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The Stock Market Takes Another Dive - Steer Clear ?
Comments
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gadget are you hoping that the far right in France re-elect Sarkozy or do you think a Hollande win will not upset the markets too much?
As seems to be usual nowadays, I think the markets already have the worst case scenario priced in.Must admit with the pound at 1.22 there could be good reason to get some Euros but Europe is all too scary for me at the moment
You and many others, hence the good valuations on lots of top-notch companies.I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
gadgetmind wrote: »As seems to be usual nowadays, I think the markets already have the worst case scenario priced in.
You and many others, hence the good valuations on lots of top-notch companies.
You jest surely!0 -
You jest surely!
No, and I'm prepared to put my money where my mouth is.
Are you shorting Europe?I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
Worst case scenario is currency or bank and government bond default.
Since large parts of currency worth are kept up by the amount of debt held in those countries at high price.
A rapid fall in price would threaten the worth of currency, share prices should not fall as fast especially if they have foreign income
Worst case would damage Nikkei or Dollar companies if they needed to borrow at 1%. That could mean they cease trading. Also a company with large cash reserves like Apple would be worth less and fall faster then most companies with a lower percentage of cash
20% down is easily possible I think. The policy of the FED or BOJ is to only gradually inflate all prices, too fast would be unstable.
They are bound to lose control at some point0 -
gadgetmind wrote: »No, and I'm prepared to put my money where my mouth is.
Are you shorting Europe?
No I'm not shorting Europe0 -
If you short stocks you are long currency, completely wrong in general0
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What companies you buying in Europe Gadge?
The only ones that take my fancy are the big ones like LVMH, but they're still priced too high for me to buy them. I've got enough exposure to Europe in my current portfolio I think even without having any direct holdings there
I think if the Euro eventually does collapse it will present much better buying opportunities than we've got at the moment, if it doesn't then I can only see slow, if any, economic growth in medium term for a lot of Europe. The big defensives dont seem to be undervalued which is what I'd be interested in.Faith, hope, charity, these three; but the greatest of these is charity.0 -
What companies you buying in Europe Gadge?
Ah, this is the embarrassing bit for a "born again" passive investor. This is an old HL ISA, which I'm still using as they are proven to be slick with SAYE transfers and limit orders. As a result, this portfolio is 95% OEICs/UTs and I have added a European OEIC with exposure to the territories and sectors where the smell of fear is the strongest.
Agreed, so I've gone for a fund that's currently selling down defensives in favour of better value.The big defensives dont seem to be undervalued which is what I'd be interested in.
http://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discounts,-prices--and--factsheets/search-results/c/cazenove-european-class-b-accumulation
Unlike most of my direct equity purchases, this one isn't a keeper and I'd expect to be reducing again in a few years time, even earlier if I dump this whole ISA and merge it with my passive one.
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I ought to make it clear that this is a slight tilt to my global holdings and not a farm bet!I am not a financial adviser and neither do I play one on television. I might occasionally give bad advice but at least it's free.
Like all religions, the Faith of the Invisible Pink Unicorns is based upon both logic and faith. We have faith that they are pink; we logically know that they are invisible because we can't see them.0 -
Surely now is a good is a good time to buy into the stock market while its down?Hi, we’ve had to remove your signature. If you’re not sure why please read the forum rules or email the forum team if you’re still unsure - MSE ForumTeam0
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DannyRadclif wrote: »Surely now is a good is a good time to buy into the stock market while its down?
I have some investments, mainly US/UK which I intend to hang onto. No thoughts of investing more anywhere for the moment, probably review in six months.0
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