HPC have given up.......

homelessskilledworker

Timm wrote: »

That was me. Obviously.

I was never a natural bear, having been an EA and small time developer before I STRd. But I adapted to the obvious realities, got out of agency and posted on HPC as a bear for over four years until last week. Anyway, having called the 2007 top, the 2009 rebound and the 2010- stagflation (I prefer biflation), and (having become increasingly bullish) bought a little refurb project in early 2011, I thought it was only fair that I post my call for the bottom of the market last week.

I fully expected to be banned, especially as I changed my status to Bull. And of course I was - as ruggedtoast alludes to above, they now do this by changing your membership from "members" to "new members", which means your posts and profile are still visible, but you can't post (or PM).

HPC is still great if you want to discuss the nature of money, alt-economics or the conflicts of society. As a forum to argue the future of house prices or the real economics that affect us all it has been highly flawed since before I joined it. That's why places like this (hidden forum) and GEI and creditcrunch.co.uk and the sadly lamented GHPC sprang up. For me though, the future probably lies in action rather than discussion.

Failing that, CC or FTA.

Interesting post Timm.
I can totally see where you are coming from, my own view is that if the "crash" does not happen in the next couple of years then the odds of one happening at all are greatly reduced.

Also made the point that HPC posters would be better served becoming more pro active, an internet site of that type is just waiting to be started, HPC would close down over night if they did.

MrRee_2

Jimmy_31 wrote: »

What colour are they ?

They can be whatever colour you want them to be ...... what colour is your current handbag? You could match that? Just a thought.

dave4545454

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

It's a wonder you have made it to your 70's if you are so filled with anger and hate as you appear to be, you live in such a black and white world

in his 70's with high blood pressure and stress levels? ahhh i'm starting to see why ting tong married the old misery...kerching!!!:D

MrRee_2

Is Sibley in his 70's too?

dave4545454

MrRee wrote: »

Is Sibley in his 70's too?

yes, sibley has the exact same birthdate as you. what a coincidence eh?

Sibley

I cant even see a birthday. I'm only in my 40's anyway.

MrRee_2

Well, I'm truly confused now - I cannot see how anyone can see a banned poster and I cannot see how I could be mixed up with any other poster ...... my style is unique, after all.

Timm

Rinoa wrote: »

Hi Timm. Good to see you posting here. :T

Thanks Mr C!

But to be honest, I just want to get on with my life. The only threads that really attact my curiousity these days are the more abstract or nature of money threads, and I don't see many of those here.

Plus, the raw bear/bull aggression and the unremarked comment-cleansing turn me off. Which perhaps, begs the question of whether post-post moderation results in more or less irresponsible comment. Now that's a thread I might contribute to...

Timm

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

LOL

And you were always my second favourite late night poster.

You do realise that I'm placing you second after cgnao?

That leaves PG, pimp and the detective et al fighting for third...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

interesting perspective.

I found (a very few) HPC posters interesting to debate inasmuch as it's one of the few places outside of dedicated economics boards where you can run across people willing to argue about some pretty obscure economic theories.

But HPC's biggest weakness is the overwhelming confirmation bias and instinct to view the world through bear tinted glasses. A position worsened by the repeated banning of anyone with a contrary view.

Exactly. For every Cells or FreeTrader or Scepticus or ChefDave or HonestEA or (dare I say it) Injin, there is a daddybear or a brucebanner. HPC's problem is that bullishness is the view that dare not speak it's name. In some ways that is good: The remaining bullish posters have to explain their views in much more subtle and couched language if they want to remain unbanned. I considered taking that approach, but I couldn't be bothered. I felt that as long as I exposed my (current) opinion to the maximum number of regular posters, I'd done my moral duty. If the site moderators curtailed my future ramblings - well, I'd have made my position clear.

The problem on [MSE] is that the angry fundamentalists take up twice as much space because the bulls don't get automatically chucked out. Noisy stupid bears are exactly as bad as noisy stupid bulls.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

And that, above all else, is why HPC-ers continue to be so very wrong, and so very surprised when they finally realise it.

But they are not wrong.
It's just that they aren't nearly as right as they predicted.

Nominal prices (UK wide) are back to 2004, and affordability is back (depending on your prefered measure) to pre NewLabour. Prices in (almost?) every area outside (prime?) London are down over the last year and half decade. And the HPC 90% [off peak nominal value] club are always and forever going to be clowns, as are the bulls that expect another nominal hike such as what happened under NewLabour.


The below calls for an in-post response:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

was also fundamentally wrong about a lot of things. I would argue more than they were right about.

In no specific order, the big ones that come to mind are....

• Causes of the crash
  No. Loose credit and it's curtailment was widely identified.
• Timing of the crash
  Oh yeah. The initial site was about half a decade early.
• Duration of the crash
  Yup.
• Depth of the crash
  No. Most posters expected 10 - 30%.
• Effects of the crash
  Yup - Most bears had no idea of the effects.
• Aftermath of the crash
  Agreed.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

For a website founded a decade ago to discuss the imminent house price crash, those are some pretty major things to get completely and utterly wrong.:D

I utterly disagree.

Whatever the faults of HPC, it was the first mainstream focus for people who were able to predict the unavoidable result of the state guaranteed idiocy of the last decade or two.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Timm wrote: »

You do realise that I'm placing you second after cgnao?

Very kind of you, old boy.

Of course, being an unreformed narcissist of the first order, I'm only placing you second after me....;)

I felt that as long as I exposed my (current) opinion to the maximum number of regular posters, I'd done my moral duty. If the site moderators curtailed my future ramblings - well, I'd have made my position clear.

Well done. The right thing to do, even if it got a predictable response. Not sure quite why the mods there have such a messianic fervor about banning dissent, but it certainly doesn't serve the readers.

The problem on [MSE] is that the angry fundamentalists take up twice as much space because the bulls don't get automatically chucked out. Noisy stupid bears are exactly as bad as noisy stupid bulls.

Agreed. They're all equally ignorable though. And the signal to noise ratio is no worse here than it is elsewhere....

But they are not wrong.
It's just that they aren't nearly as right as they predicted.

We'll have to agree to disagree there..... "Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades", as a wise man once said.

When it comes to timing markets, funnily enough, timing really is everything. Screw that up, and being right will cost you more than being wrong.

Nominal prices (UK wide) are back to 2004, and affordability is back (depending on your prefered measure) to pre NewLabour. Prices in (almost?) every area outside (prime?) London are down over the last year and half decade. And the HPC 90% [off peak nominal value] club are always and forever going to be clowns, as are the bulls that expect another nominal hike such as what happened under NewLabour.

Whatever the faults of HPC, it was the first mainstream focus for people who were able to predict the unavoidable result of the state guaranteed idiocy of the last decade or two

When I'm not rushing off to catch an early morning flight, I'll answer that in more detail. I strongly disagree, and I've seen nothing so far to persuade me that I'm not on the right track with my reasoning.