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Debate House Prices


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The next boom.....

17810121317

Comments

  • Percy1983
    Percy1983 Posts: 5,244 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    chucky wrote: »
    Did your girlfriend not help you getting that mortgage by clearing all of your debts for you so that you were debt free and then you sponged off her until you paid back the original debt?

    Nope you must be mixing me up with somebody else, we moved debts both ways between us and which reduced all our debts to 0% which helped clear them much quicker which benefited us both massively.

    Anyway sorry to bring an old post back, but there one does seem to have turned into an insultathon anyway.

    Don't worry be happy! :D
    Have my first business premises (+4th business) 01/11/2017
    Quit day job to run 3 businesses 08/02/2017
    Started third business 25/06/2016
    Son born 13/09/2015
    Started a second business 03/08/2013
    Officially the owner of my own business since 13/01/2012
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    No it doesn't. It suggests that Ryanair's profits might be lower than their investors were expecting because their forward bookings are weaker than Ryanair was previously projecting.

    Ryanair gave it's previous update at the end of June. In just 8 weeks something has hit them hard. As their own downgrading to say the least is severe. £30 million (6%) is significant in terms of their results.

    Companies never look good when they have to back track.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    wotsthat wrote: »
    Hmmm. I'm not convinced that taking a single point in 2007

    1975 to 2007 = 4.1%

    1975 to 2013 = 2.9%

    That's the downward trend.

    So projecting forward for another 20 years at 2.9% doesn't appear sustainable.
  • Conrad
    Conrad Posts: 33,137 Forumite
    10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    edited 5 September 2013 at 12:44AM
    Just a small correction for you, Hamish....

    I have no data to argue with your projection, but my main concern would be that HPI will be driven by future prosperity, and in particular real wage growth. This in turn depends upon quite an ambitious (in my view) turnaround in 'UK Ltd.'

    Then, of course, demographics and planning consent will play a significant part. Imagine the difference (up to 2030, say) of a consistent net migration increase of 300K plus annually, coupled with smarter and more effective nimbyism - compared with the reverse of minus 300K coupled with a future government really unlocking thousands of acres of brownfield and a few greenfield for housebuilding...

    House prices will 'lag' all of the above.

    Being a cynical and miserable old b*****d, I believe that Asia and S America will economically wipe the floor with ailing 'Nanny State' economies which allow 50%+ of the economy be driven by 650 self-seeking politicians, advised by an even more self-seeking bunch of mandarins - none of whom gives a monkey's cuss about the economy beyond their own front doors [save for a cursory nod every 5 years at election time]....

    It would be absolutely no surprise to me whatsoever to see - say 2020 on - the largest 'brain drain' in history as literally millions leave UK for good, seeking wealth (and weather) in foreign climes where they can earn a packet without someone taking 50% out because they know better how to spend it.

    Might affect house prices somewhat?


    I usually agree with you monkey, but this post is bizarre. Cameron and co care deeply about the economy and Britain's place in the world, though I can see taking swipes at them is always a popular button pusher whether on here or QT.

    This idea Britain is going darn the pan is nothing new, I've heard it all my life. Many economists and talking heads have predicted the same fate for America since the 1960's and so far they've all been wrong.

    I suspect they vastly underestimate the creativity of the yanks and ourselves. Sure the Chinese are adept at learning by rote and seemingly enjoy working harder but for example when I was in Eastern Europe last week the bulk of the 125 channels we were able to watch, contained either British or US programmes and music, albeit overdubbed quite often.

    It's easy to dismiss this subtle stuff but it points to a deeper truth, one that tells us the UK and US will be around and highly successful for some time yet.

    The world consumes formula 1, Premiership Footie, British insurance, British naval and navigation expertise, the list is endless.
    When I travel to far flung place I hear British or American music being played, not Chinese. Everything from polka dot bikini to Japanese Boy and lots of Elton John.

    The world consumes American culture - Diary Of A Wimpey Kid, Transformers, Lady Gaga, P Diddy and SAW, the latter of which is not just a film dynasty but now a featured ride in many a theme park. This stuff means more than bolting lampshades together and is highly influential on the worlds young
    .

    We just do most things a lot better, whether it's Radio 4 or the SAS, worldwide weather info or studying climate change.


    Bare in mind things like a lot more textile making is returning to our shores because the world wants British textiles. Why, because we're good at setting trends and being individual. Same with a lot of hifi and studio gear now.

    What other nation has a David Attenborough or a Richard Dawkins, a Will Self or a Ricky Gervais? Sure the Chinese work long hours bolting cshit together and learning like parrots but are they truly world leaders and trend setters in the main?

