The inevitable fall in house prices will cost us dear

MiserlyMartin

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

In

....UK house prices should be much higher than they are today, and only a wholly artificial mortgage famine has been keeping them repressed.

Nothing to do with an increase in unemployment, falling wages, a recession and lack of confidence then...

House prices by average wage multiples are now lower then 2007 but in 2007 they were way too high. They are still around 6 times salary today. The only thing that makes mortgages manageable is the low interest rate policy, but soon that will change. Many will be trapped by this and some stuck also with equity loans which they will surely default on when the fall in house prices resumes as rates rise, the props are removed and/or the economy worsens. The taxpayer is on the hook for this. Even Brown couldn't have come up with a scheme so stupid.

The only reason I can see for buying a house today at these prices is using it as an inflationary hedge if you have the cash.. I predict a fall in values in the years to come but if it will go back to beyond 2013 Q1 is anyone's guess. In real terms probably. Lots of unknowns at work.

chucky

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

I predict a fall in values in the years to come but if it will go back to beyond 2013 Q1 is anyone's guess. In real terms probably. Lots of unknowns at work.

You've been saying the same thing each and every year and got it wrong each and every time. One day you will be right, not because you've been clever or intelligent but because a stopped clock is right twice a day.

MiserlyMartin

I don't think you know what I have said every year unless you have taken the trouble to go and read and analyse all my old posts, which I think would be rather sad and a waste of your time. I think you mean other what all the housing bears in general have been saying. Well there was a fall they were right. The only reason the market did not fully correct is due to government and BofE interference and manipulation, you must know this even though you wouldn't admit it in order to score little points in these pointless tit for tat arguements you like to have here between housing bulls and bears. I am not interested in doing this. I would rather talk fact with people who do not have a vested interest either way and are not there only to promote their investment in the market.

StevieJ

I am not sure that mortgage rates will automatically shadow an increase in base rates?

This does not look sustainable in the long run, given that the main determinants of house prices are wages, which aren’t growing, and interest rates, which are at historic lows and eventually must rise. A rise in rates any time soon, as proposed irresponsibly by Ros Altmann and Andrew Sentance, would inevitably cause an immediate and deep house price crash.

OffGridLiving

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

The only reason the market did not fully correct is due to government and BofE interference and manipulation

I must admit this hackneyed response if getting extremely tiresome. Did you all really think that the government and BoE would sit back on allow the economy to collapse? If you didn't factor government intervention into your forecasting then you made a serious miscalculation.

As they say on Scoobydo, "We would have gotten away with it too, if it hadn't been for those pesky [STRIKE]kids[/STRIKE]politicians".

Graham_Devon

OffGridLiving wrote: »

I must admit this hackneyed response if getting extremely tiresome. Did you all really think that the government and BoE would sit back on allow the economy to collapse? If you didn't factor government intervention into your forecasting then you made a serious miscalculation.

As they say on Scoobydo, "We would have gotten away with it too, if it hadn't been for those pesky [STRIKE]kids[/STRIKE]politicians".

I suppose you did factor them all in, you were just keeping them all a secret until after these events happened??

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I suppose you did factor them all in, you were just keeping them all a secret until after these events happened??

I didn't expect the government and the BoE to sit idly by whilst we all went to hell in a handcart. Rather surprised you thought this might have been a secret.

Thrugelmir

StevieJ wrote: »

I am not sure that mortgage rates will automatically shadow an increase in base rates?

Mortgage interest rates could well rise before base rates change. If you been following UK Gilts, German Bunds and US Treasuries over the past 6 months, you'll know what I mean.

chucky

MiserlyMartin wrote: »

I don't think you know what I have said every year unless you have taken the trouble to go and read and analyse all my old posts, which I think would be rather sad and a waste of your time. I think you mean other what all the housing bears in general have been saying. Well there was a fall they were right. The only reason the market did not fully correct is due to government and BofE interference and manipulation, you must know this even though you wouldn't admit it in order to score little points in these pointless tit for tat arguements you like to have here between housing bulls and bears. I am not interested in doing this. I would rather talk fact with people who do not have a vested interest either way and are not there only to promote their investment in the market.

Errr I have something called a memory which is obviously something that is very selective for you.

There's something called a Search function at the to of this page which I searched 2011 under your User Name and it amused me some of your posts like when you claimed that prices had another 17% to fall at the end of 2009. Put it this way, I wasn't wrong with my comments...

You're like a broken record (like the people that Thanked your post).

The Following 3 Users Say Thank You to MiserlyMartin For This Useful Post: Show me >>
Graham_Devon (Today), re-wired (Today), Thrugelmir (Today)

You're user name suits you.

Have a Miserly weekend Martin.

OffGridLiving

wotsthat wrote: »

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I suppose you did factor them all in, you were just keeping them all a secret until after these events happened??

I didn't expect the government and the BoE to sit idly by whilst we all went to hell in a handcart. Rather surprised you thought this might have been a secret.

Exactly this. You don't have to know exactly what the government will do, you just need to know they will do something. It's just not that difficult to understand, so I'm surprised you came back with that. Oh... Hold on... LOL, are you muddling again? Pretending not to understand basic cncenpts so that we end up with 4 pages of muddle and frustration. Brilliant. Nice try GD, but I'm onto your game!! ;)