Property Transactions UP in January 2012

DpchMd

AndyGuil wrote: »

http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=20069885

There we go. Earlier this year was a blip caused by the stamp duty holiday ending. As expected the downwards movement has resumed and it is now setting new lows.

Hi Andy, it looks like mortgage approvals went up again last month.

https://mninews.deutsche-boerse.com/index.php/update-2-boe-data-mortgage-approvals-rise-april?q=content/update-2-boe-data-mortgage-approvals-rise-april

How is your downwards movement looking?

AndyGuil

It is still moving down. The trend rather than the month-to-month volatility.

Unless the economy recovers it isn't going to be good for a while and its volume is already puny and volatile.

DpchMd

AndyGuil wrote: »

It is still moving down. The trend rather than the month-to-month volatility.

Unless the economy recovers it isn't going to be good for a while and its volume is already puny and volatile.

Yes, the trend is still "moving down" despite consecutive increases. I could accept stagnating, but "moving down" makes you lose all credit.

DpchMd

AndyGuil wrote: »

The tax exemption ended on 24th March so March data includes those that rushed in at the end. It is also only a touch above the Feb data which is a lot down from the Jan data where most rushed in. No exemption in April, pretty obvious which way it is going.

Jan 58k
Feb 49k
Mar 49.8k
Stamp duty holiday end - 24th March.

How did that work out for ya?

AndyGuil

The trend is more than a few consecutive months. The previous months heavily influence by policy change (although volume is still very low). Now that is out of the equation look for an uninfluenced trend which so far is 1 month, i.e. not a trend. Looking further back from this shows the trend is poor. The volume is small and volatile and the market is in a poor state. External influences on the market still persist and have not relieved, if anything they have started to get worse.

AndyGuil

DpchMd wrote: »

How did that work out for ya?

Lol 756 increase. Hardly any volume. Let the months roll and see the trend. It is still trending down.

DpchMd

AndyGuil wrote: »

Lol 756 increase. Hardly any volume. Let the months roll and see the trend. It is still trending down. Still near its 3 year low.

It would be easier if you just said "looks like I was wrong this time".

AndyGuil

DpchMd wrote: »

It would be easier if you just said "looks like I was wrong this time".

I do admit it is surprising to see it up, albeit a tiny amount. It is certainly not a trend no where near confidence inspiring. The volume is still very poor and the volatility is still high which leaves the coming months to exposed to the prevailing trend which is driven by the market conditions. Hardly anywhere near the 120k that was driving the market before.

DpchMd

AndyGuil wrote: »

I do admit it is surprising to see it up, albeit a tiny amount. It is certainly not a trend no where near confidence inspiring. The volume is still very poor and the volatility is still high which leaves the coming months to exposed to the prevailing trend which is driven by the market conditions.

So you were wrong? See if you can say it.

chucky

AndyGuil wrote: »

The volume is still very poor.

Quite... Nearly 52,000 mortgage approvals in one month is very poor.

You have to despair with some people sometimes.