"No House Price Bubble in UK" - says top economist....

CLAPTON

shortchanged wrote: »

I wasn't really referring to BTL as such. I was referring more to the property flippers. You know, lick of magnolia and all that jazz.

for it to be a bubble your magnolia 'flippers' would need to sell to another magnolia flipper who would then sell to another magnolia flipper etc each time at a much increased price

that didn't happen and the eventual fall in prices was modest which has largely been recovered.


tulips never regained their former price

IveSeenTheLight

theEnd wrote: »

But rents rising nominally by tiny amounts. Falling in real terms.
(won't let me post the link, but google ONS rental index)

England +8.6% over 8 years.
London +11.1% over 8 years (that's 1.35% per year).

If there was a housing shortage these numbers should be much higher.

House prices have risen in line with credit availability. Maybe good, maybe bad.

The banking bailout, SLS, FLS, HTB etc, etc suggest it wasn't naturally sustainable.

There is a difference between house prices, rental supply and rental prices.

How much has rental properties expanded over the same 8 year period?

People argue that BTL is a bad thing, but there is a case that the expansion in BTL has curbed rental increases.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Their arguments don't stack up.

There is clearly no bubble, and never was.

Just a genuine shortage of houses.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Their arguments don't stack up.

There is clearly no bubble, and never was.

Just a genuine shortage of houses.

Hamish, it's very amusing to see you claim other peoples arguments don't stack up and then sign off with "there was never a UK house price boom".

I've never seen you try to deny this boom before now. I have though, seen your write about the boom you now suggest never happened hundreds of times.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Hamish, it's very amusing to see you claim other peoples arguments don't stack up and then sign off with "there was never a UK house price boom".

I've never seen you try to deny this boom before now. I have though, seen your write about the boom you now suggest never happened hundreds of times.

I Said "no house price bubble".

There is a difference between a boom and a bubble.

They're not the same thing.

You use the words interchangeably. So no wonder you're confused.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I Said "no house price bubble".

There is a difference between a boom and a bubble.

They're not the same thing.

You use the words interchangeably. So no wonder you're confused.

I do, I apologise, dunno why I keep doing it!

So I shall repost with an apology for the above....

Hamish, it's very amusing to see you claim other peoples arguments don't stack up and then sign off with "there was never a UK house price bubble".

I've never seen you try to deny this bubble before now. I have though, seen your write about the bubble you now suggest never happened hundreds of times.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I do, I apologise, dunno why I keep doing it!

So I shall repost with an apology for the above....

Hamish, it's very amusing to see you claim other peoples arguments don't stack up and then sign off with "there was never a UK house price bubble".

I've never seen you try to deny this bubble before now. I have though, seen your write about the bubble you now suggest never happened hundreds of times.

And you're at it again.....

I've written about the boom hundreds of times.

I've frequently stated there wasn't a bubble in UK house prices.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Here's me explaining it to you lot way back in 2010......

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No. They aren't.

You are making the erroneous assumption that any large rise in property prices must be a bubble. Whereas reality is that if the underlying fundamentals support prices, then it is not a bubble at all.

Parts of China have prices at 88 times average earnings. That is likely to be a bubble.

In Japan, prior to the last crash, property in some areas was selling for one million US$ per square metre. That was a bubble.

Australia has prices far higher than the UK's, relative to income. And they've now been above 3.5 times income for 25 years, even in their crashes. But the financial crisis had little impact, and prices then rose back through peak and to new heights. The fundamentals of supply and demand show that is probably not a bubble.

And the UK's prices, with massive housing shortages, fast growing population, record low levels of housebuilding, and price rises of over 10% in the last 14 months, despite some of the toughest lending standards in history, media doom and gloom, mortgage rationing to the extreme, and in the middle of a recession whilst unemployment rose and the economy fell, also clearly show this is not a bubble.

Graham_Devon

Fair play Hamish. Fair play.

You are, however, the only person I've ever seen try to suggest that there wasn't a house price bubble, and never has been. (Though not doubt someone will be along very shortly to back you up and claim there was no bubble).

Even Gordon Brown accepted it.

Now, could you explain how gold was in a bubble, and house prices weren't?

Loughton_Monkey

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I do, I apologise, dunno why I keep doing it!

Nor does anyone else.

May I strongly suggest that you quietly sign out, and go here:

http://www.urban75.com/Mag/bubble.html

It's one of those little harmless things that might calm you down.

let the hours waste away with the
PERPETUAL BUBBLEWRAP!

For the ultimate in time wasting, simply roll your mouse over the bubble wrap to see and hear a satisfying 'pop' as the bubble bursts.

Trouble is, the bubbles come right back after a bit, so it is - we are proud to announce - well and truly useless!

I think it will be a better use of your time, to keep popping all these bubbles. Very therapeutic. And just as you want, they all come back again, so you can live in a world of constant bubbles. Just what you want.

Just seems appropriate somehow.

The rest of us can keep the real world ticking over.



Boom Boom!