Greece...

ruggedtoast

Looks like the Germans are actually being expected to take some responsibility for lending to a debtor that had no way of repaying. This appears to be new territory for them.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

Presumably, whatever is already in the Hellenic Republic Asset Management Fund aka TAIPED will be a start, including the shares of the Hellenic Football Prognostics Organisation. (That's the Greek betting monopoly.:))

http://www.hradf.com/en/the-fund

They're off to a bad start (from your link as well as from the Google links):

Incapsula cannot service requests to the web site you are trying to access (The site was probably removed from the service because it is in violation of our terms of service or if it is under a DDoS attack and site service plan does not cover DDoS mitigation).

Generali

I just read a very interesting comment in the FT that sums up the German problem very succinctly:

Germany needs to decide whether the Eurozone is:
a) a currency peg; or
b) a fiscal and transfer union.
If a), then member states that hit a bumpy patch will be picked off one by one, defaulting on loans to their creditors, leaving northern European politicians to explain why they lied to their electorates that none of their taxpayers' money would be lost by lending to the periphery.

If b), then northern European politicians will also have to explain to their electorate how it is that their taxpayers' money, contrary to their earlier lies, will after all be used to subsidise the economies of the periphery.

Note to Merkel and Schäuble: rock or hard place, the choice is yours

The IMF has cheerfully admitted that their earlier estimates of how bad things are were way out and that either the loans get extended out to 60 years on current terms or creditors must take a haircut.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15186.pdf

Greece’s public debt has become highly unsustainable. This is due to the easing of policies during the last year, with the recent deterioration in the domestic macroeconomic and
financial environment because of the closure of the banking system adding significantly to the adverse dynamics. The financing need through end-2018 is now estimated at Euro 85 billion and debt is expected to peak at close to 200 percent of GDP in the next two years, provided that there is an early agreement on a program. Greece’s debt can now only be made sustainable through debt relief measures that go far beyond what Europe has been willing to consider so far.

Oh and if you were wondering what a drop of GDP of 25% actually means to the man on the Athens Omnibus, take health outcomes:

http://scholar.google.com.au/scholar_url?url=http://www.etui.org/content/download/13230/110812/file/PIIS0140673613622916.pdf&hl=en&sa=X&scisig=AAGBfm3Fn9YP-fcLZGp_id0QKJFIA6dseQ&nossl=1&oi=scholarr&ved=0CB0QgAMoAjAAahUKEwiQqPzRgN3GAhXiHaYKHdWsCdM

Between 2010 and 2012 alone:

- Depression rose by 250%
- Suicide attempts rose by 39%

Between 2008 and 2011, stillbirths rose by 21%, and AIUI continue to rise, and infant mortality rose by almost 50%.

HIV is on the rise as druggies return to sharing needles and prostitutes can't afford condoms (or afford to make their Johns wear them).

Malaria has returned as the Government can't afford to spray for mozzies.

All to bail out BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank and to prevent the German Government losing face.

remorseless

Generali wrote: »

Oh and if you were wondering what a drop of GDP of 25% actually means to the man on the Athens Omnibus, take health outcomes:

http://scholar.google.com.au/scholar_url?url=http://www.etui.org/content/download/13230/110812/file/PIIS0140673613622916.pdf&hl=en&sa=X&scisig=AAGBfm3Fn9YP-fcLZGp_id0QKJFIA6dseQ&nossl=1&oi=scholarr&ved=0CB0QgAMoAjAAahUKEwiQqPzRgN3GAhXiHaYKHdWsCdM

Between 2010 and 2012 alone:

- Depression rose by 250%
- Suicide attempts rose by 39%

Between 2008 and 2011, stillbirths rose by 21%, and AIUI continue to rise, and infant mortality rose by almost 50%.

HIV is on the rise as druggies return to sharing needles and prostitutes can't afford condoms (or afford to make their Johns wear them).

Malaria has returned as the Government can't afford to spray for mozzies.

