Northern Ireland Residential Property Price Index

marathonic

PropertyPal does list some properties in the Republic of Ireland and further afield. However, approximately 85% of listings are Northern Ireland.

I suspect we'll see a big decrease on properties for sale in Feb 2017 compared to now. As you're probably aware, December and January tends to be a slow month for new listings to replace the properties sold during the final quarter of the year.

tara747

marathonic wrote: »

PropertyPal does list some properties in the Republic of Ireland and further afield. However, approximately 85% of listings are Northern Ireland.

I suspect we'll see a big decrease on properties for sale in Feb 2017 compared to now. As you're probably aware, December and January tends to be a slow month for new listings to replace the properties sold during the final quarter of the year.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

marathonic

tara747 wrote: »

I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Yeah. To be honest, the volumes of properties for sale don't really trouble me. I'm more concerned with the next 2 reports, i.e. those that reflect post-Brexit sales.

Going by the UK mainland predictions, the commentary earlier this year of potential 20% drops in property prices if Brexit went ahead appear to have been replaced with more recent predictions of a mere 1% drop in 2017 followed by a rise of 2% in 2018.

Of course, these predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt.

It's impossible to know what will happen but I don't see prices going back to 2012 levels in Northern Ireland. I think we're at fair value now and any further significant rises could give rise to another bubble. Likewise, any noticeable drop from here could be a good buying opportunity.

marathonic

marathonic wrote: »

Yeah. To be honest, the volumes of properties for sale don't really trouble me. I'm more concerned with the next 2 reports, i.e. those that reflect post-Brexit sales.

Well, we now have the first report for a full quarter of post-brexit sales:

http://www.nisra.gov.uk/housepriceindex/NI_RPPI_Statistical_Report_Q3_2016.pdf

Overall it's a 0.8% rise in prices over the quarter. There was a significant increase in transactions in quarter 3 compared to quarter 2 - albeit, both quarters had lower sales volume than 2015.

Overall, the report is a lot more bullish than I'd expected for the period during which a lot of people would have had the post-brexit jitters.

qwert_yuiop

Let's wait until we're post brexit before assessing life post brexit.

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

Let's wait until we're post brexit before assessing life post brexit.

Whilst it's true that noone really knows what sort of deal Northern Ireland will eventually end up with, it's also true that markets HATE uncertainty. What I'm getting at here is the fact that the liklihood of a drop would have been more likely after the shock result of the vote than it would be when time passes and certainty comes back. That is, of course, unless we get a ridiculously bad deal.

The good thing about Brexit is that it gives the bears another 2 years of excuses to kick the can down the road - those same bears that have been arguing that the rise was a blip on this thread for almost 3 years now (a period during which prices have rose almost 30%).

qwert_yuiop

We're not post brexit. Who knows, we may never be. It's going to be a minimum of two and a half years and could be a lot longer, possibly five or six - "you can check out any time you like, but you can never leave." Not really a reason to delay purchase.

As for prices having risen (aye, risen, please) 30%, do you really believe that?

marathonic

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

As for prices having risen (aye, risen, please) 30%, do you really believe that?

I do indeed. What reason wouldn't I when the cold, hard figures are in the reports for everyone to see.

My own house was purchased for £115,000 and I spend £15,000 on upgrading over the past few years. I would consider selling but there's no way I'd accept an offer anywhere below £175,000.

In other words, both the FACTS in the report and my own anecdotal evidence confirm that prices have increased by approximately 30%.

There's a development nearby where prices for houses of the same style as mine are on the market for £205,000. They have the new-build premium but are in an inferior site.

In addition, I still have the listings from PropertyPal from Q4 2012, which I printed out back when I was on the market for a house-purchase. Reviewing these further backs up the assertion that prices have risen significantly.

marathonic

marathonic wrote: »

I wonder are we going to see the same on the Northern Ireland board as we see from the bears on the main UK board on HPC:

• Nov/Dec 2012: Two consecutive rising months on Halifax survey and the bears say it's a blip in the figures and a dead cat bounce
• Jan 2013: A small drop for the month but the annual rate shows first increase since 2010 and the bears say "I told you so, prices are falling again"
• Feb-Mar 2013: Consecutive monthly rises with continuous arguments from the bears that it's still a dead cat bounce
• Apr 2013: Another monthly rise with arguments from the bears that prices are still falling in real terms with inflation at 2.8% and the annual price rise at 2%
• May 2013: Another monthly rise with annual price rises in excess of inflation. The bears continue to argue about a deteriorating economy and refuse to give in.
• Jun-Jul 2013: Further monthly rises with the annual rate of increase standing at 4.6%. Some bears have now bought and, on revealing this to the forum, are banned. Others complain about government policy and, without that, markets would still be in decline (not realising that government policy is one of the many factors they should consider when deciding whether or not to buy a house). The stubborn bears now turn to an argument that the prices are reported wrong in the Halifax/Nationwide surveys - an argument they would have shot down in a heartbeat if brought up by the bulls in the downmarket

Don't get me wrong, in the UK, the market did reveal a dead cat bounce during 2009. However, the economy, whilst not out of the woods, is in a lot better place today than it was then.



So will it be a case of:

• This is a dead cat bounce, leading to
• Prices are falling in real terms, leading to
• The economy is still bad, leading to
• What are the government doing, leading to
• The reports are wrong

At no point does anyone seem to blame themselves asking themselves why didn't I buy when I could. It's all the governments fault.

qwert_yuiop wrote: »

As for prices having risen (aye, risen, please) 30%, do you really believe that?

It looks like we've reached the final stage of my prediction made three years ago

qwert_yuiop

You're probably right. It's an illiquid asset and dependent on who's available to buy and in the market at the time. I bought the farm (not in the English slang sense) about the same time and I really have no idea of whether I'd get more or less for it if I put it up for sale today. Who wants a medium sized farm in this area? A very limited market - who's got the money to pay for it today even if they'd like it. My experience has always been no one really knows what a property is worth till it's on the market. Then you find out if its value has risen or fallen.