House Prices to rise 27% in just 3 years.....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

What do the experts predict?

Understandably, many commentators are reluctant to stick their necks out too far when it comes to forecasting house prices. Nationwide and several other big players have not yet issued their predictions for prices next year. Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's chief economist, doesn't expect a repeat of this decade's 111% growth over the next 10 years. "I don't see prices moving much in either direction," he says.

One of the best-known mortgage market commentators, Ray Boulger of broker firm John Charcol, is predicting house prices will rise 4% next year.

Estate agent Cluttons thinks 2010 prices will rise by up to 2% in a best-case scenario – or fall by up to 5%. "Prices are expected to rise more from 2011, with the three following years seeing prices up by 3-4% per annum."

Savills, the upmarket estate agent, anticipates "a brief period of headline-grabbing price falls – up to -6.6% – around the mid-year point, with modest growth (2.7%) in 2011." In the longer term it forecasts that average UK house prices could rise by 27% over the period 2012 to 2015.

"This would leave the average UK house price [at] just under £200,000, over 7.5% higher than at the peak of the market towards the end of 2007".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2009/nov/21/house-prices-safe-haven-investors

Lots of threads from the doom-mongers lately mentioning the more pessimistic predictions.

Time to point out they are not in any way the consensus opinion, or even the majority opinion.

Other than the usual Capital Economics doom-mongers (who have been spectacularly wrong so far), not many predicting anything but minor falls followed by significant growth soon enough.:beer:

the_ash_and_the_oak

would definitely buy in 2012 and sell in 2015 if that were to be the case imo

abaxas

Great news.

Finally we can have no market, with no-one able to buy or sell.

Graham_Devon

abaxas wrote: »

Great news.

Finally we can have no market, with no-one able to buy or sell.

As Hamish will tell you. 30% of people will be able to buy. And that's all thats needed apparently, the proles can rent off the 30% who can forever exchange with each other at forever higher prices. It's brilliant!

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Graham_Devon wrote: »

As Hamish will tell you. 30% of people will be able to buy. And that's all thats needed apparently, the proles can rent off the 30% who can forever exchange with each other at forever higher prices. It's brilliant!

:T

Almost right Graham, almost right.......

Prices will rise until only 30% of the newly formed additional households can afford to buy, versus around 70% being able to afford something today....... Which is what happens when you only build a third of the housing needed.

That is of course not the same thing as 30% of all people as you claim.

After all, 70% of the population already live in owner occupied, and can therefore afford to continue exchanging houses as they already have the equity.;)

So it's the existing owner occupiers, PLUS the top earning 30% of new households forming.

the_ash_and_the_oak

sounds like a lot of sideways moves in the future - pretty good scenario for people with family homes tho not so good for people with 1bed flats imo

Cannon_Fodder

7.5% higher than peak 5 years from now, and yet houses are supposed to be a sure fire winner for your money...?

What about those who bought in 2007, do they not get to enjoy the "guaranteed HPI" gravy train?

Might there actually be weaknesses in HPI certainty?

That's a shocking admission from the HPI cheerleader.

the_ash_and_the_oak

No i think its 7.5% higher than peak in 2 years from now

Cannon_Fodder

"by 27% over the period 2012 to 2015"

so its 2 years falls/stagnation then 3 years of 27%...topping peak in 2015...

Alledgedly.

the_ash_and_the_oak

Cannon_Fodder wrote: »

"by 27% over the period 2012 to 2015"

so its 2 years falls/stagnation then 3 years of 27%...topping peak in 2015...

Alledgedly.

oops. fair point!

Cannon_Fodder

no prob.

Its Hamish who needs to explain why a 7.5% return after 8 years investment is a such good deal...