All to bail out BNP Paribas and Deutsche Bank and to prevent the German Government losing face.

Any books on how poorer countries than Greece have to fork out money to bail them out?

The gov may not be able to spray for mozzies but seems to be able to afford to re-hire cleaners?

HIV I believe is a huge problem in Estonia (eastern part) too, should Greek people contribute to address that given that Estonian GDP is lower than Greece?

It's a tough cookie, how to solve? Going to be hard!
Should we look at Europe as a whole or just Greece in isolation?

Generali

remorseless wrote: »

Any books on how poorer countries than Greece have to fork out money to bail them out?

The gov may not be able to spray for mozzies but seems to be able to afford to re-hire cleaners?

HIV I believe is a huge problem in Estonia (eastern part) too, should Greek people contribute to address that given that Estonian GDP is lower than Greece?

It's a tough cookie, how to solve? Going to be hard!
Should we look at Europe as a whole or just Greece in isolation?

The solution is obvious and has been since the start.

Stop bailing Greece out and decide the terms of the 'bankruptcy'.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

The solution is obvious and has been since the start.
...

Yep.

Leverage the only decent assets Greece has left.

A few islands.

So...how much is a 99 year lease on somewhere like Rhodes worth? or Kefalonia?

I'm sure some uber rich central European businesses and wealthocrats might fancy some prime location tourist real estate that they could develop. Dubai is a bit of a trek after all.

A few Greeks might have to move out of course.

wotsthat

Generali wrote: »

The solution is obvious and has been since the start.

Stop bailing Greece out and decide the terms of the 'bankruptcy'.

Has it been obvious from the start or just with hindsight?

It might be obvious now but there were many more 'known unknowns' in 2010 and the bailout allowed time for discovery and protection.

It seemed Greece might be a big deal then but, 5 years later, a bankruptcy should only cause ripples befitting the size of their economy and it's turned from a finance story to a political story.

remorseless

Generali wrote: »

The solution is obvious and has been since the start.

Stop bailing Greece out and decide the terms of the 'bankruptcy'.

BINGO :beer:
maybe the start of this latest saga! Now that the 'inconvenience' has been isolated it can be chopped off!

Given the tuff conditions offered, the animosity from other EZ countries it makes you wonder why is Greece so desperate to stay in the EZ rather than just default!

Generali

remorseless wrote: »

BINGO :beer:
maybe the start of this latest saga! Now that the 'inconvenience' has been isolated it can be chopped off!

Given the tuff conditions offered, the animosity from other EZ countries it makes you wonder why is Greece so desperate to stay in the EZ rather than just default!

What should have happened in the first instance is that the IMF should have been called in, Greece reverted to the Drachma or printed Euro denominated promissary notes so she could recapitalise her banking system or simply Nationalise it, agree a haircut with the IMF with the IMF providing rolling credit facilities to the Greek Government in return for preferred creditor status.

I have been pretty consistent about this: Greece can't pay her debts because she owes too much. It's not that hard to understand. Go to the DFW board to see what happens when you exceed your capacity to service your debts.

remorseless

Generali wrote: »

I have been pretty consistent about this: Greece can't pay her debts because she owes too much. It's not that hard to understand. Go to the DFW board to see what happens when you exceed your capacity to service your debts.

She owes too much, she spends too much, she expects too much.
She doesn't like to reform, she let her citizen dodge tax.

It's not just the debt, it's the overall!

When Latvia had to cut spending:

A third of teachers in Latvia have been laid off; the rest have endured savage salary cuts, leaving them barely above the minimum wage. Many have seen their pension entitlements slashed by 70 per cent; doctors and police officers face sacrificing a fifth of their pay. According to local reports, the state has cancelled some scheduled operations and hospitals are turning away some sick patients.

(Min wage in Latvia is 360.00 EUR per month (Jan 2015))

Why is Greece special? I suppose they're now desperate for the 3rd bailout because realistically, what other options do they have?
Would default even be an option? Then what?