Greece...

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

And what primary surplus has been run in the other EUR states or indeed the UK over the last 10 years?....

I believe that almost all EU states are currently running a primary surplus at present with the exception (it seems) of Greece and (of course) the UK. In the latter case, you can address your complaints to a Mr G Osborne at 11 Downing St, London, and make your plea for some more austerity.

But if you're really interested in the question, I suspect that someone like Eurostat or the OECD may have some data on the subject.

michaels wrote: »

...Or does it turn out that those profiligate tax dodging Greeks are actually running a much tighter fiscal regime than anywhere else in the EUR zone?

Not at the moment. In the first 5 months of this year, those Greeks appear to have around a €600m Primary deficit.

Gavin234

If they go back to the drachma, does that mean it's backed by silver? Will they be real silver drachmas? Or if not what is it backed by? The credit worthiness of the Greek government?

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

IIRC, in the last 50 financial years there have been 5 years in which the UK has run a surplus and 45 in which she has run a deficit....

Well, of course we are talking about primary surplus/deficits here, which is something slightly different. As it happens, the UK's performance in that regard isn't that spectacular either.

See for example;

Long-term fiscal sustainability by James Zuccollo
http://www.reform.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/1.pdf

The paper makes points such as "the UK has had a fairly consistent primary budget deficit for the past twenty years" and that the "government’s fiscal balance only ventured above the sustainable level for six of the past 34 years to 2012".

Figure 2 is quite informative in this regard, as it clearly shows what damage was done in the years 2000-2010, and the scale of the task faced in 2010 in ensuring that the UK did not share the fate of Greece.

antrobus

Gavin234 wrote: »

If they go back to the drachma, does that mean it's backed by silver? Will they be real silver drachmas? Or if not what is it backed by? The credit worthiness of the Greek government?

The credit worthiness of the Greek government, I'd guess.

I'm not sure if Greece has any silver. I believe the Bank of Greece has a few billion euro in gold reserves. But then again, I remember reading that a lot of that gold is with the BoE and the Fed, so in the event it might not be able to get its hands on it.

remorseless

Tough crowd this time!!!


I guess they've the right to be skeptical after being fooled twice already and a referendum against it!

Though I think the EU doesn't have the gut to pull the plug!!!

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

Well, of course we are talking about primary surplus/deficits here, which is something slightly different. As it happens, the UK's performance in that regard isn't that spectacular either.

See for example;

Long-term fiscal sustainability by James Zuccollo
http://www.reform.uk/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/1.pdf

The paper makes points such as "the UK has had a fairly consistent primary budget deficit for the past twenty years" and that the "government’s fiscal balance only ventured above the sustainable level for six of the past 34 years to 2012".

Figure 2 is quite informative in this regard, as it clearly shows what damage was done in the years 2000-2010, and the scale of the task faced in 2010 in ensuring that the UK did not share the fate of Greece.

If you're running an absolute surplus then by definition you are running a primary surplus.

TBH the idea of a primary surplus isn't really pertinent unless you are likely to default. The net level of borrowing including debt repayments is what counts at a country level otherwise.

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

If you're running an absolute surplus then by definition you are running a primary surplus....

Obviously. But you can be running an absolute deficit whilst running a primary surplus.

Generali wrote: »

...TBH the idea of a primary surplus isn't really pertinent unless you are likely to default. The net level of borrowing including debt repayments is what counts at a country level otherwise.

It's pertinent in terms of the long term sustainability of debt. You could well argue that the UK's historic primary budget deficits were an indicator of the problems to come.

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

It's pertinent in terms of the long term sustainability of debt. You could well argue that the UK's historic primary budget deficits were an indicator of the problems to come.

Maybe. I'd argue that a better indicator would be the change in absolute net debt vs GDP (i.e. is debt rising faster than the ability to pay).

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

Maybe. I'd argue that a better indicator would be the change in absolute net debt vs GDP (i.e. is debt rising faster than the ability to pay).

Except that if you looked at the UK in the period 2000-2008, then the Debt/GDP ratio would have told you that everything was fine, although as it turmed out, it wasn't.:)

buglawton

You should never waste a good referendum... but looks like Tsipras did.

he should have done the following: Put together 2 alternative packages:

1. Yes to stay in the Euro with an austerity package just like the one he finally proposed late last night.
2. No to austerity and don't try too hard to stay in the Euro (which was Tsipras' stance right up until last night).

and put THAT to the vote in the referendum.

By not doing the above, he's sown divisive seeds and it the outcome - either way - will come to haunt him and his party.