BoE Poll

mystic_trev

+25bp

Melissa177 wrote: »

I used to lurk on Fool, but haven't been on for a long time. My mother is a Motley Fool. I'm going out with a currency trader tonight, so I'll have a chat with him about where he sees the market heading.

That would be interesting. Don't :beer: too much and report back tomorrow!
I notice swap rates seem to be going up every week now!
http://www.swaprates.co.uk/

lisyloo

No Change

Are energy prices decreasing? Forward gas prices in Bloomberg show no priced in falls.

The falls I am referring to are here.

http://www.ukpower.co.uk/price%2Bupdates.asp

some recent reductions up to 16.5%.

I don't know what Bloomberg refers to. Is that wholesale prices?

Diesel for my car seems to be getting more expensive rather than cheaper too.

Don't have the figures to hand but remember you need to compare with 12 months ago (because that's what CPI measures) and not what you've seen at the petrol station the last couple of times.

Interest rate rises increase RPI so there is a chance that workers will demand higher wages when they see this, fuelling future inflation.

In some jobs perhaps but I know in my IT sectors that we can't make any demands.

but don't assume that rates will fall just because the BBC says so

Totally agree.
There are many factors that affect CPI and interest rates as we can see from the discussion.
I jsut thought it was indicative that perhaps previous interest rate rises were starting to work their way through and things weren't as rosy as they've appeared previously which means less pressure to raise rates.

There are a lot of good reasons why inflation could rise, e.g.:
rising gas prices due to tension between Russia and Europe;
rising oil prices from invasion/blockade of Iran by US;
rising food prices due to falling yields caused by drought in Australia and rising oil prices;
rising costs of imports due to pound falling from current highs;
etc.

I agree that all these things could happen as well as economic shocks like 9/11, hurricane Katrina, bird flu etc.
This might sound dramatic but they are all things that have actually happened. However I think we need to concentrate on the more likely outcomes and remember that we are comparing with prices 12 months ago (so even if petrol has gone up inthe last 3 it's not necessarily significant).

Interesting to see information from people like Melissa though.

Melissa177

No Change

Incidentally, Betfair is favouring the No Change option (1.17, versus 6 for +.25%). Betfair is pretty accurate usually (see the book "The Wisdom of Crowds")

I will ensure that I glean as much information from my date this evening for you all, lol. How romantic! :rotfl:

mr.broderick

No Change

Melissa177 wrote: »

Incidentally, Betfair is favouring the No Change option (1.17, versus 6 for +.25%). Betfair is pretty accurate usually (see the book "The Wisdom of Crowds")

I will ensure that I glean as much information from my date this evening for you all, lol. How romantic! :rotfl:

Whats her name mel?

michaels

No Change

Melissa177 wrote: »

Incidentally, Betfair is favouring the No Change option (1.17, versus 6 for +.25%). Betfair is pretty accurate usually (see the book "The Wisdom of Crowds")

I'd go with betfair over the press pundits as it seems if people put their own money on it they make better predictions.

Not sure where we are going beyond that though - I remember the inflation 'blip' under the last Tory govt, everyone kept predicting it would top out in single digits but in the end it went past 10%. On the fundamentals side real rates (measured against the RPI) are still ow by historical standards and despite media gong with the CPI headline the RPI still seems to drive wage settlements. The BoE ToR is only centred around the CPI so they can not directly target asset price booms unless they can factor a causal link into their cpi models house price inflation can not be directly factored in to modelling their decisions. A final wild card of course is BoE 'independence' - given that a certain Mr GB appoints you wouldn't you rather get the bad news on interest rate rises out the way before he becomes PM rather than welcoming him with a rise...

mystic_trev

+25bp

mr.broderick wrote: »

Whats her name mel?

broderick - why don't you take your stalking and insults somewhere else, you sad git.

plane_boy2000

No Change

No rise this month as BoE are to weak to do it two months in a row, however I predict that inflation will remain to high and more rises are on the way. I predict 6 - 6.25 by the end of the year.

High interest rate are a killer though to manufacturing - I work in a large engineering company who sell to a world wide audience in US$ - the high interest rates are keeping the pound strong against the US$ which is killing us. Every time the rate strengthens by 10 cents we wipe 1 BILLION dollars of our profit.

Still, just fixed my mortgage for 2 years so hopefully they will rise and then fall back when my fix is up................probably wishful thinking

wecanhelpu

No Change

mystic_trev wrote: »

broderick - why don't you take your stalking and insults somewhere else, you sad git.

Are we so obsessed with hous prices/economics that we can't even have a

laugh anymore?

mr.broderick

No Change

mystic_trev wrote: »

broderick - why don't you take your stalking and insults somewhere else, you sad git.

Mystic I will do that just as soon as you call something correctly...mystical you definitely are not sir.

ManAtHome

No Change

Another vote for "no change" - based on what they're likely to do, not what they should do (or should have done). Up 1/4% August and November - very MSE to just photocopy the minutes, cross out the 6 and write in 7, could save a few more quid on fares and lunches too!

July: 2 for a 1/4% rise, 7 for status quo (yeah, but have you seen 'em live...)