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FTSE Pessimism

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Comments

  • grizzly1911
    grizzly1911 Posts: 9,965 Forumite
    jem16 wrote: »
    An IFA's job is not timing the market. They are there to advise based on the client's current situation and to make recommendations based on that.

    Look what happened when an IFA tried to time the market - or at least suggested that's what he was doing.

    https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4451301

    I appreciate market timing isn't really in anyone's grasp. I also note the guy in the post was already in the market so unless coming out of it was an explicit instruction there was no reason to take him out of it. Looks as though someone dropped the ball big time on that one IFA and OP.

    I was more coming from the position of having a someone roll up fresh, naive and a cheque with six figures on it.
    "If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....

    "big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham
  • grizzly1911
    grizzly1911 Posts: 9,965 Forumite
    jimjames wrote: »
    Yes.

    You are now paying a fee for the advice not a fee from the commission on the sale of an investment. Whether you choose to use or ignore the advice the fee will still be the same.

    So would I expect to pay £3000 for a fact find and an assessment with a recommendation that I may not wish to follow?
    "If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....

    "big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham
  • cleeside
    cleeside Posts: 20 Forumite
    This is the piece I was thinking of extracted from Peter Comley - Monkey with a pin. Chapter 5. (available free on kindle or as amobi download) http://monkeywithapin.com/

    ......You have a system
    where you are perpetually measuring the increasing performance of the UK’s fastest - growing companies only.
    Any company that has below - average performance will soon
    get relegated and stop dragging the index down and will be
    directly replaced by one that is growing.

    The result: an ever - increasing index over a long period of
    time.
    I read Monkey with a Pin a few months back and I thought it was very misleading and poorly researched. The quote above is simply incorrect.

    In relation to the original thread IMHO we will have a small pull back in the stock market shortly (a couple of hundred points or so) and then back towards new highs. I think 2013 will end higher than it is now, although it might be bumpy along the way.
  • jem16
    jem16 Posts: 19,706 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    I was more coming from the position of having a someone roll up fresh, naive and a cheque with six figures on it.

    IFAs don't have a crystal ball, no-one does.

    You read what happened in the other thread. If an IFA had chosen to recommend to you that you wait, what would you be thinking 6 months later?
    So would I expect to pay £3000 for a fact find and an assessment with a recommendation that I may not wish to follow?

    If that was the fee you agreed, then yes.
  • A_Flock_Of_Sheep
    A_Flock_Of_Sheep Posts: 5,332 Forumite
    Tenth Anniversary 1,000 Posts Combo Breaker PPI Party Pooper
    This girl has purchased from Amazon Tim Hales Smarter Investing and the FT Guide to Investing For Income. Found a £10 Amazon Voucher and then remembered another £10 one I had for Christmas :j:j
  • gadgetmind
    gadgetmind Posts: 11,130 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Combo Breaker

    The remaining 10% of companies are
    “dogs” and get relegated and are replaced by new entrants that increase in price over the year. These new companies will cause the FTSE to go up. But, hang on a minute, let’s remember that
    90% of the old index has not moved and the other 10%
    dropped in value (and got relegated) –yet the FTSE has goneup?

    Complete cobblers. As the "dogs" drop in value, they drag the FTSE down. By the time they get into the relegation zone, they are such a minuscule part of the index that their drop has already done the damage and their final passing is inconsequential. Their replacement is then is a similar cap size, so how does this boost the FTSE?

    Worst. Argument. Ever.
    I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.

    Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.
  • Thrugelmir
    Thrugelmir Posts: 89,546 Forumite
    Part of the Furniture 10,000 Posts Name Dropper Photogenic
    So why should there be a crash simply because it is back at original levels. Does this mean that 08/09 is the final ceiling value.

    The index is merely a number based on a basket of shares. Every quarter the constituents change. So means little to serious investors. As the performance of the underlying holdings that counts.
  • grizzly1911
    grizzly1911 Posts: 9,965 Forumite
    edited 21 May 2013 at 9:07PM
    gadgetmind wrote: »
    Complete cobblers. As the "dogs" drop in value, they drag the FTSE down. By the time they get into the relegation zone, they are such a minuscule part of the index that their drop has already done the damage and their final passing is inconsequential. Their replacement is then is a similar cap size, so how does this boost the FTSE?

    Worst. Argument. Ever.

    Fresh legs all the time, not carrying deadwood.

    Have you read the example given based on 10year FTSE experience?

    Appreciate it is taking an extreme viewpoint.

    Book is free - worth a read if only for reflection. The graphic (that I couldn't copy) is interesting.
    "If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....

    "big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham
  • grizzly1911
    grizzly1911 Posts: 9,965 Forumite
    jem16 wrote: »
    IFAs don't have a crystal ball, no-one does.

    You read what happened in the other thread. If an IFA had chosen to recommend to you that you wait, what would you be thinking 6 months later?



    The question is would it even be listed as an option with pluses and minuses to give the punter the choice?

    Would ways to mitigate against a taking on higher risk options be shown if this was the punters assessed risk appetite?
    jem16 wrote: »

    If that was the fee you agreed, then yes.

    In the (real) example I used a fixed fee was quoted to provide the review, fact find, assessment recommendation. Implementation is separate, based on a percentage of value, from which the minimum fixed element would be absorbed if the percentage is sufficient.
    "If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....

    "big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham
  • dryhat
    dryhat Posts: 1,305 Forumite
    Down is the new up........

    Max keiser's take on stock market indicators.

    Superb analysis as usaual.
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