How long before the inevitable nominal fall of 35% in houseprices

Shatnorry

Rinoa wrote: »

You're right, 500,000 certainly do die every year ~ have done for centuries.

I reckon the 60M+ population figure is a government con. With so many dying each year there must be millions of empty houses.

Hang on in there HSW, your time has come.

You are forgetting birth rates and inward immigration.

andybenw

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

1. Unemployment over 2.500,000 and only going to get worse

2. Credit crunch according to most economic experts is going to get worse in 2012

3. The Euro on a knife edge

4. Growth unlikey to return to anything like worthwhile for a decade

5. Record levels of debt, personal and government

6. Austerity cuts

7. House stock pile can only get bigger, people are still dying and divorcing.

So the inevitable nominal fall in property prices of 30% plus simply will happen, but how long?

I say by 2013


P.s. Property bull trolls, I will not be taking any notice in what you are saying:)

It certainly won't be happening quickly if things remain as they are , that's for certain. The government cannot afford to raise interest rates and crash house prices, as the banks wouldn't be able to take it. So they won't. What we'll see is a long drawn out deflation of prices in real terms. Unfortunately for FTB wages will not be rising much and mortgages will be hard to get. ie tThe situation won't be changing much. Time to get saving and get on the ladder then!

Mr._Pricklepants

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

So the inevitable nominal fall in property prices of 30% plus simply will happen, but how long?

I say by 2013

Early 2013 or late 2013?

homelessskilledworker

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Early 2013 or late 2013?

Ok, I wil have a little bite even though I am totally wasting my time;)

The one analogy I have used time and time again on this board is this one(which just does not fit with your trolling)

Imagine the UK debt as a 10 ton weight hanging over your head and it is suspended by rope that has a breaking strain of 10 ton 1lb. Any event could cause it to break, wind, something landing on it, wear and tear, it could snap tomorrow it could last a few years, but it will break.

Thats our economy(housing market)

I have been in a recession like most on this board, some have seen numerous recessions. As far as I am concerned this recession has been a non event, we have not even seen the real recession yet. The financial figures say this is the worse one yet, but to most people it has been little more than a little of belt tightening, hardly any suffering at all.

What is happening is that we are paying through the nose right now and saying "look mate lend us a little more and I will sort you out whe things pick up". But each qtr passes and things are not picking up.

Look Pricklepants/Sibley/MrRees, the main problem you have being a one thought merchant too the end is that nobody will ever take any notice of what you say, they will be your friend for now for as long as you keep posting your same undying mantra. It just will not click with you that some people rightly or wrongly think that some form of correction will arrive, you can get as aggressive and rude as you like but it will change nothing.

I have also often posted on here that through tinkering this propped up housing market might well stay inflated a while longer.
I view several blogs and websites, and on those sites there are posters that are genuine in their belief that the property market will not fall, and if does by not very much. A few of them test my beliefs and a few have actually given me something to seriously think about, you on the otherhand will never have that skill.

I do not think there is one genuine poster on this MSE board that takes you seriously, they open your post knowing what you are going to say before you say it;)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Ok, I wil have a little bite

So are you going to answer the question?

Early 2013 or late 2013?

Only asking as prices have risen a few thousand pounds since you made that post....

Bane123

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

1. Unemployment over 2.500,000 and only going to get worse

2. Credit crunch according to most economic experts is going to get worse in 2012

3. The Euro on a knife edge

4. Growth unlikey to return to anything like worthwhile for a decade

5. Record levels of debt, personal and government

6. Austerity cuts

7. House stock pile can only get bigger, people are still dying and divorcing.

So the inevitable nominal fall in property prices of 30% plus simply will happen, but how long?

I say by 2013


P.s. Property bull trolls, I will not be taking any notice in what you are saying:)

I would say property is still 20% overvalued, but things can stay out of wack for prolonged times on occasion.

But all your points there written in 2011 have got worse now we are in 2013.

System

I think it's important that when people make predictions for no reason other than to troll that they are brought to account when they make a fool of themselves. A hard but vital lesson

If this had said 5%, then it wouldn't be worth bumping.

nollag2006

Love seeing this numpty being called out!

Better than 50% down by Christmas!!

homelessskilledworker

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So are you going to answer the question?

Early 2013 or late 2013?

Only asking as prices have risen a few thousand pounds since you made that post....

I did, can't you read or are you again being deliberately obtuse again.
If a correction/crash recommences in 2013 from 2007(£199k down to £165k) then no I will not be surprised, will I beat myself up if it did not start in 2013, no again.
What is the tolerance level of making a prediction like that, one year? two year? either way on a oil tanker of a market like the property market is. What if someone had predicted in 2000 during Gordon Browns miracle economy where the vast majority of the electorate were then in love with him that there would be the mother of all Banking crisis in 2005, and as everyone laughed at him as january 2005 arrived with still more than a two year plus wait untill did happen.

Again for you Hamish, I will once more repeat too you what I have posted over and over and over and over again...

At some point the £160k will be breached, as it gets closer to the £150k mark that is when the real problems will happen with our housing market. Should they start reaching the £170k level again, that is when the bears need to pack their bags and say au revoir.


And then it will still be no big deal, I would just of been wrong, and I have been wrong before so I know the feeling, Hey Ho!!. Some of you just do not get it:)... some people just think things might happen, Hey Ho!!, so you can get as angry as you want with them for not conforming to your "certain" belief and the fact that it appears non of you are ever wrong, took the most perfect of trackers out while they were buying property from a death old blind nutter who gave it to them for 50% off.

Truth be told I think the majority of the so called Bullish element of MSE are probably as bearish if not more bearish than most.

There is another option of course, where property hovers around the £160k mark for ages, now this is something I can envisage, will it be a good or bad then;)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

What is the tolerance level of making a prediction like that,

From 2011 to 2013.

That's probably why it says, you know, 2013 in the prediction.