llyods tsb shares

Northern_Light01

dealsearcher wrote: »

So where now for the Lloyds share price? Up to a peak of 85.8p yesterday morning and then down to 83p at the end of the day. Correction?


The gradual introduction of a dividend should push the price higher.


The government sell off? How will that effect it? The sale price will be at a discount:


http://www.4-traders.com/LLOYDS-BANKING-GROUP-PLC-4000786/news/Lloyds-Banking-Group-PLC--THE-LLOYDS-BANK-SHARE-SALE-17779005/


Would a sale discount bring the share price down? Depends what the discount is of course, but an artificially lower price at the sale will effect the price in general. But which way?


Lloyds share price certainly has a long way to go before it reaches the previous levels of 590p in 2007 and even August and September 2009 saw 110p.

I read a report a couple of days ago where George Osborne said that the sale of the remaining Lloyds shares would be "politically useful". But I'm damned if I can track it down! However, I'm sure you can draw your own conclusions as to what this implies!

Anyhow, the "correct" price for the state held shares surely has to be the one that shifts every last share with there being no further demand for more. This way the government secures "best value" for the taxpayer. But I imagine the big problem here would be trying to attract anyone to underwrite the offer, there being too much risk of being left with a pile of the damned things!

Also I'm sure that quantatitive easing would have to be factored into the final price. We have about a third of Lloyds shares hitting the market at once, which is bound to suppress demand in the early stages at least.

With the above in mind, I doubt that they will be priced to "stag". I feel that this eliminates another significant group of would be buyers.All the same, I'm sure that the last thing the government wants is disppointed investors, especially with an election looming next time. I don't think that they would want the price to fall below the offer price in the next few months after the sale.

This seems to show that pricing this offer might not be at the same black art level of an IPO. But I have now reached the stage where there are just too many shades of grey for me. Others with much more experience in these matters might be able to explain this better than me and maybe even find other problems that the government might have in settling on a final price.

Thrugelmir

dealsearcher wrote: »

The gradual introduction of a dividend should push the price higher.

Lloyds has to generate profits first, in order to pay dividends.

Hopefully this years results will see the end of PPI provisions. Which have risen so far from the initial £4 billion which was meant to cover the entire liability to nearer £8 billion.

Be interesting to see how they demerge TSB from the group as well.

Masomnia

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Lloyds has to generate profits first, in order to pay dividends.

Hopefully this years results will see the end of PPI provisions. Which have risen so far from the initial £4 billion which was meant to cover the entire liability to nearer £8 billion.

Be interesting to see how they demerge TSB from the group as well.

My old man works for a PPI reclaiming company, and reckons there's still some way to go until PPI is cleared up (I hope that isn't market sensitive information ) and that wouldn't surprise me in the least. Maybe a few more billion on that one.

I think the TSB flotation will have a bigger impact, and I'm wondering if the rise in price this week is because the markets are expecting that the government's privatisation will bring in extra cash after the Royal Mail IPO as its looking like they're planning a sell off to the public.

I was planning on buying TSB shares anyway so will have to look at how best to go about it.

dealsearcher

PPI is a known problem which is not effecting the current share price. A possible increase in PPI claims is a known unknown (to quote Donald Rumsfeld) and is something that the market has priced in.


There could be a rise in the LLOY share price because of the government sell off attracting more money. Or the share price could be depressed by the sell off being priced at a lower figure which could bring the share price down.


My post was asking which way those on this forum, who are interested in Lloyds, would think it will go.


At present the fall in the LLOY share price on Friday may be a correction or it may be a longer term concern coming in to play over the government sell off in the next few months.


I personally think it was just a correction and the share price should continue to rise to somewhere higher, but not as high as reached in 2007. That would be a 6 times increase and was partly achieved by PPI and other such nefarious means which are now being dealt with.

dealsearcher

Ah! There was something I missed - stupidity from the Labour Party! Apart from the impracticality of their comments, if the share price continues on its way down the tax payer will not get their money back on what looked to be a profitable sell off for the tax payer. That's all of us, and we are all voters.

opinions4u

dealsearcher wrote: »

Ah! There was something I missed - stupidity from the Labour Party! Apart from the impracticality of their comments, if the share price continues on its way down the tax payer will not get their money back on what looked to be a profitable sell off for the tax payer. That's all of us, and we are all voters.

To be fair, I can see where Milliband's coming from. The days of several hundred local building socieites making life tougher for the banks would, perhaps, be an ideal to return to.

But the EU has already decided what "size" LBG needs to be from a market share perspective. They firm has dutifully separated the TSB business and will create an independent bank with it.

Demanding further structural change from an organisation that has been ripped inside out several times over the past few years seems to be unhelpful for the taxpayer, other shareholders, staff who've seen colleagues made redundant and pension schemes savaged, impacted customers etc.

Time for the politicians to stop playing with the banks. Focus on levelling the playing field with regulation that will allow the small players to compete more effectively.

Banks are not a toy. Strong banks create a strong economy. Weak banks shaft us all.

dealsearcher

Indeed morally Ed Milliband is correct to try to deal with the banks but not like this.


The reason why the Lloyds share price reached 86.7p last Wednesday was because 'bankers' in city institutions and other large investment institutions had bought in to the stock and pushed the price up. Strategically the best way to get at these 'bankers' (so hated by many - but especially Labour Party supporters) would be to wait until the tax payer had got a good price for government held Lloyds shares and then make these comments, afterwards. Instead Ed Milliband is playing politics now which will result in the tax payer getting less back from the 'hated' bankers and the banking institutions will lose less.


That is why I referred to them as being 'stupid'. They are just playing politics to get the voters on their side when, in fact, their actions are going against the voters.

melbury

I can't understand why it is that when Ed Milliband comes out with these stupid statements that the share price falls - as was the case with the energy companies.

It is not as if a general election is imminent. Typical Labour, bad for the stockmarket.

mark55man

I have to agree I find it hard to see the political logic in Miliband's line of attack, but it must be there as generally he seems clever. I guess it more that this board represents a minority viewpoint - if you don't own shares (I am very long on LLOY) you don't care you just agree with anti banker rhetoric. if the sell off is sabotaged you don't care.

Personally I think labour have much stronger social lines of argument, but maybe they are not playing well in the think tanks.

I have had this as 90% weighting (100% occasionally) of my risky pot and hardly sold a share until they hit 85p. I am now top slicing because I am uncomfortable it was too much money even in a risky pot

I believe £1.00 or close is achievable if the results in Feb are good, at that point I will sell a few more (at that point I have nearly tripled my investment) if I had come in at 80p or so I might be looking to wait until the 2014 results this time next year

mark55man

melbury wrote: »

I can't understand why it is that when Ed Milliband comes out with these stupid statements that the share price falls - as was the case with the energy companies.

It is not as if a general election is imminent. Typical Labour, bad for the stockmarket.

often institutional buying will act to lock in profit / accelerating down side and then buy back when its later so sometimes an excuse to panic is welcomed - usually Jo(e) Public ends up suffering