Solar PV Feed In Tariffs - Good or Bad?

rogerblack

don0301 wrote: »

steady there Roger!

you're (cardew ) being a bit positive there!

If you're attempting to claim that I'm also Cardew, you are quite mistaken.
Being strongly against the Feed-in-tariff does not mean not seeing a possible role for PV in the future, under different legislative arrangements.

don0301

rogerblack wrote: »

If you're attempting to claim that I'm also Cardew, you are quite mistaken.
Being strongly against the Feed-in-tariff does not mean not seeing a possible role for PV in the future, under different legislative arrangements.

not at all!

that is a private joke with cardew about spelling

Martyn1981

rogerblack wrote: »

In addition, above Moores law was mentioned.
This _DOES_NOT_APPLY_ to solar panels, as one of the prime reasons for Moores law working is that the area of a chip with a similar functionality drops with time.
Clearly this isn't the case with solar panels!

One way in which solar could be made easier would be if brackets for solar were installed at the time the roof was constructed.
This would let (in principle) fitting be an hours job with a cherry-picker.

Hiya, Roger, yeah I know Moore's law was a little bit of a stretch here, but worth a punt, as the production increase to cost falls, follow a similar pattern. Not sure where the bottom is, but I strongly suspect that it is not the silicon, rather the glass and ally which you mentioned. (Edit) Oops, as Z mentioned. Possibly around £50 per panel (20p/watt) - too optimistic?

Regarding brackets on roofs, I'd agree 100% (more in fact, but don't you just hate the Americanisation of 110%).

Hadn't thought of cherry pickers, one van with electrician's gear and a trailer with a CP on top. Cool.

I've mentioned before (ages ago) that I think prices are now low enough to justify planning consent rules to be applied to commercial new build. At the very least 'PV friendly roofs'. The idea of having pre-installed brackets really appeals to me. Especially given the standardisation of most supermarkets etc, that have multi ridged A frame style roof construction.

Mart.

PS Don got told off for using your, instead of you're. I think he was paying you a compliment too.

Martyn1981

So, new(er) proposals

http://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/news/pn12_010/pn12_010.aspx

Thankfully changed EPC requirement to D (from C)

Interesting article, giving possible results:

http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2145090/government-angers-industry-slash-solar-incentives

Like the sound of the 10% reduction each 6 months, not a million miles away from my guess that rates may be dropped 2p every 6 months - though somehow I doubt anyone is listening to me!!!

22GW installed by 2020, that sounds hard, but if commerce/industry get on board, who knows, should be interesting to say the least.

Mart.

John_Pierpoint

rogerblack wrote: »

But there is no real technology that looks likely to hit 35% efficiency in the near term.
(10 years).

I see that for those with a small roof Panasonic/Sanyo crown for efficiency seems to be passing to Sunpower (21%) panels.
http://solgate.ca/panasonic-to-build-300mw-pv-manufacturing-plant-in-malaysia/
http://us.sunpowercorp.com/about/history/

Martyn1981

Not being at all constructive John, but I have to reprint that line from Suntech:

"With our revolutionary patented, all-back contact, SunPower® Maxeon™ solar cell technology."

Sounds like a line from a sci-fi movie, or a QVC sales pitch. Just jumped out at me.

Unless I've made a mistake, at 22%, that could mean on both E/W roofs, an 8kWp system generating around 9MWh's pa. Time to buy a Nissan Leaf, or plug-in Prius?

Mart.

Edit: That was a very bad description, should have said, 'for the same space as a regular 8kWp system'. Would actually be about 12kWp installed. M.

John_Pierpoint

Interestingly there is oil money financing the world's second largest solar cell manufacturer.
http://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2011/12/23/sunpower-expands-european-reach-with.html?page=all

Here are the others:

http://www.luxresearchinc.com/images/stories/brochures/Press_Releases/RELEASE_Q3_2011_Supply_Tracker_1_19_12.pdf

No exactly household names are they?!

Get the feeling that this country, with it's busted banks, is very much standing on the side-lines.

http://us.sunpowercorp.com/about/the-worlds-standard-for-solar/most-efficient-solar/

Martyn1981

Ok, cheeky question, have the worldwide FITs schemes helped to bring production up, and prices down to "financially viable"?

Regardless of environmental concerns, economics will win out over any subsidy scheme in the long run. So can the 'heavy lifting' now be done elsewhere?

New Scientist article on solar panel prices and India - Some extracts:

Last years panel price drops, now mean for communities without grid connection in India (25% of them), PV electricity is now cheaper than that from diesel generators.

The Energy and Resources Institute in New Delhi states that solar panels initially cost more than a generator, but solar becomes cheaper after 7 years of use and diesel consumption.

India's 'Solar Mission' is to install 20,000MW of panels by 2020 (similar I believe to the UK's target).

Solar panels fell 50% in price last year, now 25% of 2008 price. Now a cost effective option for many people in developing countries.

In India, due to frequent blackouts, many homes and factories also install diesel generators. Sadly many people are suffering health problems from the amount of fumes.

Cost of electricity supplied to the grid: 8.78 rupees (kWh) for solar, 17 rupees for diesel. Coal is currently half the price of solar.

The drop has little to do with improvements in efficiency. According to Jenny Chase, Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), 'it is all largely down to economies of scale'. Solar panels capable of generating 27GW produced in 2011, 7.7GW in 2009.

Chase states that solar now cheaper than diesel 'anywhere as sunny as Spain'. That means vast areas of Latin America, Africa and Asia could start adopting solar power.

Suntech's in house analysts predict that by 2015, solar electricity will be as cheap as grid electricity in half of all countries.

Back to the question. Has FITs worked?

Once the economic solar countries (too poor to subsidise PV), come on line, and industry and commerce (whose economies of scale, and higher consumption % of generation) become financially viable, can we forget about subsidies to artificially enlarge production, and just sit back and let the really Big Bad Monster takeover - Economics?

Mart.

John_Pierpoint

Interestingly my inverter manufacturer "Power one", claiming to be number two in inverter manufacturer, has identified India, in their annual report, as one of the two world markets for a development drive in 2012.

The_Green_Hornet

The Eden Project has become home to yet another ground-breaking project, installing the UK’s first employee-owned renewable energy installation.

Ebico, the UK’s only not-for-profit electricity supplier, financed the installation of 200 solar panels across a selection of Eden’s storage buildings. Eden employees have been invited to buy shares in the installation. The shares, which start at £200, offer shareholders a proportion of the feed-in tariff income over the next 25 years. As a result of this innovative solution, Ebico will see its initial investment returned and employees are expected to enjoy returns of over 10 percent per year.

One of the most common criticisms levelled at the feed-in tariff is that it the funding gathered is disproportionately dispersed amongst society, as only the more affluent are capable of the initial investment in renewable technologies, such as solar PV. The aim of the solar project at Eden was to demonstrate that the FiT scheme can be used to directly engage those not capable of purchasing a system themselves and receive the benefit of financial incentives linked to micro-generation.

http://www.solarpowerportal.co.uk/news/eden_project_unveils_uks_first_employee-owned_renewable_installation_2356/