Take cover! The housing market is heading for a bloody and protracted crash!

ukcarper

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Will all depend on graphical locations.

Obviously some areas won't be "vastly overpriced", which is of course a measure by my own measuring stick.

When a couple, both working full time cannot afford a property without taking on 100%+ mortgages, I believe they are vastly overpriced.

I'm not sure what a 100% mortgage has got to do with it after all that 100% mortgage might only be twice their wages.

I know things are bad where you are but even where I am in the south east a couple with a joint income of £50k could buy a house with a 10% deposit and a 3.5x joint mortgage.

ukcarper

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Everybody's inflation rate is different. Saving for something is a mindset. Those that make sacrifices will achieve their goal.

True but if the falls a only real the size of deposit remains the same.

I agree that with the right mindset it should be possible to save I managed to save a 10% deposit when I bought but I also realise things have changed since I bought and people's lifestyle now make it more difficult to save.

Thrugelmir

ukcarper wrote: »

and people's lifestyle now make it more difficult to save.

Lifestyle is a choice. Hence why I said sacrifice. Its possible to get by on relatively little.

Bigdeflationfirst

I have always said 50% down from top to bottom in real terms. No matter what the property bulls try and say to change track, its looking a lot more like I will be right.

JonnyBravo

Bigdeflationfirst wrote: »

I have always said 50% down from top to bottom in real terms. No matter what the property bulls try and say to change track, its looking a lot more like I will be right.

You've always said that since December?
Or longer.
Can we have the list of your other names so we can check please.
Muppet.

Jimmy_31

ess0two wrote: »

Why will they be kicked out?

Copied from the site everybody seems to have a problem with.

I dont know how to post a link because i work in IT

The radical proposal is being worked on by Downing Street and the Department for Work and Pensions as part of a drive to make sure people are better off working than on benefits. At the moment, people under the age of 25 can get housing benefit to help pay the rent for bed-sits or rooms in shared accommodation if their wages and savings are below a certain level.

However, they could be forced to live with parents or other relatives, like many other young people in their first jobs. It comes ahead of a key speech by David Cameron defending his efforts to “get a grip” on Britain’s welfare bill. The Prime Minister is expected to say he is prepared to “rub people up the wrong way” over his determination to push through radical reforms

Launching his party’s Welsh local election campaign, the Prime Minister will claim that he is ready for a “flat-out, full-throttle fight” to convince people Conservative values of responsibility and hard graft. Mr Cameron has endured a week of tough criticism over the Conservative party’s “cash-for-access” scandal and accusations that his ministers sparked a fuel-buying panic.

In a fight-back against his critics, the Prime Minister will say he prepared to “take hits” and look at the “horizon, not at the headlines”.

He will say he is ready ignore the “whispering voices” telling him to “play it safe” if he wants to win a majority.

“For years people said “you can’t reform and cut welfare – the bills are bound to get higher, this is a fact of British life and there’s nothing you can do about it,” he said.

“We said – hang on – it can’t be right that we pay people more to stay at home than go out to work. We’ve been the first government to come in and properly get a grip on this.”

He will tell local party members in Wales that he is ready to “seize the chance” to make fundamental reforms on welfare, pensions and reducing the deficit.

“You can tinker around a bit and put a lick of paint on the old problems,” he will say.

“You can commission reports and reviews to shove problems further down the line.

You can blame inaction on the bad times you’re in – or in the good times, say you don’t need to bother. Or you can take a different path. You can close that Number 10 door behind you and say: this is our chance. Our precious chance to change our country and we’re going to seize it.”

Graham_Devon

ukcarper wrote: »

I know things are bad where you are but even where I am in the south east a couple with a joint income of £50k could buy a house with a 10% deposit and a 3.5x joint mortgage.

But there is still a problem. Can talk about this all you like, but it's not realistic. It's all "on paper" again. There are still massive problems.

Emy1501

ukcarper wrote: »

I understand that but I don’t see how a fall of 10% in nominal terms will make any real difference.

Someone will have a much better chance of selling their property if they lose their job and more incentive to do it if they have equity in the property and find themselves in a position of struggling to pay the mortgage. In the current market 95-100% mortgages are not a reality in the mainstream. As I say people attitudes to saving for a deposit have to change. I see many young people where I am living with their parents and thinking nothing of spending £100-£200 every weekend on going out and owning a flash car. These people will have to consider putting away a few hundred quid a month from when they start working to save for deposit.

Also a 10% fall in nominal terms can be the difference in getting a mortgage and not. I know someone recently who bought a house recently after the previous sale fell through as the buyer was 5% short on the maximum mortgage they could get.

The days where people could just make up wages to fit the selling prices are no longer there now.

ukcarper

Graham_Devon wrote: »

But there is still a problem. Can talk about this all you like, but it's not realistic. It's all "on paper" again. There are still massive problems.

Of coarse there are problems but the main problem is lack of mortgage funds. A fall in prices would help some people but it could easily hinder others and personally I can’t see any thing changing in the near future. But I do think is it a shame that people who could afford to pay a mortgage and would like to buy are forced to rent.

ukcarper

Emy1501 wrote: »

Someone will have a much better chance of selling their property if they lose their job and more incentive to do it if they have equity in the property and find themselves in a position of struggling to pay the mortgage. In the current market 95-100% mortgages are not a reality in the mainstream. As I say people attitudes to saving for a deposit have to change. I see many young people where I am living with their parents and thinking nothing of spending £100-£200 every weekend on going out and owning a flash car. These people will have to consider putting away a few hundred quid a month from when they start working to save for deposit.

Also a 10% fall in nominal terms can be the difference in getting a mortgage and not. I know someone recently who bought a house recently after the previous sale fell through as the buyer was 5% short on the maximum mortgage they could get.

The days where people could just make up wages to fit the selling prices are no longer there now.

But surely a fall in prices would mean they had less equity.

A 10% fall would allow some people who can’t get a big enough mortgage now to buy, but the main barrier to most people is the deposit and as that is unlikely to change all people can do is save.

As for your last point i think that is a good thing.