Net migration down nearly 100,000 over the year

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

angrypirate wrote: »

Hamish, right now there are 2 million people unemployed. Surely it is better to stop all unskilled immigration / throw out 2 million unskilled immigrants

No, just the opposite.

When you shrink the market by 2 million people and their families, then funnily enough most of the jobs they are currently taking/doing vanish as well.

So you still have 2 million unemployed.

But to make matters worse, you now also have 2 million fewer employed people contributing to tax revenues, and lower tax receipts from businesses, so the deficit worsens.

Dont forget immigrants are net financial contributors to society, on average, compared to the British born.

They have lower benefits claim rates, lower entry to social housing, cost less over their stay in the UK on average than the native born.

angrypirate

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No, just the opposite.

When you shrink the market by 2 million people and their families, then funnily enough the jobs they are currently taking/doing vanish as well.

So you still have 2 million unemployed.

But to make matters worse, you now also have 2 million fewer employed people contributing to tax revenues, and lower tax receipts from businesses, so the deficit worsens.

Dont forget immigrants are net financial contributors to society, on average, compared to the British born.

They have lower benefits claim rates, lower entry to social housing, cost less over their stay in the UK on average than the native born.

Codswallop. A very small number of those jobs may disappear but the majority will remain.

You're just concerned your portfolio of houses will drop in value.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

angrypirate wrote: »

Codswallop

Nope.

There were dramatically fewer unemployed people in this recession than there were in the last one, despite many millions of immigrants arriving since then.

If immigrants stole jobs from British people then there should be about 4 million more unemployed than there are.

The facts are that immigrants create jobs, create economic activity and create positive outcomes for the native born workers, including an increase in wages on average.

You're just concerned your portfolio of houses will drop in value.

And you just want prices to crash, and damn the consequences to society and the wider economy.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

You can illustrate this in a way that hopefully is simple enough for even an angry pirate to understand....

If you send home 2 million employed immigrants, and their spouses/partners, you are effectively reducing the adult working age population of the UK by around 10%. Plus a few hundred thousand kids, no doubt. Probably 3.5 million people in all.

The adult working age population are by far the biggest spenders in the UK.

So you are reducing spend in the economy by, not quite 10%, but probably in the region of 7% to 8%.

There are roughly 30 million employed people in the UK.

If you reduce spend in the economy by 7%, we'll need more or less 7% fewer people employed to achieve the same productivity.

7% of 30 million is..... Yep, slightly over 2 million.

So we could actually end up with an INCREASE in unemployment if we sent home 2 million immigrant workers.

angrypirate

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

You can illustrate this in a way that hopefully is simple enough for even an angry pirate to understand....

If you send home 2 million employed immigrants, and their spouses/partners, you are effectively reducing the adult working age population of the UK by around 10%. Plus a few hundred thousand kids, no doubt. Probably 3.5 million people in all.

The adult working age population are by far the biggest spenders in the UK.

So you are reducing spend in the economy by, not quite 10%, but probably in the region of 7% to 8%.

There are roughly 30 million employed people in the UK.

If you reduce spend in the economy by 7%, we'll need more or less 7% fewer people employed to achieve the same productivity.

7% of 30 million is..... Yep, slightly over 2 million.

So we could actually end up with an INCREASE in unemployment if we sent home 2 million immigrant workers.

Nice maths but extrapolation doesnt really work in this case.

Your maths doesnt take into account the significant temporary unskilled EU immigration where there is just the working spouse over here with the other back in the home country with the children, sending much of the money back home where much of the spending is done.

Granted there are also a large number of whole families over here but unskilled jobs typically pay less than average (often minimum wage) leaving families with less disposable income so are likely to be below average in terms of spending.

You also dont take into account the increase in spending by the former unemployed 2million who are now employed with a larger disposable income so therefore a greater spending power on the high street.

Then there is reduction of the benefits bill which will allow for an increase in spending by the government in areas such as infrastructure, further helping the economy.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

angrypirate wrote: »

Nice maths but extrapolation doesnt really work in this case.

