Greece...

michaels

antrobus wrote: »

I believe that almost all EU states are currently running a primary surplus at present with the exception (it seems) of Greece and (of course) the UK. In the latter case, you can address your complaints to a Mr G Osborne at 11 Downing St, London, and make your plea for some more austerity.

But if you're really interested in the question, I suspect that someone like Eurostat or the OECD may have some data on the subject.



Not at the moment. In the first 5 months of this year, those Greeks appear to have around a €600m Primary deficit.

That surprises me as I thought (off the top of my head) that France for example was running a deficit of about 4% of GDP - I am just surpirsed that that is all interest.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

That surprises me as I thought (off the top of my head) that France for example was running a deficit of about 4% of GDP - I am just surpirsed that that is all interest.

France, that other country being run by an anti-austerity party.:)

Fortunately for France they are not bankrupt. The sad thing about being bankrupt, is that once you're bankrupt you have no choice other than to reduce your spending to match your income.

That is not politics, it is accounting.

michaels

Sure, but very like individual finances, if you can declare yourself bankrupt and walk away from your debts as long as you can survice on what you earn and transact in cash then perhaps you are better off than spending x% of your income pretty much forever including 100% of any increases in income merely servicing your existing debts.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Sure, but very like individual finances, if you can declare yourself bankrupt and walk away from your debts as long as you can survice on what you earn and transact in cash then perhaps you are better off than spending x% of your income pretty much forever including 100% of any increases in income merely servicing your existing debts.

And the point I was making in post #1689 was that Greece is currently not doing that; Greece only achieved a 'surplus' of €557m by means of not paying €1,200m worth of bills, i.e. a deficit of €600m or so.

antrobus

The Guardian's verdict;

Five months of brinkmanship has caused untold damage to the Greek economy for no purpose whatsoever.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/10/tsipras-greek-economy-sabre-purpose

michaels

antrobus wrote: »

And the point I was making in post #1689 was that Greece is currently not doing that; Greece only achieved a 'surplus' of €557m by means of not paying €1,200m worth of bills, i.e. a deficit of €600m or so.

Agreed, but is not part of the reason they have gone from a small primary surpls last year to a deficit this year because of the uncertainty surrounding their finances reducing economic activity rather than because they have suddenly become more profiligate. Under the circumstances I would have either curtailed my economic activity or made sure it didn't go via Greek banks (and in avoiding the banks it would probably also have avoided the tax authorities)....

My point being it is perhaps not necessarily the greeks fault that they ar running a small defiicit and that actually they have done much more than we have to implement austerity.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Agreed, but is not part of the reason they have gone from a small primary surpls last year to a deficit this year because of the uncertainty surrounding their finances reducing economic activity rather than because they have suddenly become more profiligate. Under the circumstances I would have either curtailed my economic activity or made sure it didn't go via Greek banks (and in avoiding the banks it would probably also have avoided the tax authorities)....

According to the IMF it's because of the Greek failure to implement the 'agreed programme'. After all, Greece did elect an anti-asuterity government in January which said it was going to reverse all this austerity. One should not therefore be surprised that the fiscal position has deteriorated as a result.

michaels wrote: »

...My point being it is perhaps not necessarily the greeks fault that they ar running a small defiicit and that actually they have done much more than we have to implement austerity.

Fault and blame is of no real consequence. The remorseless logic of accountancy is what matters.

Particularly the First Law; cash in must exceed cash out.:)

remorseless

antrobus wrote: »

The Guardian's verdict;

Five months of brinkmanship has caused untold damage to the Greek economy for no purpose whatsoever.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/10/tsipras-greek-economy-sabre-purpose

Of course and lots of animosity too - I was look at that image I posted before and it amazed me how lots of smaller countries now are starting to 'overtake' the old big ones!


39% Support, 42% Against, 19% Avoid Grexit

It's very interesting dynamic, much different from the early stage of the EU with the 'founding' members that now seems to be growing smaller!!!

I am still hoping for a Grexit!!! :T

wotsthat

remorseless wrote: »

I am still hoping for a Grexit!!! :T

Tsipras has offered a proposal which he can be fairly sure the Eurogroup will accept because it's the same one they offered him and the Greeks just voted to reject.

The hurdle I imagine is the creditors know Tsipras is a liar and given his incompetence might well be replaced with someone else who decides any new bailout is criminal shortly after the money has been spent.

The solution will be funds are much more tied to completed reforms rather than promised reforms. The obvious problem with that is there will be multitude of payment gateways with anyone of them having the potential to be a crisis.

The Eurogroup could give the 'can' the mother of all kicks but they just can't trust Greece to do what they say they'll do. Without trust they may well reach an agreement but it'll smell of fudge.

remorseless

wotsthat wrote: »

Tsipras has offered a proposal which he can be fairly sure the Eurogroup will accept because it's the same one they offered him and the Greeks just voted to reject.

The hurdle I imagine is the creditors know Tsipras is a liar and given his incompetence might well be replaced with someone else who decides any new bailout is criminal shortly after the money has been spent.

The solution will be funds are much more tied to completed reforms rather than promised reforms. The obvious problem with that is there will be multitude of payment gateways with anyone of them having the potential to be a crisis.

The Eurogroup could give the 'can' the mother of all kicks but they just can't trust Greece to do what they say they'll do. Without trust they may well reach an agreement but it'll smell of fudge.

I totally agree, from the creditor perspective it maybe hard to believe that this time Greece is going to walk the talk and not just making yet another empty promise! Very short leash this time!!!

But with the country running out of moolah by the weekend, it's going to be hard!

Actually, is there a list of 'achievements' from Greece for the past 5 years showing what they attempted to do?