Greece...

RJP33

remorseless wrote: »

What is Greece going to put on the 50bn fund?

Might as well chuck the Parthenon and what's left of the Agora and the first democracy in there.

Graham_Devon

This IMF thing is all over the news this morning.

The EU had the details at their meetings on Sunday, but it's being described that the creditors "dismissed the report" and "brushed it under the carpet"

AEP's view: "[The report's] conclusions validate what Greece’s Syriza government has been saying all along. The debt cannot be repaid. Any formula that fails to recognize this merely stores up an even bigger crisis down the road."

And the official IMF statement:

Greece’s public debt has become highly unsustainable. This is due to the easing of policies during the last year, with the recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and financial environment because of the closure of the banking system adding significantly to the adverse dynamics. The financing need through end-2018 is now estimated at Euro 85 billion and debt is expected to peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years, provided that there is an early agreement on a program. Greece’s debt can now only be made sustainable through debt relief measures that go far beyond what Europe has been willing to consider so far.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

...Funnily enough Varoufakis did understand how much the other European countries had invested in the project and he was right they would have caved and offered a much better deal to prevent Greece from leaving if Greece hadn't done it first.

I disagree. That's where Varoufakis was 100% wrong. Most of the EZ was prepared to let Greece go. The current deal is only on the table because of the obstinancy of France and Italy.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/199489/article/ekathimerini/news/italys-finmin-says-only-three-states-supported-deal-with-greece

The EZ matters more to Greece than Greece matters to the EZ.

enthusiasticsaver

It is Germany who will not agree with a haircut of Greece's debts, unsurprising as they are their biggest creditor. Ironic really that most of the bailout money Greece receives goes straight to their creditors so not sure how long that can continue. Greece seems determined to want to stay in the Eurozone though so I guess some sort of cobbled together deal will be done eventually. Italy of course does not want them to go as they will be the next "weakest link" along with Cyprus, Portugal and Spain.

antrobus

enthusiasticsaver wrote: »

It is Germany who will not agree with a haircut of Greece's debts,....

Actually it's Germany, and Finland, and Austria, and ... well basically everybody apart from France, Italy and (of course) Cyprus.

enthusiasticsaver

Other non EZ countries along with UK like Denmark, the Netherlands and Switzerland are saying they will not contribute to bail out fund. Does anyone else think this deal on Sunday is dead in the water?

Graham_Devon

Well, after Osbourne telling us yesterday that the idea of UK funds being used is a non starter, the EC has today formally proposed that the ESFM is used for emergency funding.

Not going to upset just osbourne and the UK, it's going to upset a few others too.

All 28 members of the EU will contribute.

The question now is, how long will we be contributing for? "Immediate funding needs" could carry on for some time. Currently, I believe the money only takes us up until the 20th July and the funding basically goes towards paying the ECB payments.

antrobus

remorseless wrote: »

What is Greece going to put on the 50bn fund?

Presumably, whatever is already in the Hellenic Republic Asset Management Fund aka TAIPED will be a start, including the shares of the Hellenic Football Prognostics Organisation. (That's the Greek betting monopoly.:))

http://www.hradf.com/en/the-fund

michaels

antrobus wrote: »

I disagree. That's where Varoufakis was 100% wrong. Most of the EZ was prepared to let Greece go. The current deal is only on the table because of the obstinancy of France and Italy.

http://www.ekathimerini.com/199489/article/ekathimerini/news/italys-finmin-says-only-three-states-supported-deal-with-greece

The EZ matters more to Greece than Greece matters to the EZ.

I was going to say that only history will tell us...but then again it is the victors who write the history books so perhaps not.

I still maintain that those who set up monetary union did so because they understood that it would eventually require fiscal (and political) union and not because they didn't understand this.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

I was going to say that only history will tell us...but then again it is the victors who write the history books so perhaps not...

There is not need to consult any books; just ask Pier Carlo Padoan.:)

michaels wrote: »

...I still maintain that those who set up monetary union did so because they understood that it would eventually require fiscal (and political) union and not because they didn't understand this.

Well of course. As I have said before; what is about ever closer union that you don't understand?