HTB: "Well timed and targeted" says ITEM, "little risk of bubble"

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

If prices rise because there really isn't enough housing to meet underlying increases in population and household formation, then it's a rational market behaving efficiently, and by definition it's not a bubble.

In which case, it wouldn't have popped........

.....But it did.

So it was.

Feel free to blame mortgage "rationing", but you'll only be confronted with the inevitable, i.e. what happened before mortgage "rationing" leading to price rises due to the extra demand....

And I'm certainly not having difficulty understanding. Put simply, I understand your point, I'm just stating it's poppycock. You appear to be confusing "understanding" with "agreeing", something you often do to make out others who don't agree with you are somehow inferior to you.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A genuine supply shortage is completely different to a speculative mania.

How is it completely different? In both scenarios you have people willing to pay increasing prices for the same goods.

One is houses, one is poppies. It makes no difference, the outcome is the same. Houses are no different to poppies in this respect. People with a genuine desire for the product paid ever increasing prices to get it.

Supply is always short, hence the bloody price bubble! And indeed, there WAS a LOT of speculative buying in the housign market pre 2007.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

In which case, it wouldn't have popped........

.....But it did.

So it was.

Oh dear Graham....

Those crashaholics really did get you believing their tosh, hook line and sinker.

ANY housing market will fall when you remove 70% of funding, have a global recession and credit crunch, and see unemployment soar, whether or not it is overvalued.

The fact that prices rapidly rebounded and then sat for several years at just 10% below peak, despite severe mortgage rationing, just goes to prove my point.

And the fact that rents soared to record highs once mortgage rationing kicked in, despite rising unemployment and falling real wages, proves it even more.

Now here we are with lending still severely rationed, and prices are shooting up again.

It's a shortage.

Plain and simple.

Which means it's not a bubble.

Linda_D_2

Graham_Devon wrote: »

In which case, it wouldn't have popped........

.....But it did.

So it was.

Feel free to blame mortgage "rationing", but you'll only be confronted with the inevitable, i.e. what happened before mortgage "rationing" leading to price rises due to the extra demand....

And I'm certainly not having difficulty understanding. Put simply, I understand your point, I'm just stating it's poppycock. You appear to be confusing "understanding" with "agreeing", something you often do to make out others who don't agree with you are somehow inferior to you.

Graham why have you started this 'complete nonsense' profile just to thank yourself like you did with the re-wired rubbish? It just undermines your credibility when your actual posts are good and totally rip apart hamish. You don't need these other profiles.

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It's a shortage.

Plain and simple.

Which means it's not a bubble.

Right.

So no bubble has ever existed then.

I'm not sure of any commodity that's "bubbled" that has been in great supply and had little demand.

But according to you, if the commodity is in short supply, it's not a bubble. Therefore, no bubble has ever existed.

Cheers Hamish. I've learnt a lot tonight. :undecided

Graham_Devon

Linda_D wrote: »

Graham why have you started this 'complete nonsense' profile just to thank yourself like you did with the re-wired rubbish? It just undermines your credibility when your actual posts are good and totally rip apart hamish. You don't need these other profiles.

I love rewired.

But why on earth would I create "complete nonsense" to thank myself with? It's one of these lot tagging every single one of my posts as complete nonsnese.

Which is sweet. And actually, quite amusing!

I wouldn't have lasted this long with multi ID's.

ruggedtoast

Hamish will never accept that property has inflated into bubble territory by artificial injections of credit, and historical lax lending.

Even, apparently, the government giving people 4/5 of their deposit, paying their mortgage for them if they lose their job and pouring billions of state cash into the banking sector to ensure that no poor banker feels the pain of any borrower who does somehow manage to default, won't change his mind.

Draw from that what you will.

ukcarper

In relation to earnings prices are now about 25% above long term average and reached about 50% in last boom not a bubble in my opinion and the so called pop Graham referred to did not even reduce prices to long term average.

ruggedtoast

ukcarper wrote: »

In relation to earnings prices are now about 25% above long term average and reached about 50% in last boom not a bubble in my opinion and the so called pop Graham referred to did not even reduce prices to long term average.

Rubbish.

The average for a dual income family is £40,000 per year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15197860

The median income for men in their 30s is less than £24k.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_United_Kingdom

You are looking at a minor miracle to find anywhere in the SE near anywhere with jobs for less than £230,000.

But then, you know that. Don't you.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Hamish will never accept that property has inflated into bubble territory by artificial injections of credit, and historical lax lending..

I won't accept that.

Because it's complete and utter nonsense.

We've just had 5 years of some of the tightest lending standards and most restricted mortgage availability in 50 years.

When you remove 70% of lending from the market, and prices spend the next 5 years hovering just 10% or so below peak, it wasn't credit that drove them up to begin with.

ukcarper

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Rubbish.

The average for a dual income family is £40,000 per year.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-15197860

The median income for men in their 30s is less than £24k.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_in_the_United_Kingdom

You are looking at a minor miracle to find anywhere in the SE near anywhere with jobs for less than £230,000.


But then, you know that. Don't you.

I used nationwide figures I'm not sure what you want for £230k but I'm in south east and you would easily find property for that.

Average semi £154k and terrace £125k Land Reg August