    There wont be a brain drain, this is one of the best and safest places on Earth to invest and our creativity and science are unsurpassed.
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,795 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    edited 5 September 2013 at 7:10AM
    dryhat wrote: »
    The first sentence says it all really.


    (as an aside; I doubt you could even get a full time lecturing job. But even if you could, you would probably just get a bigger mortgage and be in the same position anyway)

    I rest my case.
    No further questions.
    goodnight.


    My first sentence states that I could pay off all but one of the mortgages, that should tell you that I have very low gearing, god knows what your conclusions you seem to be drawing from it, but that indeed is the situation, which is obviously a good financial position to be in.

    It isn’t very logical of you to assume that part time university lecturers work part time because they can’t get fulltime jobs. I’d love to hear your theory on that one, please do tell me more, do you imagine that universities have lower standards for fractional appointments? On the one hand you are trying to have a go at me that I am still working instead of taking it easy, but on the other hand also having a go because I work part time? Again your logic seems flawed.

    I don’t need to get a mortgage, the potential house purchase that kicked all this off would be bought for cash. The reason for considering/deciding buying another house is that we have cash that is earning very low interest and more cash about to earn less interest as bonds mature, well below the inflation rate. You call it greed, I call it financial planning. So tell me what would you do with a substantial amount of cash earning less interest than inflation?
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • vivatifosi
    vivatifosi Posts: 18,746 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Mortgage-free Glee! PPI Party Pooper
    Conrad wrote: »

    What other nation has a David Attenborough or a Richard Dawkins, a Will Self or a Ricky Gervais? Sure the Chinese work long hours bolting cshit together and learning like parrots but are they truly world leaders and trend setters in the main?

    There wont be a brain drain, this is one of the best and safest places on Earth to invest and our creativity and science are unsurpassed.

    You raise some interesting points Conrad. Many oriental economies have turned themselves around by being 'fast followers', able to see trends quickly but not first movers. Countries like Japan, which are further along that path, have progressed to being leading edge, particularly in areas like tech. Moving along that path though is not easy. Particularly if you have a culture that does not support individualism or risk taking. Further, it helps the US and UK that our culture and language are the ones most adopted by the countries of the world.

    The music industry is a case in point. Pre Apple, Japan and Sony dominated the device market. Very good at miniaturization. However in terms of content for said devices Japan was a bit part player. People tended to spend more on content than devices,I've seen figures of 7x as much but not sure if this is still current. That's why Sony bought its way into the content market, only for the deity that is Apple to come along and move the goalposts.

    Anyhow, I digress from the theme of the thread. Suffice to say we need to continue to do these things, as, as I said on the first page, house prices should be a lagging indicator. Housing should not be a driver of economic growth in itself.
    Please stay safe in the sun and learn the A-E of melanoma: A = asymmetry, B = irregular borders, C= different colours, D= diameter, larger than 6mm, E = evolving, is your mole changing? Most moles are not cancerous, any doubts, please check next time you visit your GP.
  • chucknorris
    chucknorris Posts: 10,795 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper
    vivatifosi wrote: »
    Anyhow, I digress from the theme of the thread. Suffice to say we need to continue to do these things, as, as I said on the first page, house prices should be a lagging indicator. Housing should not be a driver of economic growth in itself.

    I tend to agree with you, I think house prices rise on the back of a successful economy rather than drive it. I'm not as optimistic as Hamish, I think that in real terms prices won't reach much higher than 2007 without good reason. At the moment I can't see what would drive prices much higher (in real terms) than 2007, surely affordability was quite stretched then. I hope history proves Hamish right but at the moment I just can't see it.
    Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop
  • chewmylegoff
    chewmylegoff Posts: 11,469 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker
    Thrugelmir wrote: »
    1975 to 2007 = 4.1%

    1975 to 2013 = 2.9%

    That's the downward trend.

    So projecting forward for another 20 years at 2.9% doesn't appear sustainable.

    Why are you picking a peak (1975) and a trough* (2013) and working out the average increase between the two. Wouldn't it be more valid to either calculate peak-peak, trough-trough or between two points on the trend line? Working off the trend line it looks to me to be about 4% between 1975 and 2013?

    * = it looks like a trough to me but obviously it could be part of the bull trap on the 'famous' graph.
  • gazter
    gazter Posts: 931 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary Combo Breaker

    and always will unless we find a way to abolish death.

    Ed Balls is looking at it, but isnt wanting to commit himself yet until he knows the numbers.
  • gazter
    gazter Posts: 931 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary Combo Breaker
    How long, then, before we were back where we started? 5 years?

    Within five years 20% of the population would have died in the gulags/concentration camps that would have to be inevitably setup to manage such a process.
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