Greece...

ILW

sabretoothtigger wrote: »

Just sounds like they dont get as much help as UK people do. Its a bit absolute between pay tax or nothing

How can they get help if the taxes are not being paid?

Most in the UK do not get the option whether to pay their taxes or not.

ChiefGrasscutter

Mrs_Bones wrote: »

That would be before they got to hold the next election, how would that work with only a caretaker government in charge.

No idea really: - mind you it's just yet another international bank putting out a policy paper/investment news/notes/inner thoughts or whatever they call it.
Though I guess the outflow of funds from Greek banks must be getting quite severe.
I always wondered whether they would even make it to the election date myself.
Just my speculation that maybe they all have some grim agreed plan such that even if the Greek people have moved their savings into say German banks but still denominated in Euros that regardless of these deposits no longer being "in Greece" then these Greek originating deposits would still be converted into new drachmas or whatever if Greece were to exit the Euro. Only if they converted these deposits to other currencies such as dollars etc would they be safe.

My favoured scenario for the end game was for them to default totally on all external debt.
That would bring down their budget deficit to something reasonable as they would no longer be paying interest on the debt which makes up a considerable part of the defecit.
Then continue to use the Euro and order the Greek Central bank to start printing Euros - much like our BofE. That would give them a few years to get things sorted without too much inflation being generated. Illegal - certainly under Euro rules but then would they care - is Germany going to invade them?
It would be a bit like other countries who unofficially use the USdollar as an operating currency I suppose.

Quite what the rest of the Euro zone would make of this I hate to think.

I'd say Ms Lagard is just terrified the Greeks might do something this and then the French Banks would be up sh** creek without a paddle. Hence her frantic demands that they must pay up or else.

Still think the best solution is for Germany to leave the Euro- not for some of the PIIGS to leave myself.

Rinoa

Ladbrokes and William Hill suspend betting on Greece leaving Euro.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/05/10/uk-greece-bets-idUKBRE8490MQ20120510

worldtraveller

Stan James seems to be the only one still in the market.

Will Greece announce their intention to leave the Euro by the end of 2012?

Current odds are Yes @ 6/5; No @ 8/13.

CLAPTON

ChiefGrasscutter wrote: »

Then continue to use the Euro and order the Greek Central bank to start printing Euros - much like our BofE. That would give them a few years to get things sorted without too much inflation being generated. Illegal - certainly under Euro rules but then would they care - is Germany going to invade them?
It would be a bit like other countries who unofficially use the USdollar as an operating currency I suppose.

it would be inconceiveable for the Greek central bank to print Euros.
It would be illegal under any set of rules in exactly the same way as if they started printing UK pounds;

it's totally unlike a country using some-one elses country

and yes if they did I would expect it to lead to a total blockade of the country tantamount to war.

pqrdef

ILW wrote: »

She needs to live within her means

Well I don't suppose she can sell the house, unless she lets it go for a song. Then she'll still have a big unsecured debt to pay off while living within her means in her tax-free cardboard box.

And the Greek banks are borrowing a fortune to stay liquid. But if they write down mortgage losses and become insolvent, there'll be no more borrowing and it's all over. There won't be many taxes paid when everybody's lost their money.

ILW

pqrdef wrote: »

Well I don't suppose she can sell the house, unless she lets it go for a song. Then she'll still have a big unsecured debt to pay off while living within her means in her tax-free cardboard box.

And the Greek banks are borrowing a fortune to stay liquid. But if they write down mortgage losses and become insolvent, there'll be no more borrowing and it's all over. There won't be many taxes paid when everybody's lost their money.

A lesson to all that there can be a price to pay for overborrowing and not paying your taxes. Maybe she and all her friends should have thought about it a few years ago.

pqrdef

ILW wrote: »

A lesson to all that there can be a price to pay for overborrowing and not paying your taxes. Maybe she and all her friends should have thought about it a few years ago.

So the banks are offering cheap mortgages, but nobody takes them up for fear of interest rates going through the roof somewhere down the line. Kind of undermines the whole point of low interest rates. A recipe for permanent recession, in fact. Economies depend on confidence, not fear.

ILW

pqrdef wrote: »

So the banks are offering cheap mortgages, but nobody takes them up for fear of interest rates going through the roof somewhere down the line. Kind of undermines the whole point of low interest rates. A recipe for permanent recession, in fact. Economies depend on confidence, not fear.

Economies also collapse on overconfidence, otherwise known as a bubble.

Can you refer to a Bubble when talking about Greece without being called racist?

drc

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

One of the biggest issues in my opinion(and many others) is the LACK of moral hazard in recent years, probably more so post 2007 with the financial crisis and the Euro debacle.

Well, the banks set the precedent in 2008 by being "too big to fail". Is it any wonder the plebs look up to their financial masters and want to emulate them?