So... how much for a 2-year-old Geely in 2014?

jase1

Am I the only one who is looking forward to the Chinese invasion, which seems to be finally starting in earnest this year?

I think back to the mid-1980s when the mechanically already perfectly acceptable Hyundais started to come on the scene... depreciation was vicious, and folk just couldn't get rid of the cars at a few years old.

Then it happened again in the mid-late 1990s with Daewoo, not helped by the bankruptcy... three year old cars, again perfectly decent mechanically, were being sold for £700 at one point. When I see some of them still going now, ten years later, I regret not getting one at the time!

So... will we see the same thing again?

Geely are bringing in a four-star NCAP rated, Skoda Octavia-sized car for under £10k, with a five-year warranty. I can see no particular reason why these will be anything other than reliable-enough, reasonable quality transport -- perfect for a second car.

Come 2014, when said car, still with equivalent warranty to a brand-new Ford Focus, and hardly any miles on the clock as it'll inevitably have been bought by an OAP, is only fetching £2000 on ebay, will anyone else be seriously looking into buying one?

I think I'll be test-driving one later this year out of pure curiosity...

mikey72

They own Volvo, they're partners with the London Taxi Company (MBH) and produce everything sold worldwide (apart from the british made ones sold in the UK) in China.

They should be a good car.

Lum

It will certainly be interesting. Looking at previous patterns the early ones that come in will likely get a bad reputation that may or may not be deserved, but they'll probably do quite well.

When Japanese cars first came over they got a bad reputation for being rustbuckets, likely due to the fact that Japan doesn't salt it's roads. They got the sales up due to (allegedly) heavy government subsidies.

When the Korean cars first came over they got a bad reputation for reliability, and they dealt with this by offering huge warranties so that the reliability didn't matter so much.

The Chinese cars will likely get a bad reputation for safety, as we've all seen the youtube videos of the earlier models. Whether this reputation is deserved or undeserved we will see (It's quite possible that it was engineered purely to pass a specific set of tests, it's also quite possible that the car is just fine). How they deal with it, we will also see.

Interesting times.

Hintza

One of the problems with early Japanese and the Korean cars was the styling, they just seemed to look so awful style wise a couple of years after purchase. Guess they were runnig with esigns that were already dated when they arrived in Europe.

d-seven

jase1 wrote: »

Am I the only one who is looking forward to the Chinese invasion, which seems to be finally starting in earnest this year?

I think back to the mid-1980s when the mechanically already perfectly acceptable Hyundais started to come on the scene... depreciation was vicious, and folk just couldn't get rid of the cars at a few years old.

Then it happened again in the mid-late 1990s with Daewoo, not helped by the bankruptcy... three year old cars, again perfectly decent mechanically, were being sold for £700 at one point. When I see some of them still going now, ten years later, I regret not getting one at the time!

So... will we see the same thing again?

Geely are bringing in a four-star NCAP rated, Skoda Octavia-sized car for under £10k, with a five-year warranty. I can see no particular reason why these will be anything other than reliable-enough, reasonable quality transport -- perfect for a second car.

Come 2014, when said car, still with equivalent warranty to a brand-new Ford Focus, and hardly any miles on the clock as it'll inevitably have been bought by an OAP, is only fetching £2000 on ebay, will anyone else be seriously looking into buying one?

I think I'll be test-driving one later this year out of pure curiosity...

That will probably be a good time to buy one as they will have been on the road a year or so and that will give you time to see if there are any issues with them.
They featured the Chinese cars on Top Gear last week and they seem to be pastiches (read rip offs!) of current cars from various makers.
They already have Great Wall cars in Australia, and I think there are dealers over here. Time will tell I guess.
Kia and Hyundai have made some good cars at great prices, with 7 and 5 year warrenties, so we shouldn't under estimate the cheaper brands.

mikey72

Lum wrote: »

The Chinese cars will likely get a bad reputation for safety, as we've all seen the youtube videos of the earlier models. Whether this reputation is deserved or undeserved we will see (It's quite possible that it was engineered purely to pass a specific set of tests, it's also quite possible that the car is just fine). How they deal with it, we will also see.

Interesting times.

Taken care of.
http://www.euroncap.com/results/geely_emgrand/ec7/2011/462.aspx

As good, or even better than a lot of cars on the road already.

d-seven wrote: »

That will probably be a good time to buy one as they will have been on the road a year or so and that will give you time to see if there are any issues with them.
They featured the Chinese cars on Top Gear last week and they seem to be pastiches (read rip offs!) of current cars from various makers.
They already have Great Wall cars in Australia, and I think there are dealers over here. Time will tell I guess.
Kia and Hyundai have made some good cars at great prices, with 7 and 5 year warrenties, so we shouldn't under estimate the cheaper brands.

The are said to be using the MBH partnership, and have plans to have a good dealer network first half of this year.

pitkin2020

At the very least it will shake up the current car market. Look how many have now followed hyundai with a 5 year warranty etc. It could also have a negative impact though if they become too successful. You also have to consider as chinas economy is growing at a staggering rate the cheap cars coming in won't be cheap for ever.

The like of hyundai have certainly stepped up their game in the last few years, whilst their first cars to market were ok reliability wise, they were nothing special though, poorly built and usually low spec'd. Parts used to pretty expensive too. Hyundai have come a long way with new designs etc and have stepped away from just copying everyone else and have forged a path for themselves which has done them the world of good.

