FTSE Pessimism

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

So the FTSE is back at a level it was before the 08/09 crash. On the radio this morning was a pessimistic soul saying a mass crash worse than 2008 2009 is due "very soon".

So why should there be a crash simply because it is back at original levels. Does this mean that 08/09 is the final ceiling value. Seems a bit pointless if predictions are that it won't ever get beyond these levels. The drop or crash prediction was up to 60% too!!!

westy22

You were saying yesterday that you may cash in all your funds & shares and start over - so a 60% drop would suit you well as you would be re-buying at bargain prices :-)

Common sense would indicate that after a prolonged steady rise there will be some sort of correction at some stage - estimates vary between 5% and 60%.

The truth is no-one really knows what will happen tomorrow (or even later today!) - everyone has to use their own judgement. I have recently taken profits to the tune of about 5% of my portfolio so that I have a war chest ready for whatever correction / plunge we get.

The one thing I know for sure is that, when the drop does come, I will be buying like mad!

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

This is my thought I will be buying too. It's annoying because I have never looked into stocks and shares until recently and wish I had back in 09. At least I am informed enough for the forthcoming mass crash.

Incidentally can anyone tell me if you sell funds in an isa on HL does the cash from sales sit there until you are ready to invest again? Or do you lose your isa allowance?

grizzly1911

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

So the FTSE is back at a level it was before the 08/09 crash. On the radio this morning was a pessimistic soul saying a mass crash worse than 2008 2009 is due "very soon".

So why should there be a crash simply because it is back at original levels. Does this mean that 08/09 is the final ceiling value. Seems a bit pointless if predictions are that it won't ever get beyond these levels. The drop or crash prediction was up to 60% too!!!

Arguably the indexes are built on sentiment and trading not based on the underlying value of the constituents.

If buyers start drying up but people need to sell then the price will fall. Supply and demand.

There is no reason the indicies can't hold or continue to climb as weak members are replaced by new blood. That rate of climb may tail off and investors may get spooked and start to sell, again a cause for a fall.

I am not so sure a big fall is due, given economic conditions, QE, interest rates and lowish inflation rates. Even if it fell back 10-15% many punters would still be showing positive returns if they brought 6 -12 months ago.

A GFC or Euro 2,3, 4 is a different thing but the amount of attention they are getting the risks are mitigated to degree. Even Korea has gone quiet for now.

Why so down beat all of a sudden?

westy22

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

Incidentally can anyone tell me if you sell funds in an isa on HL does the cash from sales sit there until you are ready to invest again? Or do you lose your isa allowance?

The cash sits in the cash part of your ISA waiting for you to reinvest unless you specifically tell HL that you want cash paid out to you.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

Thanks I have cashed in my turkey fund and yes it is sitting as cash now I have just seen I thought it would be paid into my bank but I'm glad it sits there. I've have contacted an IFA for advice as I am too experimental and have been lucky so far. Do you know if I can just discuss my situation and goals with them and then act on advice or do you have to engage in a managed service with them? Not sure which is best if the options exist.

grizzly1911

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

Thanks I have cashed in my turkey fund and yes it is sitting as cash now I have just seen I thought it would be paid into my bank but I'm glad it sits there. I've have contacted an IFA for advice as I am too experimental and have been lucky so far. Do you know if I can just discuss my situation and goals with them and then act on advice or do you have to engage in a managed service with them? Not sure which is best if the options exist.

IME they will act on a transactional basis for a one off set of advice. May impact on the amount they charge.

westy22

A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »

I've have contacted an IFA for advice as I am too experimental and have been lucky so far. Do you know if I can just discuss my situation and goals with them and then act on advice or do you have to engage in a managed service with them? Not sure which is best if the options exist.

Any IFA will want paying for his or her time. They will happily listen to your needs and wants for free but they will make sure that you are committed to a fee before they will actually do any work on your behalf or make any recommendations. Budget on about £150 to £200 per hour and expect 2-3 hours for a risk review, due diligence and recommendations.

A_Flock_Of_Sheep

60% is a big and scary drop

talexuser

I too have this years ISA allowance waiting to invest. The problem is if the downturn does not happen before next April - then you may have lost out on another 10% of growth/dividends, which would have further negated losses when the downturn then comes. At the end of the day you can only come out on top with luck... no one can predict the time to jump in and out except those at the top with inside knowledge of when a country/global bank is going to declare broke.

grizzly1911

westy22 wrote: »

Any IFA will want paying for his or her time. They will happily listen to your needs and wants for free but they will make sure that you are committed to a fee before they will actually do any work on your behalf or make any recommendations. Budget on about £150 to £200 per hour and expect 2-3 hours for a risk review, due diligence and recommendations.

£350 fixed fee recently being quoted in the Midlands which would be offset against a percentage charge if they undertook the translations. 4% up to 50k and 3%, on the total, if above that amount.