The next boom.....

chucky

Joeskeppi wrote: »

Looks to me like you're trying to find reason not to debate it to me.

It's called the Chewbacca Debating Technique, it really is worth a Google.

Loughton_Monkey

No projection of future HPI can be complete without considering the demographics. The last decade was 'interesting'. First half, population rising ~300K extra heads a year. Houses completed ~ 240K a year. The second half saw ~600K extra heads a year, while house completions barely reached 100K a year.

So given a 'mortgage feast' for as long as we can see, and given a fair wind on wage growth/affluence, it is very easy to assume that the backlog alone will take 3 to 5 years to satisfy. By which time I find it difficult to imagine. No doubt governments could easily predict 'natural' population growth from births/deaths but they can't predict net migration, and even harder to predict the housing requirements within the numbers.

The 2011 census shows 8,604,000 people in the age group 20 to 29. These are presumably the core of the active constituency of those wanting to be housed now. But there were approximately 1 million fewer [7,667,000] in the 10 to 19 category. So this will ease the demand somewhat as time marches on. I strongly suspect that net migration has peaked and will therefore tend to diminish the population as well.

So I can easily see a scenario of above inflation HPI for 5 years, and then some stagnation. However, this could easily be overlaid with renewed affluence - keeping the fires red hot....

There could equally be a dismal attrition of wealth instead, which might put the fire out completely. Personally, I wouldn't like to predict. But I hope the former.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

the demographics..

We've had a few threads on that.

I'll see if I can find one, but from memory, the last few years have seen a trough between generational bulges of FTB age people, and the next peak is due in the mid to late 2020's.

The trough after that will be mid 2030's, but even then at levels of around 15% higher than today.

In other words, the last few years have seen FTB-s have less competition for housing than they'll have again at any point in our lifetimes.


This article has been discussed before.....

http://brickonomics.building.co.uk/2011/10/this-decade-will-be-the-first-in-more-than-a-century-when-britain%E2%80%99s-homes-become-more-crowded/

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

And this picture puts things in perspective somewhat.....



Hardly a surprise prices took off after 1999, and are doing so again now.