housepricecrash.co.uk will not let me post

homelessskilledworker

chucknorris wrote: »

This is only my opinion I am not trying to dress it as facts. I don't think we will get a rocketing property market, the best I can see is probably 2-3 times inflation but only after a few years below inflation. So overall going forward from now for the next say 5-6 years not (on average) exceeding inflation. Beyond 5-6 years there may be some larger increases but not many years later they will fall again.

EDIT: How have you not seen any pain with so many businesses going under?

I have seen and heard pain, I suppose my experience goes with the old adage "if you know someone that has lost their job it's a recession, if you lose your job it's a depression", but saying that it just does not seem that bad.

Pre 2007(and I did suspect what happened before it happened), I just worked on a business plan where I could have been down 50% from the glory days of the early 2000's and still been ok ish.
As it goes I have not suffered anything like that, but I am quite lucky that most of the area I cover is Herts and Cambs which is quite affluent, you would hardly notice anything bad was happening with the way people spend around here, and it's probably going to be the same reason why property prices will not fall here as much as other areas also.

chucknorris

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

I have seen and heard pain, I suppose my experience goes with the old adage "if you know someone that has lost their job it's a recession, if you lose your job it's a depression", but saying that it just does not seem that bad.

.

I think that is because this recession seems to be shallower but longer than the previous two, probably due to Gov intervention. But you wouldn't have wanted to watch Bloomberg in 2008 it was quite frightening what was happening with the banking system and the stock market.

marathonic

chucknorris wrote: »

So overall going forward from now for the next say 5-6 years not (on average) exceeding inflation.

But this is the best case scenario is it not? I know that my house is big enough to suit me for life but I'd consider upgrading to a better area. If prices remain flat or decrease by less than the amount I pay off my mortgage annually, any step up on the ladder is going to cost me less.

Rising prices only help those looking to trade down or those with multiple properties.

chucknorris

marathonic wrote: »

Rising prices only help those looking to trade down or those with multiple properties.

We do have multiple properties. Although what I may want to happen personally obviously has no bearing on what will actually happen of course.

noodle_doodle

Tch, let's not go off topic with economic stuff, let's get back to HPC :-)

This backs up my theory that someone in hpc has their hands on an admin password who isn't meant to, I was 'banned' (i.e. made a "new user" which means all posts must be cleared first - and never are) for disagreeing with certain personalities on there. You're never given a warning off the moderator, you're not emailed, you're just quietly gagged. If it was a moderator/admin doing this you'd expect a rude accompanying email at least.

james_toney

noodle_doodle wrote: »

Tch, let's not go off topic with economic stuff, let's get back to HPC :-)

This backs up my theory that someone in hpc has their hands on an admin password who isn't meant to, I was 'banned' (i.e. made a "new user" which means all posts must be cleared first - and never are) for disagreeing with certain personalities on there. You're never given a warning off the moderator, you're not emailed, you're just quietly gagged. If it was a moderator/admin doing this you'd expect a rude accompanying email at least.

exactly.
I got banned for no reason at all, no warning, no email, i have no idea why, I tried to contact the mods but you can't.

After being there since 2005, i started to disagree with the "it a bull trap" again, heard it for 6 years,. and the classic "next year it will happen"

So I stated to say i was not believing in any HPC and was thinking about buying, or maybe buying a BTL (which i did)

I said that i thought house prices would remain flat or with 1-2% falls or rises for the next 10 years. this is why i suspect i got banned, there was no other reason for it.

I think the housing market is still 30% too high, and i would welcome falls even now, but i just think the government will do anything they can to stop it from happening,

So IF the housing market crashes by 30% or even 50% i will buy another BTL, for a lot less than my last. and IF they are both rented out i still make 4 times the amount i would in having savings.

IF the housing market rises i will make money on my investment in a house.

or if the housing market stay like i suspect flat for many years, i will buy another and will in theory get a house bought for me.

I know i will get backlash from people on here about it being morally wrong, (BTL) or what if this happens or that or bad tenant. Well I will cross that bridge when i come to it. but after 14 months of owning my first BTL I still have the same tenant who moved in 4 weeks after buying, and he is still there, has never missed a payment, and has said he would be there for the next 3 years minimum.

so for me it is a win win situation. (so far) but i do not live my life on if's and but's no more.

I am still quite bearish on the housing market, and would never have got into this had it not been for the governement or BOE with their stupidly low interest rates.

marathonic

It's a well known fact that everyone who is bullish is banned so there's no point discussing that aspect further - even long term posters who've been respected on there for years are removed when they take the plunge and buy.

