.

brasso

phlash wrote: »

Your NI contributions pay for the current pensioners. Its all a large pyramid scheme.

From the government's NI website:

"You pay National Insurance contributions (NICs) to build up your entitlement to certain social security benefits, including the State Pension".

That's what I've been doing -- building up my entitlement. Of course I'm not under the illusion that the £300 or so a month I pay goes into a box with my name on it that's stored under some civil servant's bed.

phlash wrote: »

Can I find a nice final salary pension scheme for me atm, not on your nelly!
This is off topic, and admittedly started by myself, the point remained though.

I believe that most public sector and banking jobs still offer final salary pension schemes.

phlash wrote: »

...the past HPI madness has not sat well with the current maturing generation, who have been burdened heavily.

Sorry, I don't understand what you mean there.

brasso

poppy10 wrote: »

North Yorkshire's figures must be a mistake. Prices down 22% in one quarter??? I live there, and while I'd love prices to have come down that much, I really haven't seen it happening.

Yes, it's an error. I can't be bothered looking up the figures but the individual areas with NY were shown with 2 or 3% drops I seem to remember, so there's no way you can extrapolate to a 22% drop. Did they forget to put a decimal point in there?

epz_2

brasso wrote: »

Changing the subject slightly, two people have said something about not paying my pension for me. I'm not asking anyone to pay my pension for me. I've paid full national insurance contributions for around 30 years, and will be doing so for another 15 or so. God knows how much I'll have paid in NI over the years, but it's certainly enough to cover my paltry state pension. I also pay into a private pension. Anything I get from it will be the result of the investments I've made from my own resources, so again, I don't see how a couple of random blokes on an internet messageboard are being asked to pay my pension for me. I take responsibility for myself, and ask nothing of you.

hate to tell you but national insurance i just tax, it gets spent the same as tax on roads, railways, pay rises for mps and current peoples pensions.

Now in the future people need to rear enough to live, save for their own private penson if they have any sence and pay enough tax to pay your pension. ''

Problem is if they are going to be £20k+ in debt from educating themselves and need to borrow 7-10 times their salary to get a house and eat how much is there going to be left to pay in tax.

Hate to say it but i would expect means testing for the state pension once the boomers start retiring, i mean if they have 1/2 a million in equity they can sodding sell up and either rent it back etc.

theres a social covanant between the youth and elderly, you look after me when young and we will look after you when old. i would say the covanant is well and truely broken with charging for uni and unatainable housing, ask todays 20 somethings how they fancy financing the btl generations retirement while they will work till 75 and have to live in tiny houses.

densol_2

I don't believe those figures.

In my area it shows Detached up 12.3% on last year. I was selling my house last year ( but then bought ex partner out ) This suggests my house has gone up £50k since last year - no way! I would struggle to say it had gone up by more than 10k and that woudl be pushing it.

The trouble is certain premuim areas in my area have gone up and they disortthe figures