Italy vs Spain

Generali

chucknorris wrote: »

Yes I like that. You also used one of my fav sayings above, which I often use: Nobody ever went skint taking a profit.

It helps me take my profits when I'm trading on Betfair, not that I've done that for a while now. It can be quite unnerving laying several thousand pounds to lock in a profit of a few hundred!

chewmylegoff

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I'm in Hong Kong so I didnt see the game, but if Italy put two past Germany maybe we arent so bad after all.

the difference really was that ballotelli missed 3 easy chances in the game against england, whereas he hit the target in the game against germany. his second goal against germany was just a replica of the two clean breakaways through the middle against england.

chewmylegoff

Generali wrote: »

The current Italian side don't play catenaccio, it's just a stereotype. You'd never play Pirlo in a catenaccio midfield as he'd never have the space to play.

I hope the Italians win. I think they're playing a great version of the game within the current rules*.


*I also have a small bet on the Italians.

no-one has played catenaccio for years. when was the last time anyone played with a sweeper? mid-90s?

michaels

I have heard people suggest you can make a profit backing all the 1.01 odds at betfair cos after all once the odds have fallen to that level you are 'certain' to make a few pennies...which was pretty much the odds on Nadal at the start of the match. Another example of failed 'black swan' thinking?

chucknorris wrote: »

You mean just like Nadal did (not) on Thursday? That's why sport is so entertaining, it is not a movie where the baddies usually lose in the end.

kabayiri

I'm looking on decent odds on Italy winning courtesy of a Mario Ballotelli hat trick, followed by Super Mario being sent off in the 19th minute for shoving some home made fireworks down the ref's undercrackers and lighting them.

Of course, even the above won't be the worst bet made this month. The worst is clearly the following :

On the radio Ladbrokes mentioned that some guy had put several hundred pounds on Nadal to win his last tennis match at odds of 1:200. It must have seemed such an easy way of making a mere few quid! Losing hundreds was not part of the plan.

chucknorris

michaels wrote: »

I have heard people suggest you can make a profit backing all the 1.01 odds at betfair cos after all once the odds have fallen to that level you are 'certain' to make a few pennies...which was pretty much the odds on Nadal at the start of the match. Another example of failed 'black swan' thinking?

Most if not all the odds on betfair usually represent the true price, so I don't think that you can apply such rules, I've seen a few 1.01 turned oved over. If you go onto the betfair forum they usually start a thread for most 1.01 events that lose. I'm not saying that you can't win betting 1.01 but I am saying that you certainly have to be selective.

kabayiri

Such contrasting expectations in the final.

Ballotelli is hoping for the golden boot

whereas

Torres is hoping for a slightly muddy boot (or 2)

SteveV2

chucknorris wrote: »

You mean just like Nadal did (not) on Thursday? That's why sport is so entertaining, it is not a movie where the baddies usually lose in the end.

I can think of four reasons why they did

chucknorris

SteveV2 wrote: »

I can think of four reasons why they did

Was I supposed to have not noticed that your response was posted after the result? Even the winning lottery numbers are obvious afterwards.

I would have been more impressed if you had said that you had opposed Nadal.

Generali

michaels wrote: »

I have heard people suggest you can make a profit backing all the 1.01 odds at betfair cos after all once the odds have fallen to that level you are 'certain' to make a few pennies...which was pretty much the odds on Nadal at the start of the match. Another example of failed 'black swan' thinking?

Maybe. 1.01 bets don't always come in.

My mate makes money at work writing the 'first scorer' book on the footie. He reckons he makes a few grand a year from it. It's not a massively liquid market so unfortunately he can't ramp up the spend to make more.

I've made a fair bit trading on Test Match cricket. As the match inevitably ebbs and flows there's normally money to be made there as long as you don't mind taking a small profit rather than letting a big position ride. The best money to be made is in the 4th innings as people underestimate how hard it is to chase even a modest total on the 5th day. Even 200 is tough to make.