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HTB: "Well timed and targeted" says ITEM, "little risk of bubble"
Comments
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You can take it any way you like.
Prices are rising, the economy is recovering, unemployment is falling.
It's game over for the bears.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Low double digit HPI for a few years wouldn't be a boom.
Just the early stages of a long overdue recovery.
In the early stages of the last boom we had several years of annual HPI somewhere between 20% and 30%.
10% shows a lack of ambition if you ask me....
I reckon, to most, normal folk, 10%+ HPI would be classed as a boom.
If you are going around disagreeing with everyone simply because you don't believe anything under 20-30% HPI a year is a boom, then fine. But it's frankly a bit ridiculous if you ask me. A boom needs to be looked at in relation to other fundamentals, such as salary increases. If HPI was running at 10% and wage increaes at 12%, it wouldn't really be an issue. But HPI running at 10% when wage increases are running at 1.6% is a little worrying and therefore could qualify as booming, especially in terms of racing away from earnings.
And we never had several years of 20-30% HPI. We had 2, at best.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »I reckon, to most, normal folk, 10%+ HPI would be classed as a boom.
If you are going around disagreeing with everyone simply because you don't believe anything under 20-30% HPI a year is a boom, then fine. But it's frankly a bit ridiculous if you ask me. A boom needs to be looked at in relation to other fundamentals, such as salary increases. If HPI was running at 10% and wage increaes at 12%, it wouldn't really be an issue. But HPI running at 10% when wage increases are running at 1.6% is a little worrying and therefore could qualify as booming, especially in terms of racing away from earnings.
And we never had several years of 20-30% HPI. We had 2, at best.
Are you deliberately confusing boom and bubble.0 -
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Graham_Devon wrote: »Not deliberately, no, though can see I did use the wrong term.
Everything I have said in my posts applies for the word "bubble" though. So just switch the words, the comments are the same.
There is no bubble never has been.0 -
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Graham_Devon wrote: »I'm not sure how to respond to this. Seems so absurd, I think it's best just left.
What, that there was no bubble in UK house prices?
That is correct.
Not all examples of rising prices are bubbles.
If the rise in prices is caused by a genuine supply/demand imbalance rather than a speculative mania, then by definition it is not a bubble.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
It's only defined a bubble by those who don't understand the simplest of concepts and constantly post urban myth doom posts on an Internet forum.HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »What, that there was no bubble in UK house prices?
That is correct.
Not all examples of rising prices are bubbles.
If the rise in prices is caused by a genuine supply/demand imbalance rather than a speculative mania, then by definition it is not a bubble.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »What, that there was no bubble in UK house prices?
That is correct.
Not all examples of rising prices are bubbles.
If the rise in prices is caused by a genuine supply/demand imbalance rather than a speculative mania, then by definition it is not a bubble.
You know what Hamish? Sometimes I just cannot believe what you will argue.
Every bubble, whether it's in housing or on in the wider markets is caused by a supply / demand imbalance. That's the cause of the bubble in the first place.
What you mean by "genuine" is anyones guess. But mine is that have your own idea of what a bubble is in order to form the opinion that no such thing can ever exist in housing. Which is, of course, poppycock.0 -
Graham_Devon wrote: »Every bubble, whether it's in housing or on in the wider markets is caused by a supply / demand imbalance. That's the cause of the bubble in the first place.
.
It seems you're having difficulty understanding....
A genuine supply shortage is completely different to a speculative mania.
If prices rise because there really isn't enough housing to meet underlying increases in population and household formation, then it's a rational market behaving efficiently, and by definition it's not a bubble.
If prices rise even when there is adequate supply to meet those underlying factors, then it's a speculative bubble.
Not all price increases are bubbles. Surely you can understand that?“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0
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