House prices in the real world....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

The latest Acadametrics house price index is out, and shows prices are up £6700 in the last 12 months, on average.

Taking London out of the picture, prices in the rest of the UK are up £1,117 in the last 12 months.

But what does this mean for real world buyers and sellers?

Well, I thought I'd go to the most bearish source of housing market information possible, and find out....:)

We went straight in at full asking price for ours.

Don't like doing that but after months of putting in lower offers and missing out we've had to face facts and realise that it's only the less desirable locations or houses in dilapidated condition that are going for less.

We've followed up all the houses we viewed and didn't buy and every one coming onto Land Registry figures went for either asking price or extremely close to it. In any case they all went for more than we offered.

I wish it were different but it isn't.

If we didn't go full asking on ours then it would have gone within days to another buyer for the same

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=189426&view=findpost&p=909303232

2 Bed Flats in 2006 that were going for £100k your now looking at paying ~£140k or so, big jump

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=48163&view=findpost&p=909296798

In the last 12 months a fair amount of property in the roads surrounding me in central Solihull has been going up for sale.

I laugh at the crazy prices they ask and then go "!!!!!!?" when they sell a few months later at very close to asking.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=186706&view=findpost&p=909234655

Well after 9 happy years we decided to sell our house last year and although we had some viewings during 2012 there were no offers.

Then, the weekend when we had loads of snow in January, we suddenly, out of the blue, had five viewings.

One offer followed, shortly followed by another.

The result of this was that we managed to get our asking price.

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?showtopic=189508&view=findpost&p=909301828

So promising signs of life from the market in a multitude of different localities, although admittedly, it's not yet universally the case in all areas.

One can only suspect though that things will get much, much more lively across the whole UK if the additional £130bn in government backed lending happens next year.

After all, the continued mortgage market dysfunction means that....

There is an army of first time buyers trying to enter the housing market but they are being held back by tough mortgage criteria.

The key to the recovery of the housing market is more mortgages for first time buyers.

http://www.independent.co.uk/property/house-prices-in-england-and-wales-up-6700-in-the-past-year-8569029.html

Interesting times ahead for sure, but it does look like finally, there might be the start of a proper recovery brewing in the next year or so.

the_flying_pig

aye, sod the namby-pamby indices with their stupid statistical whatchamacallits.

stick with a few carefully picked anecdotes. they tell you what's really happening in the real world.

ILW

Does a recovery have to have ever increasing above inflation prices though?
I would have thought activity was best for the economy.

marathonic

ILW wrote: »

Does a recovery have to have ever increasing above inflation prices though?
I would have thought activity was best for the economy.

This would be my preferred outcome. The story in Ireland is ridiculous at the moment.

They have a price register listing sold prices that went live last year (but contains a few years worth of data). They are introducing a property tax for which owners must self-assess the value of their homes. The revenue gave guidance based on the region and house type and advised people to use the price register to get a more accurate valuation.

The problem is, although the price register contains a few years worth of transactions, it's still VERY empty. There are rare completions but, in most areas, it's impossible to find a comparable house sold in recent years.

I've recently purchased in Northern Ireland. Falls here have been similar to the Republic of Ireland - but I imagine Northern Ireland will recover much, much quicker.

For the past year, Northern Ireland has been a drag on the UK index as a whole - just like London has pushed the averages higher. This drag, I imagine, is coming to an end.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

marathonic wrote: »

For the past year, Northern Ireland has been a drag on the UK index as a whole - just like London has pushed the averages higher. This drag, I imagine, is coming to an end.

Certainly looks that way.

Thrugelmir

marathonic wrote: »

I've recently purchased in Northern Ireland. Falls here have been similar to the Republic of Ireland - but I imagine Northern Ireland will recover much, much quicker.

Will require more than imagination to fix the fiscal issues of both the UK and Eire.

marathonic

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Will require more than imagination to fix the fiscal issues of both the UK and Eire.

Thanks for clearing that up.... I'd thought that my imagination, and my imagination alone, was going to resolve everything.. :rotfl:

System

Accepted an offer on our place last week for 5% below asking, from a slightly nutty old Czech lady who also bought 3 other places that day to have as BTLs.

House hunting now, market is tough, not much on and anything decent goes quick. It used to be a real buyers market but I don't think that's the case now.

the_flying_pig

marathonic wrote: »

...For the past year, Northern Ireland has been a drag on the UK index as a whole - just like London has pushed the averages higher....

not really.

NI only has about 1.75m people in it, so, like, 2-3% of the UK.

so [say] a 10% fall in NI would push a UK index down by between 0.2% and 0.3%

the population of London & surrounding areas is nudging up towards 10m.

TruckerT

Thatcherites who still see house-ownership as the be-all and end-all of economic success should take a lesson from the money-lenders - but unfortunately, you are unlikely to receive tax-payer compensation for your losses.

TruckerT

marathonic

the_flying_pig wrote: »

not really.

NI only has about 1.75m people in it, so, like, 2-3% of the UK.

so [say] a 10% fall in NI would push a UK index down by between 0.2% and 0.3%

the population of London & surrounding areas is nudging up towards 10m.

So, if we take these figures (and considering the 13% drop last year in Northern Ireland), probably close to 0.5% downward pressure on the index.

Although insignificant in markets moving by 10%+ in a year, this is significant enough in todays' market - when you consider the Nationwide figures of +0.8% over the year or Halifax's figure of +1.2%.

It wouldn't surprise me if, given the 60% drop since 2007 in real terms, Northern Ireland outperforms the UK market at some point over the next couple of years - so 0.5% downward pressure might turn into 0.1-0.2% upward pressure.