The nightmare scenario.....

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

There are clear disadvantages too - IF millions of Romanian and Bulgarian (presumably low/ zero skilled) citizens are chomping at the bit waiting to travel here just to claim benefits and get a free house then that's not great.

Thing is, theres currently no evidence of this, so it's difficult to quantify. However, Newsnight did do a piece on it and went and interviewed some Romanians.

While not in any way a survey, it did give some context, and plenty of them would be open to moving to the UK, so long as they can make enough money to send back home. They would probably come here for a year or two, with the intention of going back home. When they go back home, it would be normal for another of the family, or a good friend from the village (they seem to be family type communities in villages) to come over and take the previous persons place.

They currently spend a lot of time in Spain. However, the key thing was, not many even knew of the possibilty of coming to the UK. Far from talking or planning about it, most didn't even know it was an option.

The overall concensus was that if the opportunity was there, it would certainly be looked into, before being disregarded.

Mr._Pricklepants

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Translation...

Translation....
Devon and Foxy know damn well pulling out of the EU would have disastrous consequences for our economy.
All they are interested in is picking up a house on the cheap. (half a house in Devon's case) and an economy down the drains would probably deliver that.
What a sad state of affairs when that obsession for cheap housing turns into a wish for your country to suffer economically. Shame on you two. :mad:

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Thing is, theres currently no evidence of this, so it's difficult to quantify. However, Newsnight did do a piece on it and went and interviewed some Romanians.

While not in any way a survey, it did give some context, and plenty of them would be open to moving to the UK, so long as they can make enough money to send back home. They would probably come here for a year or two, with the intention of going back home. When they go back home, it would be normal for another of the family, or a good friend from the village (they seem to be family type communities in villages) to come over and take the previous persons place.

They currently spend a lot of time in Spain. However, the key thing was, not many even knew of the possibilty of coming to the UK. Far from talking or planning about it, most didn't even know it was an option.

The overall concensus was that if the opportunity was there, it would certainly be looked into, before being disregarded.

The point I'm making is more general - there are positives and negatives to EU membership - why can't we have skilled politicians that seek to maximise the positives and minimise the negatives? I'm in a running club - I reckon our committee members could teach them a thing or too.

If there's a realistic chance that we're going to get millions of Romanians wanting benefits and free houses then why don't the government simply extend the 'ban' - what's the big deal? Brussels will get over it.

Any referendum should be about the national interest but, if we let ourselves be manipulated, it will turn into a question about millions of unskilled benefits claimants invading - whether or not that's likely is by the by.

Devon_Sailor

wageslave wrote: »

Why do the people who kick up the most dust at the idea of breaking up the union not blink an eye at the suggestion we leave the eu?

Conservatives answer on a virtual postcard please....

Because the Union has been the most successful and dynamic force socialy, politically and economically probably in modern history. Working together Britain drove the world forward into the truly modern industrial era; we have a shared history and are culturally interwoven extremely closely. Together, we have done great things, and, as an optimist, I would like to think we could do great things in future.

Breaking up the Union would be like cutting your brother out of your life. Getting out of the EU would be like showing an unwelcome, annoying, ungrateful and grasping distant cousin the door after an altogether too prolongued Christmas visit.

History has shown time and again that when it really counts, European countries will either let us down, or try and shaft us.

Regards,

D_S

BobQ

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

That companies will operate in the most efficient way they can is self-evident.

You've yet to come up with a single example of a multinational company that says they'd leave their EU facilities here if we left.

There seems to have been a game of ping pong on this issue.

I cannot see why any firm will make a big issue of its commercial plans on such a topic, hence the lack of evidence. But I cannot see any reason to be confident that in the long term this will not be detrimental to UK if it leaves.

Even if no firm leaves, those that are thinking of establishing a European HQ will not relocate here. Any firm that is here which is faced with major capital investment (say a car plant) will make the decision to move back to the EU.