The chinese cars coming through will be ok but i'm not keen on seeing a carbon copy of a decent mark, a bit like the X5 that appeared on top gear last week. We all know the chinese copy everything and anything but they usually aren't as reliable or as good as the original. I think they would get a much better reception if they come to the market with something new rather than a re-hashed copy.

mikey72

Most cars are copies now, or at least joint ventures, or started on the same design software, and the same opinion polls, so the old days of unique designs are long gone.

The Japanese and South Koreans have moved a lot of manufacture to Thailand, and Vietnam, over the last several years so I can see china build quality being easily as good. In fact they're starting to outsource there as well now.

You could find in a few years Toyotas and Geeleys being built on the same line!

gardner1

d-seven wrote: »

That will probably be a good time to buy one as they will have been on the road a year or so and that will give you time to see if there are any issues with them.
They featured the Chinese cars on Top Gear last week and they seem to be pastiches (read rip offs!) of current cars from various makers.
They already have Great Wall cars in Australia, and I think there are dealers over here. Time will tell I guess.
Kia and Hyundai have made some good cars at great prices, with 7 and 5 year warrenties, so we shouldn't under estimate the cheaper brands.

Just watched that top gear episode:rotfl:

Lum

mikey72 wrote: »

Taken care of.
http://www.euroncap.com/results/geely_emgrand/ec7/2011/462.aspx

As good, or even better than a lot of cars on the road already.

I'm not convinced on that. The overall score is reasonable, but you know I kind of like having working feet*. 4 stars is a good score for a small hatchback or a supermini, but the Emgrand is classed as a "Large Family Car"

I'll stick to the 5 year old design that is my current large family car I think.

http://www.euroncap.com/tests/ford_mondeo_2007/299.aspx

Or maybe an 8 year old design for a small family car

http://www.euroncap.com/tests/ford_focus_2004/204.aspx

Oh look, you need to go back 4 years and to the "supermini" class to get down to 4 stars

http://www.euroncap.com/tests/ford_ka_2008/341.aspx

And still you'd walk away from a frontal impact in that one.

No comments about tearing metal in the passenger compartment for any of these cars either.

Admittedly the Emgrand is safer than driving around in a 13 year old Ford Escort so if you have an old car and are looking at replacement, it might be worth considering, but you could probably get a much safer 5 year old Mondeo for less money.

In two years time, if they depreciate as much as Jase says they will, things will be different in that you'll be able to get a 4-star car for not much money at all, and I'm sure in 5-10 years time Geely will have gotten it sorted.

Currently though, the test results you have linked actually support my suspicion, engineered to get a particular score in a particular test.


* "There was considerable deformation in driver's footwell area, with tearing of the metal in places. The car was penalised for this collapse, resulting in the protection of the driver's feet and ankles being rated as poor."

mikey72

Lum wrote: »

I'm not convinced on that. The overall score is reasonable, but you know I kind of like having working feet*. 4 stars is a good score for a small hatchback or a supermini, but the Emgrand is classed as a "Large Family Car"

I'll stick to the 5 year old design that is my current large family car I think.

http://www.euroncap.com/tests/ford_mondeo_2007/299.aspx

Or maybe an 8 year old design for a small family car

http://www.euroncap.com/tests/ford_focus_2004/204.aspx

Oh look, you need to go back 4 years and to the "supermini" class to get down to 4 stars

http://www.euroncap.com/tests/ford_ka_2008/341.aspx

And still you'd walk away from a frontal impact in that one.

No comments about tearing metal in the passenger compartment for any of these cars either.

Admittedly the Emgrand is safer than driving around in a 13 year old Ford Escort so if you have an old car and are looking at replacement, it might be worth considering, but you could probably get a much safer 5 year old Mondeo for less money.

In two years time, if they depreciate as much as Jase says they will, things will be different in that you'll be able to get a 4-star car for not much money at all, and I'm sure in 5-10 years time Geely will have gotten it sorted.

Currently though, the test results you have linked actually support my suspicion, engineered to get a particular score in a particular test.


* "There was considerable deformation in driver's footwell area, with tearing of the metal in places. The car was penalised for this collapse, resulting in the protection of the driver's feet and ankles being rated as poor."

If every car you own rates 5 stars, fair enough.
If that's what you buy them on.
If you're happy to drive other cars with less than 5 stars, why is this one exceptional?

My family fleet certainly include classics that are unrated.

And of course the cars are engineered to get the highest result in each test.
If ncap decide that the test is worthwhile, it makes sense to engineer a car to pass it. You for one want to see 5 stars, so what's the point of engineering one that isn't safe?

You missed the quote on the home page.

'Michiel van Ratingen, Euro NCAP Secretary General, says ‘These results mark a milestone for the Chinese automotive industry. It is a clear sign that Chinese car makers are building on recent experiences and rapidly investing in better vehicle safety. Even with the upcoming increased demands, five stars are expected to be within reach soon.’

So even ncap agree with you, the cars are engineered to pass ncap safety tests, and will get even better results soon.

The most comparable cars in the new tests, as opposed to the pre 2009, are the Mazda 6, and the Subaru Legacy, that have very similar scores, but oddly enough, 5 stars as well. So as ncap say, I doubt there's a lot to seeing the 5 stars shortly.

If you look at pre 2009, there is a handful that score the 5 on adult, but not one that scores 5 for adult and child, so even the mondeo is only a 4 for a family car overall.

It's very easy to dismiss chinese as "rubbish" without looking at what they're doing now.