The Polls - Labour Lead At 14 - Is It The Economy?

DecentLivingWage

Generali wrote: »

No they didn't. Where did you get that idea from? You're wrong.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/datablog/2009/nov/25/gdp-uk-1948-growth-economy

Just repeating a lie doesn't make it the truth. I guess there is an addendum to the Big British Book Of Socialist BS, Money Unicorn Edition.

Where did I get it from?

Here actually lol

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/31/william-keegan-ironic-labour-legacy


Heady days eh? Election Day..... when we were all going round knowing the economy was growing and recovering with green shoots thriving - OMG what have we done ,what have we done? Osborne Fail !

grizzly1911

jonewer wrote: »

It is increasing by £200,000,000 a month. Roughly.

Thats £200,000,000 a month less on education, hospitals, transport etc.

Every. Month.

That is very true, but even if they manage to reduce the defecit in the next 5 years, doubtful, they will still be paying roughly the same interest payment on the debt, providing interest remains similar.

That underlying interest payment isn't going to reduce without growth and or a change in direction and focus.

Just what do you think is going to happen by year on year cost downs in the welfare system if nothing is being done to give them a way out? There is already a queue of better qualified workers in front of them, home grown and immigrants.

Thrugelmir

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

Where did I get it from?

Here actually lol

Heady days eh? Election Day..... when we were all going round knowing the economy was growing and recovering with green shoots thriving - OMG what have we done ,what have we done? Osborne Fail !

From the article which is dated 2010.

What an appalling inheritance. How reckless the Brown government was! How could it possibly have saddled the coalition with an economy growing at 3.25% per annum (in real terms, after allowing for inflation)? Just like Labour's friends, the Greeks...

We all now know the true state of the Greek economy. Likewise the UK's.

BertieUK

All these facts and figures will be banded about at the run up to the election by 'Spin Doctors' who only are showing sides of it that they want to show while not shedding light on the rest. A spin doctor uses spin control to emphasize or exaggerate the most positive aspect of something and many times in truth it turns out to be the complete opposite, as we have found in recent years.

So would it not be a better idea if we got rid of these 'spin doctors' who only realy talk fiction, to someone with experience who could talk facts.

Would be interesting as to what you learned posters think.

Wookster

DecentLivingWage wrote: »

Where did I get it from?

Here actually lol

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/oct/31/william-keegan-ironic-labour-legacy


Heady days eh? Election Day..... when we were all going round knowing the economy was growing and recovering with green shoots thriving - OMG what have we done ,what have we done? Osborne Fail !

On an unrelated point, do you think that growth of £1 is worth it if it means increasing the amount you owe by £3? At what point does the law of diminishing returns make it unworthy to pursue growth because the additional debt taken on is too high?

Interestingly the article you are evangelising makes no mention of the vast expansion of debt in the UK from 1995 to 2010. Why do you think this is?

jonewer

grizzly1911 wrote: »

That is very true, but even if they manage to reduce the defecit in the next 5 years, doubtful, they will still be paying roughly the same interest payment on the debt, providing interest remains similar.

Yes, the damage is done. And still more damage continues to be done.

grizzly1911 wrote: »

That underlying interest payment isn't going to reduce without growth and or a change in direction and focus.

The underlying interest payment will change with the yield on UK government debt. We depend on the markets continuing to believe in out ability to repay the £1trillion+ we have borrowed or its lights out.

We can change the rate at which we accumulate the debt. That either means spending less (political suicide), increasing growth (but how?), or an Iceland style approach of debt repudiation and radical restructuring of everything. The latter is the probably the only thing that will work but is as likely as an invisible pink unicorn flying out of my bum singing 'Jerusalem' to the tune of Mahna Mahnam do doo do do do.

grizzly1911 wrote: »

Just what do you think is going to happen by year on year cost downs in the welfare system if nothing is being done to give them a way out? There is already a queue of better qualified workers in front of them, home grown and immigrants.

Sorry, this doesnt make any sense. Could you rephrase?

grizzly1911

jonewer wrote: »

Sorry, this doesnt make any sense. Could you rephrase?

Just what do you think is going to happen by year on year cost downs, in the welfare system if nothing is being done to give them, the recipients, a way out? There is already a queue of better qualified workers in front of them, home grown and immigrants.

Basically what do we do with this reservoir of people that is growing? Should the government be honest with them and just say you have no hope?

grizzly1911

jonewer wrote: »

Yes, the damage is done. And still more damage continues to be done.



The underlying interest payment will change with the yield on UK government debt. We depend on the markets continuing to believe in out ability to repay the £1trillion+ we have borrowed or its lights out.

How will it change, by what sort of magnitude.

We can change the rate at which we accumulate the debt. That either means spending less (political suicide), increasing growth (but how?), or an Iceland style approach of debt repudiation and radical restructuring of everything. The latter is the probably the only thing that will work but is as likely as an invisible pink unicorn flying out of my bum singing 'Jerusalem' to the tune of Mahna Mahnam do doo do do do.

Realistically we are not going to start paying down the debt. Inflation/deflation will help but it will add top the countries falling standards.

How will the interest change, the yields may be able to move a little but it is essentially a fixed cost. Are'nt we on the lowest rates? Providing we play the game and look as though we are holding the line we are just going to stay in the same bad place. The population is growing, local and immigrant and "bad" demand is growing. I appreciate if we look a worsening bet they could spiral.

Something else has got to change for us to move forward.I like you don't know how that will be achieved but being fixated on the debt reduction is only part of the equation.

jonewer

grizzly1911 wrote: »

Basically what do we do with this reservoir of people that is growing? Should the government be honest with them and just say you have no hope?

Well, we could start limiting immigration and offering tax breaks to companies who train local people.

jonewer

grizzly1911 wrote: »

Realistically we are not going to start paying down the debt. Inflation/deflation will help but it will add top the countries falling standards.

How will the interest change, the yields may be able to move a little but it is essentially a fixed cost. Are'nt we on the lowest rates? Providing we play the game and look as though we are holding the line we are just going to stay in the same bad place. The population is growing, local and immigrant and "bad" demand is growing. I appreciate if we look a worsening bet they could spiral.

Something else has got to change for us to move forward.I like you don't know how that will be achieved but being fixated on the debt reduction is only part of the equation.

Bonds reach maturity and need to be rolled over into shiny new debt. This is happening constantly. I grant you that if yields skyrocket tomorrow, its not going to affect the entire amount instantly, but its not just 'new' borrowing thats affected. Its old debt that has reached maturity too.