Halifax August 2012 -0.4% MoM

JonnyBravo

the_flying_pig wrote: »

this news puts Hamish's recent "house prices are rising" mantra into context.

Absolutely. But I'm not sure anybody really needs it putting in context except those desperate for the opposite to happen?
He's just the flip side of brit and his 40% down by Xmas 2009.
Both a bit.....

homelessskilledworker

the_flying_pig wrote: »

this news puts Hamish's recent "house prices are rising" mantra into context.

Halifax is down MoM, down QoQ, and down YoY.

NW is up MoM, flat QoQ, and down YoY.

to me it's obviously wrong to conclude that prices are going up from this stats - of the five numbers i've quoted, four are down, one up, and one flat. to me they paint a picture of somewhere between small falls & flattish.

interesting to put this in a historical context. NW says that prices are flat 6Yo6Y. Halifax says flat 8Yo8Y. supply and demand, eh.

Ohhhh!

You had better be careful for stating FACTS on this MSE board, the 24/7 bear hating regulars will not like that:). What you have just stated is black and white facts from data available to all. It is what I have been saying(and seeing) for a while now, we have just moved from a flattish market to a questionable downward trend which will then continue what has been a more moderate downward trend over the last five or six years.

What comes now is open to debate(of course not on this board), I am holding out for the market to now go into the £150k's and then maybe in the next 18 months or slightly longer the £140k's, once that happens it's showtime. Of course from this point now if a upward trend started and the £170k mark was hit my prediction will be blown away.

chucknorris

the_flying_pig wrote: »

of the five numbers i've quoted, four are down, one up, and one flat.

You might want to reword that.

DpchMd

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Ohhhh!

You had better be careful for stating FACTS on this MSE board, the 24/7 bear hating regulars will not like that:). What you have just stated is black and white facts from data available to all. It is what I have been saying(and seeing) for a while now, we have just moved from a flattish market to a questionable downward trend which will then continue what has been a more moderate downward trend over the last five or six years.

What comes now is open to debate(of course not on this board), I am holding out for the market to now go into the £150k's and then maybe in the next 18 months or slightly longer the £140k's, once that happens it's showtime. Of course from this point now if a upward trend started and the £170k mark was hit my prediction will be blown away.

Why are you getting so excited? Aren't you sitting on a huge deposit waiting for house prices to fall? How's that working out for you?

I'm glad you've stopped crying though. Jeez that was embarrassing.

ukcarper

the_flying_pig wrote: »

this news puts Hamish's recent "house prices are rising" mantra into context.

Halifax is down MoM, down QoQ, and down YoY.

NW is up MoM, flat QoQ, and down YoY.

to me it's obviously wrong to conclude that prices are going up from this stats - of the [STRIKE]five[/STRIKE] six numbers i've quoted, four are down, one up, and one flat. to me they paint a picture of somewhere between small falls & flattish.

interesting to put this in a historical context. NW says that prices are flat 6Yo6Y. Halifax says flat 8Yo8Y. supply and demand, eh.

Lang Reg up all 3 so that is 4up 4 down and 1 flat logical conclusion stagnating, but whats logic got to do with it.

wotsthat

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

What comes now is open to debate(of course not on this board), I am holding out for the market to now go into the £150k's and then maybe in the next 18 months or slightly longer the £140k's, once that happens it's showtime. Of course from this point now if a upward trend started and the £170k mark was hit my prediction will be blown away.

Is 'showtime' when you buy a house?

Say we get to £145k in two years - that's a £15k drop. What are you going to pay in rent in that time?

You've already said you hate your rented accomodation, you've got a very large deposit and you worry about what to do with it and you clearly want to buy a house. Why not buy one now?

It's not just increasing prices that'll 'blow you away'. What happens if prices stay the same for another two years? Another two years paying your landlord's mortgage and another two years that you could spend overpaying the mortgage by the saving on rent. Don't forget you'll struggle to have a mortgage beyond retirement either so every year that passes is reducing the term available.

Is it worth it?

Graham_Devon

Love it, back to the renting argument straight away!! Prices must have declined on an index.

I like this news. This is good news.

the_flying_pig

ukcarper wrote: »

Lang Reg up all 3 so that is 4up 4 down and 1 flat logical conclusion stagnating, but whats logic got to do with it.

you've made an absolutely fair point, although Haliwide tend to be [modestly] good predictors of where LR will be in a few months' time, so it's a point that needs to be interpreted with caution.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Love it, back to the renting argument straight away!! Prices must have declined on an index.

I like this news. This is good news.

Not really.

The flying pig who sought to add context by pointing out that Haliwide are flat if you take two points 7yoy or so. It's an interesting piece of context - I was worried that HSW's confirmation bias meant that he had overlooked the fact that other context may be considered. If you have a strategy to continue renting (in a house you hate) until prices fall then I don't see the issue in pointing out that rental costs should be considered.

Just trying to help out a fellow board member that's all - what's your problem?

Mr._Pricklepants

ukcarper wrote: »

Lang Reg up all 3.....

ah, maybe that's why the flying pig didn't include that one. The one with actual selling prices.