Greece...

worldtraveller

antrobus wrote: »

No offers of any write offs have been made so far. Not that I've noticed, anyway.

I didn't say that they had and didn't mean that they had, and apologise if that's what you believed from my posts. However, I stand by my view that significant write-offs will indeed be made, either way.

ChiefGrasscutter

The Greeks need to be more 'creative' and to get tough
Tell the EU that unless they get the cash they will open their border to the east and let the immigrants (and of course ISIS) flood in.
That should get the EU's attention.

worldtraveller

ChiefGrasscutter wrote: »

The Greeks need to be more 'creative' and to get tough
Tell the EU that unless they get the cash they will open their border to the east and let the immigrants (and of course ISIS) flood in.
That should get the EU's attention.

Absolutely! That could well be their next bargaining ploy, but is surely already a factor being considered by the eurozone as well, as part of any risk assessment.

CLAPTON

ChiefGrasscutter wrote: »

The Greeks need to be more 'creative' and to get tough
Tell the EU that unless they get the cash they will open their border to the east and let the immigrants (and of course ISIS) flood in.
That should get the EU's attention.

I thought they had already threatened just such an action.

mystic_trev

With his speech at the Greek Parliament.

Tsipras then puts the boot in -- creditors proposals are unrealistic and “absurd”

Nice soundbites, but akin to calling your Bank Manager a c**t while asking for a loan!

globalds

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1Iv9stQ7V4

antrobus

worldtraveller wrote: »

I didn't say that they had and didn't mean that they had, and apologise if that's what you believed from my posts. However, I stand by my view that significant write-offs will indeed be made, either way.

But unlikely as part of a 'controlled Grexit'.:)

antrobus

mystic_trev wrote: »

...Nice soundbites, but akin to calling your Bank Manager a c**t while asking for a loan!

Basically, yes.:)

But, as you can see from this thread, some people seem to think that calling your Bank Manager a c**t, or indeed, threatening to trash his house, is simply a 'bargaining ploy'.:rotfl:

worldtraveller

"If Europe leaves us in the crisis, we will flood it with migrants, and it will be even worse for Berlin if in that wave of millions of economic migrants there will be some jihadists of the Islamic State too.”
Panos Kammenos, Greek defence minister - March, 2015

"....there will be tens of millions of immigrants and thousands of jihadists”.
Nikos Kotzias, Greek foreign minister - March, 2015

I would have said that such threats were certainly bargaining ploys, especially when, at the time, EU officials were so concerned by the Greek threats that the European Commission sought “assurances… that no measures to open up detention centres are being taken”.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

If the 'Brussels Group' are unwilling to offer "significant debt write-offs" in order to keep Greece in the Eurozone, I can't see them offering "significant debt write-offs" to help them get out .



I have an idea that if it happens, it will happen as a result of a Greek default, and will happen because everybody in the world starts acting on the basis that euros in a Greek bank are not euros. Except the Greeks, who will continue to pretend otherwise.



I presume that the ECB, or whatever entity owns all that Greek debt, will have to crystallise a Very Big Loss. But since everyone appears to think that Greece isn't going to pay the money back anyway, I can't see that making that much difference.

The total Greek debt is some way north of $400,000,000,000. Of that about 5% is owned by Greek banks and non-bank financial institutions. A bit more is held by the ECB as collateral (a bit like a mortgage on a house of cards I suspect but I didn't agree the deal, thank Bernanke). Member states are owed a bit more than 10% as part of the deal where they all chipped in some money and the Finns got the hump. Then about 20% is owned by the European Financial Stability Facility (I think that liability ultimately falls on the member Central Banks although I'm not 100% sure).

So that's about 50% of the debt accounted for.

Much of the rest of the debt will be held by the IMF although there will be a good chunk of it which is held by hedge funds (especially vulture funds).

Feel free to pick apart the figures as they came from a bit of a random Google rather than a systematic attempt to understand the actual debt profile.