Halifax August 2012 -0.4% MoM

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

JonnyBravo wrote: »

Absolutely. But I'm not sure anybody really needs it putting in context except those desperate for the opposite to happen?
He's just the flip side of brit and his 40% down by Xmas 2009.
Both a bit.....

Bravo you raving lunatic you.....

When have I ever said house prices will be 40% up by Xmas?

For that matter, when have I ever said house prices will rise strongly in the near future?

I've been pretty consistent in calling it about right in the various prediction threads for the last few years, precisely because my predictions are conservative.

We're years away from the next boom, and the crash is over. Stagnation prevails, and all the zero point whatever annual rises or falls won't change that for some time yet.

But for the record, house prices are currently rising, as per Acadametrics, ONS and Land Registry.;)

Graham_Devon

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

For that matter, when have I ever said house prices will rise strongly in the near future?

While not stating it, you were quite happy and got the usual smilies out for this article, suggesting everyone else was wrong, and prices would rise 27% between 2012-15.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2094515

And here, you suggest it will be 2012 where house prices return to peak (realise you will use an obscure index to prove yourself right here)
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/2178663

Here you suggest HPI will be rising at 7% in 2012...and you suggest this is you being conservative. You even suggested this is "guaranteed".
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=24310433&postcount=12

Here you suggest prices will be rising at 10% in 2012:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=28067751&postcount=48

Here you suggest HPI will be "much higher" in 2012 than in 2010
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=28290435&postcount=3

Here you suggest 2012 will be a "bit boomier":
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=33441969&postcount=9

And I could go on.....and on, as theres just so many results with you saying the same things. "There will be no double dip" "doomsters proven wrong, 2012 the year of the boom, and they still predict a double dip" etc.

I think it's fair to suggest you have certainly suggested prices would be about 10-20% higher now than they were in 2010.

mcc100

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

We're years away from the next boom, and the crash is over.

Is that a fact or just your opinion?

the_flying_pig

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Which long term average?
I thought they were already under the long term trend.

The "long term average" is a post 1980 affordability average calculated by one of the building societies. Thirty two years obviously isn't very long term at all - said "long term" average affordability is vastly poorer now than it would have been calculated using the same method ten years ago.

The "trend" is something else again - basically it's showing you how much HPs have gone up by in recent years, & implying that they'll go up by the same amt in the future. As an analytical feat it's roughly on a par with an 18 year old, 6 foot tall, man noting that he's grown by a foot and a half in the last decade and on the strength of this predicting that he'll be 7'6" by the time he's 28 and nine feet tall at 38. Basically it's worthless !!!!!.

the_flying_pig

mcc100 wrote: »

Is that a fact or just your opinion?

Take a wild guess.

JonnyBravo

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Bravo you raving lunatic you.....

When have I ever said house prices will be 40% up by Xmas?

Blimey, it must have stung. It got you onto this thread despite it's title. You're normally "busy" on days like this.

Oh I grant you, you're more measured than brit in most stuff but you're also the first to ignore stuff/evidence like Graham has posted.
I've not checked his links. It's just how you roll. You talk at length about the stuff you're right on and are never seen again on the stuff you're wrong on.
You see flat lines where other see slight declines and slight increases where others see flatlines.
But hey, that's ok. We know where you stand.

Graham_Devon

JonnyBravo wrote: »

I've not checked his links.

Needless to say I have, and this is probably my favourite out of the few I picked:

Roughly?

2010 3%

2011 5%

2012 7%

And that may be conservative.

**Snip, same waffle about household creation**

HPI is locked in and guaranteed.

A more perfect environment for HPI would be hard to imagine.

I like this not because it's wrong, everyone has been wrong, but mainly for the last line!

I wouldn't have highlighted it at all if he didn't keep insisting he's normally correct and far more correct than anyone else on here.

undetterred

Cmon gray,quit spanking your monkey

DaddyBear

mcc100 wrote: »

Is that a fact or just your opinion?

Hamish's opinion is fact. FACT.

homelessskilledworker

mcc100 wrote: »

Is that a fact or just your opinion?

And what he fails to see as do a lot of other people, is that we have not even had our proper UK recession yet.

We have had our "wrapped in cotton wool recession" where we have probaby thrown close on £1 Trillion pound at the problem to see negative growth at sub zero today, a recession where people think it is tight because they cannot have the second ski holiday in one year, or where they will just have to skip the weekly meat pies after paying £1000 for the football seaso ticket.