Property Transactions UP in January 2012

Generali

DpchMd wrote: »

Thanks. Completely contradicts AndyGuil's opinion again. You could argue that approvals have been rising since 2009 or stagnating since 2010.

Nothing to suggest that "the market has resumed its fall".

IMHO a fair description would be that transactions fell off a cliff in 2007-8 (down about 75% at the trough) and then bounced up to about 50% of the former peak over the course of 2009 around where it has been flat-lining ever since.

AndyGuil

DpchMd wrote: »

Thanks. Completely contradicts AndyGuil's opinion again. You could argue that approvals have been rising since 2009 or stagnating since 2010.

Nothing to suggest that "the market has resumed its fall".

Fortunately it is not my opinion. The figures demonstrated in those links show that the market has continued a downward fall setting an 8 month low.

Another link. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gnuFvh40b4AIc4Uv7pTV43l8ISbw?docId=N0048191335959566801A

Generali

AndyGuil wrote: »

Fortunately it is not my opinion. The figures demonstrated in those links show that the market has continued a downward fall setting an 8 month low.

Another link. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gnuFvh40b4AIc4Uv7pTV43l8ISbw?docId=N0048191335959566801A

If you check the Bloomberg 5 year chart you will see 2 things IMO:

1. You are right
2. This is a very noisy number and the declines are within the range that the measure has been bouncing around in

I have no idea why this should be such a volatile measure BTW. Anyone got any thoughts?

AndyGuil

The market conditions have not improved and it is a nervous market. The constraint in the market has restricted demand and normal market function. The unfortunate result is a fall in volumes and prices (with volatility). The market is weak and unless conditions improve then it won't get better. There is a lot of weight pressing on the market and it can break in a shocking way (the market is nervous). The eurzone issue is a massive threat, the UK AAA rating can change overnight and hurt rates, and there is continued risk from cost increases. Anyone familiar with the stock market (or even just the concept of supply and demand) would see the volatility and note that this is not a healthy market.

DpchMd

AndyGuil wrote: »

Fortunately it is not my opinion. The figures demonstrated in those links show that the market has continued a downward fall setting an 8 month low.

Another link. http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gnuFvh40b4AIc4Uv7pTV43l8ISbw?docId=N0048191335959566801A

Mortgage approvals rose last month.

AndyGuil

DpchMd wrote: »

Mortgage approvals rose last month.

Not even a couple of % and well within its volatility. They are heavily down from January and April will be more interesting as the stamp duty holiday ended in March so the last of rushers will have gone through then.

DpchMd

AndyGuil wrote: »

Not even a couple of % and well within its volatility. They are heavily down from January and April will be more interesting as the stamp duty holiday ended in March so the last of rushers will have gone through then.

"Approvals for home loans in Britain rose unexpectedly in March, suggesting the housing market continued to recover despite the end of a tax exemption for first-time buyers, Bank of England data showed on Wednesday. "

AndyGuil

DpchMd wrote: »

"Approvals for home loans in Britain rose unexpectedly in March, suggesting the housing market continued to recover despite the end of a tax exemption for first-time buyers, Bank of England data showed on Wednesday. "

The tax exemption ended on 24th March so March data includes those that rushed in at the end. It is also only a touch above the Feb data which is a lot down from the Jan data where most rushed in. No exemption in April, pretty obvious which way it is going.

Jan 58k
Feb 49k
Mar 49.8k
Stamp duty holiday end - 24th March.

DpchMd

AndyGuil wrote: »

The tax exemption ended on 24th March so March data includes those that rushed in at the end. It is also only a touch above the Feb data which is a lot down from the Jan data where most rushed in. No exemption in April, pretty obvious which way it is going.

Jan 58k
Feb 49k
Mar 49.8k
Stamp duty holiday end - 24th March.

"Approvals for home loans in Britain rose unexpectedly in March, suggesting the housing market continued to recover despite the end of a tax exemption for first-time buyers, Bank of England data showed on Wednesday. "

AndyGuil

DpchMd wrote: »

"Approvals for home loans in Britain rose unexpectedly in March, suggesting the housing market continued to recover despite the end of a tax exemption for first-time buyers, Bank of England data showed on Wednesday. "

Please look up the end date. 24th March. The March data is still influenced by the stamp duty holiday. Most rushed in January, there were still opportunities through to the end of March. April does not have such luxury for buyers.