It's finally here... the start of the long awaited property crash

sims01

The_White_Horse wrote: »

er, where is this from? The BullSh1t Times?

so boom and bust is cyclical. some people have been saying for a decade that house prices will crash. and now, after a decade of predictions house prices have fallen very slightly in some areas (and continue to rise in others). So the house in 2003 that was worth 150k is now worth 450k, down from 480k at peak. Big Deal. I bet the person who didn't buy the house in 2003, spent about 100k on rent and the house is still triple what they could have bought it for is well pleased.

laughable.

and i am not a bull at all. i think prices will simply stagnate for years.

Wouldn't be quite as complacent. Right now house prices are kept fairly high by two things - population growth (largely due to positive net migration) significantly faster than new house building and low interest rates.

Should either of these change or reverse, there is a significant probability of nominal house price falls. At the moment though there is no real indication of migration slowing down or rates rising, so doubt it is going to be next year. But quite a few possible outcomes of this crisis could serve as a catalyst for such a change (e.g. a disorderly break-up with the EU resulting in large numbers of people leaving, a decline of London as a financial centre in favour of NY and/or Asian hubs or even just continuing sustained high budget deficit forcing up rates). So we'll see how the next few years turn out.

MrRee_2

Boom was 2007

Crash bottomed 2009 - but it wasn't really a crash, was it?

Firming prices 2010

Rising Prices 2011

Boom times 2012

I am very old, I have seen all this before - you simply cannot undo the fact that 99% of the people want their own home and there isn't enough to go around.

somethingcorporate

Rising prices? not sure which country you are talking about....house prices continue to slide in our part of the world.

You may seem to think that some rises localised to a tiny part of the country (london) is widely applicable - it isn't.

mcc100

MrRee wrote: »

Boom times 2012

Comical Ali 2

homelessskilledworker

Dan: wrote: »

This is getting boring. Nevertheless, thread bookmarked for another laugh in 12 months.

Good idea, I would like to think that everyone has it bookmarked this time next year.
No offence at you Dan, because I slightly understand where you are coming from. But I am sure that out of the 65 million people in the UK I am certain you will find any one of them at any one time making all sorts of predictions.
All that matters to me is what 2012 is going to bring, and this is the first prediction I have made, I am not interested in what was said in the past by OTHER people.

Just look at the facts, those saying that boom times are coming in 2012 need to do the explaining

ruggedtoast

MrRee wrote: »

Boom was 2007

Crash bottomed 2009 - but it wasn't really a crash, was it?

Firming prices 2010

Rising Prices 2011

Boom times 2012

I am very old, I have seen all this before - you simply cannot undo the fact that 99% of the people want their own home and there isn't enough to go around.

Good grief, has this stupid recession really been going on for five years now?

Dan:_4

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Good idea, I would like to think that everyone has it bookmarked this time next year.
No offence at you Dan, because I slightly understand where you are coming from. But I am sure that out of the 65 million people in the UK I am certain you will find any one of them at any one time making all sorts of predictions.
All that matters to me is what 2012 is going to bring, and this is the first prediction I have made, I am not interested in what was said in the past by OTHER people.

Just look at the facts, those saying that boom times are coming in 2012 need to do the explaining

What exactly is your prediction? and why does 2012 matter to you so much?

I know your a new member here and said your not intersted in what other people have said in the past, but it's worth pointing out that every december we get told the shame shi!te - that next year will be ambergeddon - and this has often been stated as FACT rather then a predcition.

joguest

The_White_Horse wrote: »

er, where is this from? The BullSh1t Times?

so boom and bust is cyclical. some people have been saying for a decade that house prices will crash. and now, after a decade of predictions house prices have fallen very slightly in some areas (and continue to rise in others). So the house in 2003 that was worth 150k is now worth 450k, down from 480k at peak. Big Deal. I bet the person who didn't buy the house in 2003, spent about 100k on rent and the house is still triple what they could have bought it for is well pleased.

laughable.

and i am not a bull at all. i think prices will simply stagnate for years.

I've read some stupid, innumerate, ignorant comments on here, but this one surpasses them all. In which part of the UK are house prices 200% higher than 2003 exactly? The Halifax index shows that prices are where they were in 2004 (in nominal terms - in real terms they're back to 2003 or earlier). Did they rise by 200% between 2003 and 2004? The fact that so many people 'liked' your comments speaks volumes about the dumb mentality that bred the bubble.

homelessskilledworker

Dan: wrote: »

What exactly is your prediction? and why does 2012 matter to you so much?

I know your a new member here and said your not intersted in what other people have said in the past, but it's worth pointing out that every december we get told the shame shi!te - that next year will be ambergeddon - and this has often been stated as FACT rather then a predcition.

2012 is going to be the start of the REAL recession, or if you are one of these people who think it has been tough since 2007(and I am not saying it has not been) then I am saying 2012 will be the toughest year to date with things remaining flat or worse in 2013 onwards.

I am far from being a contrarian like so many of the people you talk about in previous years, the whole of the economical and media world along with many political pundits will side with me.

I plead with anyone that has a genuine argument that the property market will turn around for the better next year to share their thoughts with me, after all I am now putting off buyimg for 2 years because of what I think will happen, if I am wrong I would prefer to know.

And when I ask for real bullish arguments I mean people who are unbiased and think(not want) and outcome to take place, MrRees and a few of the other troll posts please do not waste your time because I won't even give your posts the time of day, you will swear black is white to make your point.
Also posts that tell me they know of someone who said the same last year or the year before, DON'T CARE, I am interested in 2012 onwards.

System

Dan: wrote: »

I know your a new member here

He's not, it's Foxy again, on his 4th account.