I do like the fact that, now that they're giving up one-by-one, the remaining crowd are spewing the whole argument that:

"This site was set up to make people aware that property will crash significantly. It's served it's purpose so we shouldn't need to bring awareness any more. It is now likely going to be a forum to monitor the depth of the crash over the next few years."

The point brought by their members when I made a bullish comment was:

"What economic factors are going to cause a jump in prices"

My argument, had I not been banned, is that the economic factors that caused the fall are just as likely to improve as they are to get worse and that, in Northern Ireland, I don't think the economy shrank to such an extent in 2012 that a 12% drop in prices were warranted.

homelessskilledworker

james_toney wrote: »

exactly.
I got banned for no reason at all, no warning, no email, i have no idea why, I tried to contact the mods but you can't.

After being there since 2005, i started to disagree with the "it a bull trap" again, heard it for 6 years,. and the classic "next year it will happen"

So I stated to say i was not believing in any HPC and was thinking about buying, or maybe buying a BTL (which i did)

I said that i thought house prices would remain flat or with 1-2% falls or rises for the next 10 years. this is why i suspect i got banned, there was no other reason for it.

I think the housing market is still 30% too high, and i would welcome falls even now, but i just think the government will do anything they can to stop it from happening,

So IF the housing market crashes by 30% or even 50% i will buy another BTL, for a lot less than my last. and IF they are both rented out i still make 4 times the amount i would in having savings.

IF the housing market rises i will make money on my investment in a house.

or if the housing market stay like i suspect flat for many years, i will buy another and will in theory get a house bought for me.

I know i will get backlash from people on here about it being morally wrong, (BTL) or what if this happens or that or bad tenant. Well I will cross that bridge when i come to it. but after 14 months of owning my first BTL I still have the same tenant who moved in 4 weeks after buying, and he is still there, has never missed a payment, and has said he would be there for the next 3 years minimum.

so for me it is a win win situation. (so far) but i do not live my life on if's and but's no more.

I am still quite bearish on the housing market, and would never have got into this had it not been for the governement or BOE with their stupidly low interest rates.

Good luck James

The problem with a site such as HPC is that you can be become totally blinkered, you have too always keep an open mind.

I still think the housing market has a shock coming to it, and like most shocks it will hit us when we are least expecting it and will the become "obvious" to all the "experts" out there.

But for those expecting a huge sharp fall in property prices are seeing that scenario slowly disappearing and a slow long deflating one taking it's place.

What was put into place to prevent the crash in 2008 is still going to bite us in the bum at some point IMO, we basically said to the markets "back off us mate and give us a huge stimulus and we will pay you back when I start getting my big wages again"(GDP).

Anyway, welcome to the MSE, and good luck with your new house, your input will be interesting coming from a man that turned rom the darkside:)

ruggedtoast

Welcome aboard James.

Just not thinking houses are going to fall to 10p a pop is enough to get you banned from the forum hpc.co.uk.

There are two forces of darkness at work over on the forum hpc.co.uk

1) Bruce Banner



This nefarious individual longs for house price crash like a no armed man with an itching scrotum longs for arms. He claims to have half a million in the bank and he will go to any lengths to justify his inexplicable decision to rent while giving his comparably pitiful savings yield to his landlord; a man Bruce Banner claims to run rings around in financial acumen.

Bruce Banner shamelessly and ignobly projects his financial situation onto young and desperate new posters yearning for advice. He confuses them with his arrogance, his innumeracy, and the fact that anyone who tries to point out that he can't add up his own personal situation, yet alone advise on those less fortunate, is immediately deleted.


2) The Masked Tulip



This individual haunts the forum hpc.co.uk rather like the witches in MacBeth. He paints the pages of that forum with long incantations which he hopes will summon unemployment, foreclosure, homelessness and misery on pretty much everyone so that he can get a cheap house.

When challenged, The Masked Tulip will squawk and preen like a startled rooster, before ensuring that his antagonist is promptly banned.

I believe if these individuals were removed it would be just a short walk into Mordor and regime change.

noodle_doodle

Addendum: Having read some postz over there, it looked like the poster just got either a) sick of moderating or b) someone was trying to track them down in ReaLLifE using posts on there (hence the deletion). A post from "the moderators" had an air of "zis poster has gone to relax in the official recuperation center on the black sea. Please airbrush this photo comrade" to it, but others seemed to genuinely indicate the poster had done it by their own hand.