"No House Price Bubble in UK" - says top economist....

ukcarper

Percy1983 wrote: »

If there is such a massive shortage of homes where are all the homeless people?

Not that old one

CLAPTON

shortchanged wrote: »

I'm referring to rise in the amateur property developer, you know the Sarah Beeny worshippers etc. Small scale but a bandwagon that many jumped on.

so no bubble then; just a few amateurs making a nice living out of being landlords and with the prospects of capital gains too?

CLAPTON

Percy1983 wrote: »

If there is such a massive shortage of homes where are all the homeless people?

assuming you are not trolling and really want to know;
then, when rental/house price rise, people respond by increasing the number of people per property
so young people may return home to parents
people wanting a one bed flat settle for a room in a shared flat, immigrants live in garden sheds etc

OK now?

Percy1983

CLAPTON wrote: »

assuming you are not trolling and really want to know;
then, when rental/house price rise, people respond by increasing the number of people per property
so young people may return home to parents
people wanting a one bed flat settle for a room in a shared flat, immigrants live in garden sheds etc

OK now?

I guess we aren't hitting too much over occupation of properties just yet.

By all means I agree we need more houses to keep up with what people want, but I don't think we are at breaking point yet.

CLAPTON

Percy1983 wrote: »

I guess we aren't hitting too much over occupation of properties just yet.

By all means I agree we need more houses to keep up with what people want, but I don't think we are at breaking point yet.

the topic is about supply and demand and mortgages and houses prices not about people dying in the streets.

Percy1983

I guess its how to we define demand.

It is those who simply want something or those who want and can afford something?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Percy1983 wrote: »

By all means I agree we need more houses to keep up with what people want, but I don't think we are at breaking point yet.

The past.

David Pretty CBE, co-author of the report, said:

“Our analysis shows that in England we could be approaching a 1 million housing shortfall by the end of 2010.

With production at its lowest level in 80 years, the gap between housing supply and demand will, this year alone, be around 150,000 homes, equivalent to the size of Nottingham.”

“If we ignore this problem and reduce public intervention and investment in new supply of both private and affordable housing, there could be serious social and economic consequences, not least record housing waiting lists and more pain for beleaguered first time buyers.

http://www.tcpa.org.uk/resources.php?action=resource&id=639


The present.

Bureau data shows that in the past year alone, spending by 12 of Britain’s biggest cities on B&B rooms increased by 25.34% to £91.1m.

Jack Dromey MP, Labour’s Shadow Housing Minister, said: ‘Ministers’ failure to get a grip on this crisis is causing misery for tens of thousands of families who are being uprooted from their local communities, friends, schools and places of work.

‘Local councils are being forced into making impossible decisions, placing families in completely inappropriate bed and breakfasts. And taxpayers are footing the bill to the tune of millions of pounds every week.’

The Bureau’s data shows the amount spent on all temporary accommodation across 12 of Britain’s biggest cities was up 5.7% to £464m last year. And London councils have budgeted for further significant overall rises this financial year.

http://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/2013/05/19/uk-housing-crisis-costing-taxpayer-2bn/



The future.

Britain’s failure to build enough homes is set to put a colossal strain on the housing market when the Noughties baby-boomers hit adulthood in 2020, a report claims today.

Births in England between 2001 and 2011 totalled 6.9 million, a rise of 22 per cent on the same period a decade earlier, but only 1.6 million new homes were completed over the same period. Now a report from the National Housing Federation reveals that the jump in births, combined with a decade of insufficient house-building, could see millions of young people struggle with rising housing prices and rents, or live with their parents for decades.

It predicts that first-time buyer house prices will increase by 42 per cent by 2020, and estimates that rents in 2020 will be 44 per cent higher than they are today – forcing 3.7 million young people to remain living at home with their parents.

“We failed to fix the housing market for the Eighties baby-boomers because we simply didn’t build enough homes,” said Ruth Davison, National Housing Federation director. “Even with decent jobs, many are struggling to raise a mortgage deposit or pay their rent.

“The situation will be even worse for the Millennium children. If we expect them to take over the reins and drive the country forward, we must provide them with the foundations for a bright, stable future. We need to build more homes now.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/millennium-children-will-face-acute-housing-shortage-8725453.html

CLAPTON

Percy1983 wrote: »

I guess its how to we define demand.

It is those who simply want something or those who want and can afford something?

define it how you like depending upon what you are trying to say

but as far as (house) prices are concerned, 'demand ' means a willing buyer with the money to make a purchase

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I'm sure it was just yesterday that Graham was claiming some other definition for a bubble....

Anyway, as per the definition above, there was no bubble in UK house prices even back in 2007.

Just a genuine shortage of supply when compared to population growth and household formation.

We were, and why you have chosen to ignore that thread and create 2 others carrying the argument on I have no idea.

Graham_Devon

CLAPTON wrote: »

define it how you like depending upon what you are trying to say

but as far as (house) prices are concerned, 'demand ' means a willing buyer with the money to make a purchase

Same as every bubble in history. Including the poppy boom.

Houses are nothing special when it comes to talk of bubbles or booms and are the same as any other commodity.