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FTSE Pessimism
Comments
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I'm not sure an IFA would suggest waiting as that would imply they are able to time the market. How would you feel if the IFA said wait (as many people were saying in Nov 2012) but the market then rises 15%?
I appreciate they can't time the market but that seems a little bit of a cop out when the markets are at, or close to an all time high especially for a large one off investment. That is the reason I suggested there may be different views based on risk profile.
I think I would be more peeved knowing there was a high risk probability of a possible sizeable correction, not to be warned, just to take a potential marginal small uplift in the short term. After all they are taking their advice fee or is the temptation of a bigger fee to much to resist?
In a more benign market it could go either way an I accept your point. The same would go for a monthly contribution investment."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »I appreciate they can't time the market but that seems a little bit of a cop out when the markets are at, or close to an all time high especially for a large one off investment. That is the reason I suggested there may be different views based on risk profile.
It is still impossible to know what will happen. Just because the market is high doesn't mean it will crash tomorrow. How long should an adviser tell someone to wait on the sidelines without investing? The thing is no-one knows. The market may go higher before it drops again, it may drop 200 points, is that enough to then invest?
Trying to time the market doesn't generally work so I still think it isn't what an adviser would do.grizzly1911 wrote: »After all they are taking their advice fee or is the temptation of a bigger fee to much to resist?
I'm not sure what you are suggesting here. If I have £100k to invest then the fee will be the same regardless of the market level.Remember the saying: if it looks too good to be true it almost certainly is.0 -
A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »These gains have been going on since 2009. That's four years. It can't go on like this for ever and a potential 60% hit is very dramatic.
I have not mentioned 60%, but the money printing has to slow and stop at some point and each of us has to decide how to position ourselves accordingly. I personally find the current scenario of asset inflation pretty scary, but lucrative at the same time - all I am saying is that things could get very volatile....
J0 -
grizzly1911 wrote: »Are IFAs recommending hold/wait and see or are they still suggesting investments and taking orders?
If we pitched up tomorrow with our £100k what would they suggest?
Would it depend on the risk appetite? Low risk strategy continue, high risk wait and see?
Two approaches I guess, subject also to all the know your customer stuff.
- Stage the purchases of the risk assets; and/or
- Weight the purchases to less volatile investments.
I'd be disappointed to hear that typical IFA advice didn't consider recent market history.
That's an "I don't know" answer, sorry!"Things are never so bad they can't be made worse" - Humphrey Bogart0 -
I'm not sure what you are suggesting here. If I have £100k to invest then the fee will be the same regardless of the market level.
If based on all information you decide not to invest will the fee be the same?"If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
I've just found deep in a draw an amazon £10 voucher so have got tim bales book for about 12 quid0
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A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »I've just found deep in a draw an amazon £10 voucher so have got tim bales book for about 12 quid
Happy reading:)
Another cheap one, on kindle, that is a succinct, brief, short summary is:- Slow and Steady Steps from Debt to Wealth - JE Hutton."If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
redbuzzard wrote: »Two approaches I guess, subject also to all the know your customer stuff.
- Stage the purchases of the risk assets; and/or
- Weight the purchases to less volatile investments.
I'd be disappointed to hear that typical IFA advice didn't consider recent market history.
!
That is what I would expect:think:"If you act like an illiterate man, your learning will never stop... Being uneducated, you have no fear of the future.".....
"big business is parasitic, like a mosquito, whereas I prefer the lighter touch, like that of a butterfly. "A butterfly can suck honey from the flower without damaging it," "Arunachalam Muruganantham0 -
Reading this thread, you sound like a kindred spirit! I'm always wanting to invest (or even speculate) for gain but am even more terrified of losing substantials amounts of money. That is exactly why I got out of equity investment some time ago and moved all my savings into cash. Because rates are so low, I'm now very tempted to move some back but one of the things I've always read is that people like myself always go in at the wrong time i.e. when the market is high. IMO, the market is VERY high considering the state of the economy so I'm restraining myself and will wait for a considerable drop before I move any money even though it will mean getting precious little from my savings.A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »I've just found deep in a draw an amazon £10 voucher so have got tim bales book for about 12 quid0 -
A_Flock_Of_Sheep wrote: »So why should there be a crash simply because it is back at original levels.
Well, quite, and particularly because the markets are no-where near previous highs in real terms. Inflation at 3% pa means that you need £1.40 to buy a year 2000 pound, so let's see what that tells us.
FTSE at 6700 now = FTSE at 4785 in 2000. Was 4785 a scary number then? If not, why is 6700 scary now?
FTSE at 6950 in Dec 1999 = FTSE at 9450 now. Yes, that would be rather high and nicely puts 6700 ish into context.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0
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