The way major multinationals manipulate their tax affairs to disadvantage nations based on their local taxes is the only evidence I need to know that the larger employers will want significant extra benefits to maintain more than a domestic sized operation in the UK in the long term.

This is a major decision for the future of this country and I am quite appalled that it seems to be inextricably related the the divisions of the Tory Party

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

There are clear benefits to EU membership - most of us seem to be too young to realise just how easy it is to trade with our EU partners compared to decades past.

That was the case 40 years ago. Now the EU is moving closer to a political union. Not workable for an inner core of 17 to set rules for all 27.

bangersnmash

This is what I posted elsewhere on a thread in DT Discussion Time, the last board on the list, a few weeks ago about this. I’d be interested if any of you have anything to say about it.

England is currently subsidising Scotland to the tune of £20.5 billion a year, a third of its expenditure – or £8.5 billion, a seventh of expenditure, if for some reason Scotland was allocated all of Britain’s North Sea oil and gas revenues :

The UK's Treasury public spending analysis :

Spending 2010/11 £61,625 million
Receipts, no North Sea £41,177 million
Receipts, inc North Sea £53,128 million

Spending on services £ per person per year 2009/10 :
Scotland 9940
England 8531

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datab...a-independence

Without the English money that finances Scotland it would lose a third or a seventh of its budget which would cripple it, so consequently there'd likely be a big exodus of large numbers of rich people, businesses, workers and the young and the country would disintegrate into a third world shadow of itself.

So as Scotland is dependent on English money notions of independence are not possible.

Moby

Devon_Sailor wrote: »

Because the Union has been the most successful and dynamic force socialy, politically and economically probably in modern history. Working together Britain drove the world forward into the truly modern industrial era; we have a shared history and are culturally interwoven extremely closely. Together, we have done great things, and, as an optimist, I would like to think we could do great things in future.

Breaking up the Union would be like cutting your brother out of your life. Getting out of the EU would be like showing an unwelcome, annoying, ungrateful and grasping distant cousin the door after an altogether too prolongued Christmas visit.

History has shown time and again that when it really counts, European countries will either let us down, or try and shaft us.

Regards,

D_S

Brothers indeed! Complete misreading of history of course. Scotland has battled for its independence for centuries...based on alliances with France to achieve it. Wales was subjugated with a series of castles built to quell the local populace and isn't even represented on the union flag!
Tories generally have never had majorities in Wales/Scotland and rule based on policies which favour the South East. The Tories are no longer a national party.....they rule due to their strength in the South. They have no constituency in Wales or Scotland. That is a fact. Only Labour is fighting in Scotland against the nationalists and is actually in power in Wales......
As for 'Europe letting us down'....very myopic little Englander view imo.....we have followed self interested policies towards Europe in exactly the same way as they do to us. We are no better no worse than anyone else.
I don't want to break up the union either but imo simplistic jingoism which is not borne out by the facts on the ground is not the way to go. It is no accident that the calls for Scottish independence have increased since the Tories got into power and the only party capable/in a position to front a unionist campaign in Scotland is Labour. The Tories are nowhere and the Liberals are dead there!

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

That was the case 40 years ago. Now the EU is moving closer to a political union. Not workable for an inner core of 17 to set rules for all 27.

Is a political union in the UK's national interest? I'd suggest it's neither in the interests of the UK OR Europe.

By being a member we have a better chance of influencing the path being taken. Walk away and there will be an acceleration towards political union and a proportional increase in the influence of France and Germany over European affairs.

Being able to say "I told you so" if/ when there's a car crash in Europe is going to be very little consolation.

John_Pierpoint

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And how will that make up for the potentially hundreds of thousands of lost jobs as companies relocate their headquarters and manufacturing plants to within the EU after we leave?

Don't most multinational companies move their offices to Switzerland or Luxembourg and their production to Ireland or Slovakia (if the local economy can support it and the logistics are not too horrendous)..