Solar Panels after 25 years.

ronlizpatsimon

After 25 years the FIT payments will stop. Your benifits will then be only about 2p per unit for feeding the grid and about £150 in cheaper electricity bills. So; about £225 a year. However; at that 25 year point, on average, you will be needing to make your second invertor replacement at say £1200. So that will take another 6 years to recover that cost. Also, by 25 years, the panels will have lost some of their efficiency. Thus the future is not bright for you youngsters. I am 74 and therefore am unlikly to experience this unhappy financial period!

Andy_WSM

But those who have invested in systems (me) will see a payback within 10 years, so ought to be saving for a new system after this time period. A new system will of course be MUCH cheaper comparatively in 25 years time - and who knows, a new technology might well have come along to provide an abundance of power for hardly any money (the cynic in me says that will always be prevented though!)

ronlizpatsimon

Good Morning Andy,
Yes, you are quite right about the saving for a new system.
Other points that I have just thought of is that if you wanted to install new panels; you would have the expense of removing the old ones first. Also; (another late thought) Without FIT payments it will not be viable to consider buying panels.

UncleZen

Another thought. In the future panels will be much more efficient. Say 50% rather than the pathetic sub 20% they are now. So for the same size panel, you get significantly more output. I'd also expect costs to come down.
Another thought, why is it that an invertor needs replacing? What exactly wears out and why?

ronlizpatsimon

Hello UncleZen,
Yes, you have some good points there. As for the invertor, I,m no electrician but I do not think invertors have any moving parts so I too do not know why they should need replacing. However; I,ve seen many posts which say that they usually need replacing after about 12 years. Apparently they cost about £1300 (for a 4kw system - where spare electricity is routed to the National Grid).
Going slightly off topic if I may;-
I would be interested to know what others are getting from their system. I've had a 4kw system for 2 months. I've generated 620 units (average 8.8 a day)
Of course what you generate depends mainly on the weather - I live in Cambridgeshire.
I have found that if it is very thick cloud or fog I only generate half a kw in the whole day; whereas if the next day was full sun (as yesterday) I generate 12 kw in the day.
By extrapulation I expect to average 10 units a day thoughout the whole year (7 a day during the 6 winter months and 13 a day in the 6 Summer months).

rogerblack

I'm following the industry closely, and I'd say 50% efficient panels are - probably unlikely, even in over a decade.

However, hitting 30-35% - so doubling the output per unit area is quite plausible - panels exist that do this - though at ruinous cost.

Inverters, while they do not have moving parts, have various issues that affect their life.
Both from surges - they have to cope with once-a-decade surges on a repeated basis, and from environmental factors if mounted in hot roof-space, and from simply being tricky to design for 25 year life.

Most consumer electronics are designed for around a year life.
It takes a significant amount of skill, deep understanding into failure rates, good component selection, component screening, and a dab of luck, to get a device that will function reliably for 25 years.

And I'd hope that within the 25 years, FIT will look outmoded, and we'll simply be able to net-meter, getting back for the exported electricity the exact same amount we'd pay for it.

Even with todays panel prices, this makes economic sense (if you don't need to pay for installation).
With dropping prices and installation costs, and rising energy bills, it'd make even more sense.

ronlizpatsimon

Thanks for your informative input Roger.
As you did not also indicate what your panels are producing; I assume you do not currently have them fitted.

samba

rogerblack wrote: »

I'm following the industry closely, and I'd say 50% efficient panels are - probably unlikely, even in over a decade.

I would not like to guess what technology will be available in 10 years time. I do know that some boffins have already invented 'solar paint', which can be painted over anything (e.g. your house) and effectively turns it into a giant solar panel.

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn13424-solarpower-paint-lets-you-generate-as-you-decorate.html

jimjames

I've got a 3kwp system. Its been in for 8 days and generated 42kWh so far with a maximum production of just over 8kWh on one day and just under 1kWh on the lowest so your 12kWh from 4kwp is slightly higher per kwp.

You are correct that after 25 years you will only get the free electricity and export payments. What you haven't taken into account is that inflation will have increased these. Obviously we don't know what inflation will do over the 25 years but if we assume 4% then the export payment would increase to 8p and electricity cost to 36p. If we assume slightly higher inflation for fuel compared to RPI (I'll assume 6% but some solar companies are using 15%!!!) then this would give a cost of 48p per kWh after 25 years.

At the 15% quoted by PV Solar UK in their calculations you would get a cost of £3.43 per kWh after 25 years so you can see the massive difference that compounding makes over that time.

At 4% RPI Using the 10kWh from your post above that would generate 3650 kWh pa with a benefit of £1460 pa - this is without any FIT payments. Even if only 80% of original efficiency then this still gives you £1168 benefit per year.

This blog has more info about the setup and production of solar panels here

http://uk-solarpanels.blogspot.com/

oldskoo1

Perhaps a little controversial but i think solar panels will be short lived.

Like the laser disc they will eventually die out. I don't think you will be looking to renew your equipment in 25 years time.

I expect to see the emergence of greener and more efficient ways of creating electricity over the next 10 - 15 years. Removing the dependance on fossil fuels.

It has to come from sustainable sources and i would look at dry steam with the abundance of heat from the earths core, and water / wave energy.

Just need clever people to harness this energy.

ronlizpatsimon

Good Afternoon Samba.
Thank you for your input into the discussion.
The Solar paint sounds interesting. The trouble is that it would just give my wife a cause to argue over what colour it should be!
"JimJames"
Thank you for your information. You did well to get in in before the deadline for the large FIT payments to cease. I agree that I had not allowed for inflation affecting the payments from the fuel company and that the cost of fuel would probably rise faster than the general inflation (because I had forgotten about these factors). However; the cost of the renewals of Invertors will also go up with inflation.
Hello "OldSchool"
Your thoughts are interesting and seem plausable. I think we should start with the "Seven Barrage".