what house price crash?

david29dpo

just a quickie, house price crash, doom and gloom, interest rises. my house just sold after being on the market for two weeks at a very inflated asking price! whats going on?

roswell

ah the expresss said today was a good day to buy because house prices are going to go up £1000 a month ... thats excellent in my books so im almost looking at 19 % increase in the next 12 months according to them.

At this rate i can stop working next year because my house will go up by more than i earn .. now just have to find a way of taking that money out with out a job ...... DOH

ginger_nuts

david29dpo wrote:

just a quickie, house price crash, doom and gloom, interest rises. my house just sold after being on the market for two weeks at a very inflated asking price! whats going on?

your just following last years trend in Northern Ireland ,where house prices doubled and if you where lucky they still sold at up to £30,000 over the asking price .This years increase is expected to be around 20%.

Madiba_2

roswell wrote:

ah the expresss said today was a good day to buy because house prices are going to go up £1000 a month ... thats excellent in my books so im almost looking at 19 % increase in the next 12 months according to them.

At this rate i can stop working next year because my house will go up by more than i earn .. now just have to find a way of taking that money out with out a job ...... DOH

I doubt it, that £1000 was probably an average.

mystic_trev

HPI is slowing down, probably due to the recent IR rises.
Todays NATIONWIDE January figures.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6312237.stm

""It is likely that we will now begin to see a weakening in demand as a result of stretched affordability and rising interest rates," Nationwide said"

mystic_trev

Here's the direct link to the latest NATIONWIDE figures.

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Jan_2007.pdf

Alan_M_2

Well I thought I'd read them for the hell of it, the last paragraph (the disclaimer) makes interesting reading.

Anyhow, it states that in the last month the average house price has increased by 0.3% then states the average house price around £500 lower in January than December.....eh? If it rose by 0.3% how can it drop by £500?

Am I reading this correctly?

icklejulez

If you read on Rightmove there is a large shortage of properties on the market compared with the amount of people looking to buy this month. Unfortunatly I agree, a house I liked came on the market and it sold within 4 days for what I can only presume was close to the asking price and Ive had to offer asking price to try secure the property. Theres so many buyers been looking for a long period the houses are getting snapped up.

abaxas

Alan_M wrote:

Well I thought I'd read them for the hell of it, the last paragraph (the disclaimer) makes interesting reading.

Anyhow, it states that in the last month the average house price has increased by 0.3% then states the average house price around £500 lower in January than December.....eh? If it rose by 0.3% how can it drop by £500?

Am I reading this correctly?

Never forget that the figures are 'seasonally adjusted'.

This basically means they add or subtract to the value based on a system we never get told, also they change the system from time to time but dont tell us!

Ie this data is claptrap, like all house price measures.

lisyloo

Anyhow, it states that in the last month the average house price has increased by 0.3% then states the average house price around £500 lower in January than December.....eh? If it rose by 0.3% how can it drop by £500?

The 0.3% figure is seasonally adjusted.
So in reality they really went down, but a lot less than one would have expected for this time of year, therefore on a "seaonsally adjusted" basis they went up.

Alan_M_2

Ahh indeed it is, using the US Bureau of census method X12.....of course....

Well the X11 method was a moist finger in the wind, so what's the X12 I wonder?