Well quite, there are numerous complex and detailed studies showing that immigrants don't steal jobs form the native born, but I rather suspected a simple example might be more likely to get your attention.

Looks like I was right.:)

Your maths doesnt take into account the significant temporary unskilled EU immigration where there is just the working spouse over here with the other back in the home country with the children, sending much of the money back home where much of the spending is done.

Granted there are also a large number of whole families over here

Indeed.

And the two will balance out to something similar to the estimate I used.

unskilled jobs typically pay less than average (often minimum wage) leaving families with less disposable income so are likely to be below average in terms of spending.

Not as much as you'd think.

Below average income families also spend a greater percentage of their income in total, often all of it, and almost all with local shops and services.

Whereas someone like me wont spend a lot more than they do on food, haircuts, etc. But will spend a lot more on say, imported luxury goods, purchased online from overseas suppliers.

You also dont take into account the increase in spending by the former unemployed 2million who are now employed with a larger disposable income so therefore a greater spending power on the high street.

What increase in spending?

The jobs won't exist for them!

Then there is reduction of the benefits bill

How will the benefits bill reduce?

It'll stay the same at best, or maybe even increase, but now with fewer employed people to pay for it.

which will allow for an increase in spending by the government in areas such as infrastructure, further helping the economy.

Nonsense.

The government will have less money to spend, the deficit will worsen, and infrastructure will deteriorate.

Percy1983

Actually I see a 3 pronged strategy working quite well here, I will say I know this can't work as stage one isn't simple but stick with me.

1, with there is 2 million unemployed kick out 2 million immigrants.

2, now there is 2 million vacancies, the work shy really have no excuse, take the job or receive no benefits.

3, if some still refuse to work maybe start an exchange program with other countries, for every worker they send we send a work shy chav back.

As said I can see many political pitfalls, but the logic is sound.

angrypirate

Percy1983 wrote: »

Actually I see a 3 pronged strategy working quite well here, I will say I know this can't work as stage one isn't simple but stick with me.

1, with there is 2 million unemployed kick out 2 million immigrants.

2, now there is 2 million vacancies, the work shy really have no excuse, take the job or receive no benefits.

3, if some still refuse to work maybe start an exchange program with other countries, for every worker they send we send a work shy chav back.

As said I can see many political pitfalls, but the logic is sound.

Well, according to Hamish, your point one doesnt work. Kicking out 2 million employed immigrants will see 2 million jobs disappear, if not more. Scottish logic - i call it bonkers

angrypirate

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well quite, there are numerous complex and detailed studies showing that immigrants don't steal jobs form the native born, but I rather suspected a simple example might be more likely to get your attention.

Looks like I was right.:)



Indeed.

And the two will balance out to something similar to the estimate I used.



Not as much as you'd think.

Below average income families also spend a greater percentage of their income in total, often all of it, and almost all with local shops and services.

Whereas someone like me wont spend a lot more than they do on food, haircuts, etc. But will spend a lot more on say, imported luxury goods, purchased online from overseas suppliers.



What increase in spending?

The jobs won't exist for them!



How will the benefits bill reduce?

It'll stay the same at best, or maybe even increase, but now with fewer employed people to pay for it.



Nonsense.

The government will have less money to spend, the deficit will worsen, and infrastructure will deteriorate.

The jobs will exist. They will not disappear. Try coming down to England where we have immigrant and see what the effect of it is? In fact, even better, vote for independence and live your own deluded life in your own deluded country.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

angrypirate wrote: »

The jobs will exist. They will not disappear. .

How will they exist?

Do you really think removing several million people from the UK has no economic impact?

I mean, that's just completely bonkers.

We're only a few percent below GDP peak just now, yet unemployment remains a million more than it was.

The effect of removing 5% of the total population, and closer to 10% of the working age population, along with all their consumer spending would be absolutely catastrophic to the economy and employment levels.

Just economic suicide.