Rightmove Jan +0.4% YoY, -0.8% MoM

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/news/files/2012/01/january-2012.pdf

Record level of search activity as value-seeking buyers face the smallest ever choice of new listings:

- 44 million property searches in first 10 days of 2012, up 27% on 2011, highlighting pent-up demand held back by ongoing mortgage famine

- Estate agents marketing less than one new property per week per branch, the lowest ever seen

- First week of 2012 sees asking prices rise by 1.4%, though prices still down 0.8% on the month - an early indicator that a new seller shortage is likely to underpin prices this year, especially in ‘micro-markets’ where supply is limited

Generali

Sellers won't sell, buyers can't buy. Something has to give eventually or things just muddle along with 0% nominal price changes and eventually sellers and buyers can meet.

It's not going to be too long until my theory about baby boomers retiring and wanting to sell to top up the pension will be tested. That will be the Rubicon moment for the housing market I reckon.

homelessskilledworker

Generali wrote: »

Sellers won't sell, buyers can't buy. Something has to give eventually or things just muddle along with 0% nominal price changes and eventually sellers and buyers can meet.

It's not going to be too long until my theory about baby boomers retiring and wanting to sell to top up the pension will be tested. That will be the Rubicon moment for the housing market I reckon.

I partially agree, babyboomers will cash in and do very well even if they have to take a haircut(an agressive haircut even), they have been on the ladder for decades.
The you have the type that are obviously hanging about on sites such as this who are up to their necks in mortgage debt and are forced to sit it out praying that things will turn around. I have a 50 year old mate right now who came out of a messy divorce in late 2000's and jumped straight back on the property market, he is now renting it out and just hoping it gets back to a level where he can break even, he has no choice now.

Trouble is you only need a few forced sellers to set the new market rate:)

DervProf

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

- First week of 2012 sees asking prices rise by 1.4%,

Talk about "noise" in the data.

I mean, what conclusion can we draw from asking prices rising by 1.4% in the first week of 2012 ? (I'd be saying the same if it was a drop of 1.4%).

It's been said many times before, they're only asking prices, and out of all the monthly data we get about the property market, the rightmove figures are the ones that give the cloudiest picture on where the market is heading.

RenovationMan

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

I partially agree, babyboomers will cash in and do very well even if they have to take a haircut(an agressive haircut even), they have been on the ladder for decades.

The trouble is that recent retirees have already taken a haircut on their pensions because QE has reduced the amounts they can get on their annuities, so they are more likely to hold onto their mortgage free properties in the hope that a recovery lifts their values. Unless the house is so large that it's costing them a lot of money to stay put, they'll remain in the family homes.

moneyinmypocket

Regardless of age nobody would want to take a hair cut (or an aggressive one as you put it)

ukcarper

Generali wrote: »

Sellers won't sell, buyers can't buy. Something has to give eventually or things just muddle along with 0% nominal price changes and eventually sellers and buyers can meet.

It's not going to be too long until my theory about baby boomers retiring and wanting to sell to top up the pension will be tested. That will be the Rubicon moment for the housing market I reckon.

I am a babyboomer and have retired before I retired I considered downsizing to top up my pension. I have found that by making savings I can live on my pension and with falling house prices and the costs of downsizing I can’t see the point as it will only give me a small amount of money.

RenovationMan

ukcarper wrote: »

I am a babyboomer and have retired before I retired I considered downsizing to top up my pension. I have found that by making savings I can live on my pension and with falling house prices and the costs of downsizing I can’t see the point as it will only give me a small amount of money.

Plus it means that you have to move away from neighboursand friends that you could have known for decades. With kids living at home for longer and Grandchildren staying over, it often makes sense for retirees to hold onto family homes that little bit longer than they were planning to.

shortchanged_2

- 44 million property searches in first 10 days of 2012, up 27% on 2011, highlighting pent-up demand held back by ongoing mortgage famine

I look on rightmove quite a lot but I am not a serious buyer. Does that count as pent up demand?

It's probably just a lot of people bored of facebook after Christmas, looking for a change of scene.

wotsthat

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Trouble is you only need a few forced sellers to set the new market rate:)

A few forced sellers selling will only set rates for the market in forced selling.

Everyone else seems to be sitting tight.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

shortchanged wrote: »

It's probably just a lot of people bored of facebook after Christmas, looking for a change of scene.

You keep telling yourself that if it makes you feel any better.;)

But back in the real world, there is an absolutely massive backlog of pent-up demand building.

And as Rightmove note, new supply has now reached it's lowest level ever.