The next boom.....

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

1975 to 2007 = 4.1%

1975 to 2013 = 2.9%

That's the downward trend.

So projecting forward for another 20 years at 2.9% doesn't appear sustainable.

Projecting forward at 2.9% may well not be sustainable but your analysis of trends doesn't support this.

Nationwide trend in real house prices since 1975 is 2.9% which incorporates a number of ups and downs and, importantly, the downside of easily the worst financial crisis we've seen during that period. Pointing out that there's been a downwards trend during this time is hardly the best place to start predicting the next 22 years.

Only 6 years in and already we're seeing house prices increasing by more than inflation in only a tentative recovery. It doesn't take much imagination to see the 2.9% trend being continued during a sustained recovery in a system where supply remains a bottleneck.

Whilst 2.9% may not be achieved for the next 22 years it's still not that crazy an assertion. I remember the '90's being told I was mental buying a house at the, then, current prices. Nothing would surprise me about the UK housing market but in 22 years it seems much more likely that we'll have seen a positive growth, in real terms, of +2.9% than -2.9%.

John1993_2

Dribley wrote: »

I'm beginning to think your a troll.I expect you live in a bedsit in the Isle of Dogs, surfing the Internet whilst your wife goes to work!

The Isle of Dogs is not exactly bedsit land. It's one of the most expensive paces to live on the planet, with many flats costing over a million pounds.

For example this rather modest 2 bedroom flat at South Quay is up for £1,350,000

http://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/30323889?search_identifier=e56028c16bcd556c3f186d2853c6bf38

IveSeenTheLight

Thrugelmir wrote: »

1975 to 2007 = 4.1%

1975 to 2013 = 2.9%

That's the downward trend.

So projecting forward for another 20 years at 2.9% doesn't appear sustainable.

Where's your facts for 1975 to 2007 = 4.1%?
I seem to recall the trend never reached that high.
Did you simply take two data points and calculate the trend, without factoring in the variances?

I did a quick search and although I can't quickly find an adequate link in 2007 (and a pity the Nationwide only keep their reports back to 2009), I've found some data from Apr 2008

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=10859137&postcount=34



Even back then the trend was c2.9%.
Currently the trend is c2.8%

This is because the trend factors in the average of the prices over time, factors in the peaks and troughs (which you have not done).

You appear to have simply chosen two points in time to try and make a negative point and is such a basic flaw for someone of your intelligence.

IveSeenTheLight

wotsthat wrote: »

Whilst 2.9% may not be achieved for the next 22 years it's still not that crazy an assertion. I remember the '90's being told I was mental buying a house at the, then, current prices. Nothing would surprise me about the UK housing market but in 22 years it seems much more likely that we'll have seen a positive growth, in real terms, of +2.9% than -2.9%.

Currently the trend is c2.8%.
I can envisage this may drop to c2.7% over time.

Loughton_Monkey

Conrad wrote: »

I usually agree with you monkey, but this post is bizarre. Cameron and co care deeply about the economy and Britain's place in the world,

......

There wont be a brain drain, this is one of the best and safest places on Earth to invest and our creativity and science are unsurpassed.

Without repeating your full post to save space, you paint a bullish and bright picture of UK. You are 'waving the flag' well.

Nothing wrong with that.

But before I changed my view significantly, I would like to see all this stuff you mention show up in hard cash. Something nearer to a positive balance of payments.

You paint a rather poor picture of Asians. Full of sweatshops without creativity. A bit of that, yes, but I happen to think that the double-digit growth over many years didn't happen by accident. They know what they're doing. I think language barriers are holding them back a bit, but that's improving rapidly as they accept English as the worldwide standard business language.

You almost make my point for me. Indeed there may be some 'creative' niches in which we excel. China (etc.) may recognise this. I think they do. Don't you believe they have the money to cream off these people from the west? Isn't China's appetite for foreign 'joint ventures' one of their ways of moving such creativity more their way?

Mr._Pricklepants

chucknorris wrote: »

You are Nearlynew there is no mistake.

I thought that was common knowledge. The naerlynew account was put on hold when all his silly "100% gauranteed" predictions turned out to be fantasy.

chucknorris wrote: »

Stop avoiding the question, what do you do for your mother?

dryhat/naerlynew is some big shot investor in bitcoin, chuck, and I'm sure his wealth is happily shared with mammy dryhat/naerlynew.
We're talking big money here, you know. IIRC, he's got about 500 quid on the line.:rotfl:

chucknorris

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

I thought that was common knowledge. The naerlynew account was put on hold when all his silly "100% gauranteed" predictions turned out to be fantasy.



dryhat/naerlynew is some big shot investor in bitcoin, chuck, and I'm sure his wealth is happily shared with mammy dryhat/naerlynew.
We're talking big money here, you know. IIRC, he's got about 500 quid on the line.:rotfl:

Well he is obviously very bitter about something.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

chucknorris wrote: »

Well he is obviously very bitter about something.

They all are at the moment.

The realisation that we're on the verge of a log overdue economic recovery and then the biggest housing boom of all time (largely thanks to the very policies they cheered on destroying supply for the last 6 years) has finally hit them.

Thrugelmir

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Why are you picking a peak (1975) and a trough* (2013) /

If the forward projection for the next 20 years is 2.9% based on the trend line 1975 -2013. Then it's like saying the distortion created by the credit boom never happened. I'm merely pointing out that the trend is already downwards.

Loughton_Monkey

Thrugelmir wrote: »

If the forward projection for the next 20 years is 2.9% based on the trend line 1975 -2013. Then it's like saying the distortion created by the credit boom never happened. I'm merely pointing out that the trend is already downwards.

You need to look up "Regression Analysys"

ps: not to be confused with the financial "repression" we are undergoing (according to Graham) as a result of low interest rates