Is the stock market over heating?

lvader

Glen_Clark wrote: »

But the pound will continue to fall faster than shares, so shares that are priced in pounds will rise.

And yet the facts say the pounds is on an up trend against the Euro and USD going back to 2009.

Glen_Clark

lvader wrote: »

And yet the facts say the pounds is on an up trend against the Euro and USD going back to 2009.

I recall getting 1.4 Euros to the pound when the Euro was introduced.
What will it be when Osborne's Sub Prime 2 kicks in :eek:

melbury

redbuzzard wrote: »

Good question. My cousin lives in Berlin, has done for decades. The Germans really do have a European mindset now and to them, Cameron's dismissal of the end-European-wars rationale is idiotic - for them there is a long term purpose to the union that goes beyond national priorities.

Nevertheless, the currency tie to fundamentally uncompetitive eurozone countries is looking like a bottomless pit to Germans. Spain and Italy are the start of it, and Germany must be wondering how it will cope will the necessary levelling when its fundamental economic strength is already set to be undermined by a far worse population/demographic and age-dependency trend than the UK.

I think the shoring up will continue for now, but not forever.

Surely those warehouses full of deutschmarks will come into play fairly soon;)

Tiglath

Spam reported.

cepheus

If anyone isn't convinced the market isn't pumped up, this confirms it

Now you might think the announcement that the US economy grew much slower than was originally thought in the first three months of the year - at a sluggish annual rate of 1.8%, compared with the initial peppy estimate of 2.4% - was bad news. Not however for investors. Share and bond prices in the US and Europe rose sharply.......


The point is that what has happened today confirms that there is a significant speculative element in stock and bond prices, disconnected from economic reality. This will have been noted by central bankers, who will become more anxious about the dangers of keeping the price of financial assets pumped up on cheap-money dope. The point is that the more that the price of these assets is dependent on this dope, the greater the risk of calamitous financial shock as and when the dope is withdrawn.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23072709

Barcap

cepheus wrote: »

If anyone isn't convinced the market isn't pumped up, this confirms it

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23072709

Pumped up? what was the FTSE in 1998, 15 years of no growth. what was the market growth from 1980-1999 (600%).

there will be no big crash now for atleast 20 years, the world cant take it, were still in the **** now, think what would happen if 2008/9 happened again (Europe would be finished.period) the ELITE wont allow it.

Theres a lot of good solid companies trading at single diget p/e paying 5-6%, where else is there to put money into? every other asset is still in a bubble.. housing bonds gold, or put your money in crap 1% savings account being eating up by 5% inflation every year.

Barcap

EU ministers agree on new bank rescue rules, where you the saver has to pay for the bailout, there you have it stockmarkets are more safer then holding cash in a bank lol. (if you got over £100k that is)

Globalisation don't you love it, your kids will be lucky to have low-paid part-time job, open door policy so there are more fish in the pond to catch (at a lower price), only good news for markets.

well atleast we only got 6% unemployment, nevermined the fact that 50% of the country don't work, 9/10 under 25 year olds are at school, nah nothing to do the keeping them off the books.

blinko

copper has also fallen recently !! expect 6000 on the FTSE to be significant support

gadgetmind

Barcap wrote: »

EU ministers agree on new bank rescue rules, where you the saver has to pay for the bailout

Only after ordinary equity has been wiped out, and all subordinated debt, and both T1 and T2 bonds.

The problem to date has been that governments have stepped in with public money while more senior bond holders escaped unscathed.

cepheus

Barcap wrote: »

Pumped up? what was the FTSE in 1998, 15 years of no growth. what was the market growth from 1980-1999 (600%).

there will be no big crash now for atleast 20 years, the world cant take it, were still in the **** now, think what would happen if 2008/9 happened again (Europe would be finished.period) the ELITE wont allow it.

Theres a lot of good solid companies trading at single diget p/e paying 5-6%, where else is there to put money into? every other asset is still in a bubble.. housing bonds gold, or put your money in crap 1% savings account being eating up by 5% inflation every year.

So where did the Japanese put their money after their asset bubble? Seems to me that too much money chasing too little value just leads to volatility where the stock-market fluctuates between extremes.



Second line stocks have done well off course, but Banks, Oil and Pharma which dominated the FTSE100 all have their own problems.