How long before the inevitable nominal fall of 35% in houseprices

wotsthat

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Imagine the UK debt as a 10 ton weight hanging over your head and it is suspended by rope that has a breaking strain of 10 ton 1lb. Any event could cause it to break, wind, something landing on it, wear and tear, it could snap tomorrow it could last a few years, but it will break.

What's worrying is that despite being wrong about "30% off nominal by 2013" you haven't taken a step back and looked at why you got it so wrong. Instead we get the usual waffle trying to make out you were right all along (if we ignore the bit about 30% and the other bit about 2013).

You're making life decisions based on your predictive powers and so far they are costing you real money every year.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

wotsthat wrote: »

You're making life decisions based on your predictive powers and so far they are costing you real money every year.

A lot of real money at that.

Mr._Pricklepants

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

A lot of real money at that.

Hey Ho!!

Bane123

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

I did, can't you read or are you again being deliberately obtuse again.
If a correction/crash recommences in 2013 from 2007(£199k down to £165k) then no I will not be surprised, will I beat myself up if it did not start in 2013, no again.
What is the tolerance level of making a prediction like that, one year? two year? either way on a oil tanker of a market like the property market is. What if someone had predicted in 2000 during Gordon Browns miracle economy where the vast majority of the electorate were then in love with him that there would be the mother of all Banking crisis in 2005, and as everyone laughed at him as january 2005 arrived with still more than a two year plus wait untill did happen.

Again for you Hamish, I will once more repeat too you what I have posted over and over and over and over again...

At some point the £160k will be breached, as it gets closer to the £150k mark that is when the real problems will happen with our housing market. Should they start reaching the £170k level again, that is when the bears need to pack their bags and say au revoir.


And then it will still be no big deal, I would just of been wrong, and I have been wrong before so I know the feeling, Hey Ho!!. Some of you just do not get it:)... some people just think things might happen, Hey Ho!!, so you can get as angry as you want with them for not conforming to your "certain" belief and the fact that it appears non of you are ever wrong, took the most perfect of trackers out while they were buying property from a death old blind nutter who gave it to them for 50% off.

Truth be told I think the majority of the so called Bullish element of MSE are probably as bearish if not more bearish than most.

There is another option of course, where property hovers around the £160k mark for ages, now this is something I can envisage, will it be a good or bad then;)

£199k down to £160 is quite a fall the question is now - will it stop falling? Have all the reasons why its falling so much gone away or are they getting worse?

gorgeyetsun

wotsthat wrote: »

What's worrying is that despite being wrong about "30% off nominal by 2013" you haven't taken a step back and looked at why you got it so wrong. Instead we get the usual waffle trying to make out you were right all along (if we ignore the bit about 30% and the other bit about 2013).

You're making life decisions based on your predictive powers and so far they are costing you real money every year.

Definition of 'blind faith':

"Unquestioning of anything that is dictated by the religion of choice, no matter how foolish, or even if one "rule" (or "guideline") contradicts another. "

Some people's belief that a financial position that they desire/require will occur is as unshakable as people's belief in religion. There is little to gain from trying to use logic against a zealot whose position has become entrenched. All you can do is patiently point out the flaws in the argument in the hope that it helps prevent other people from falling into the same trap.

Bane123

gorgeyetsun wrote: »

Definition of 'blind faith':

"Unquestioning of anything that is dictated by the religion of choice, no matter how foolish, or even if one "rule" (or "guideline") contradicts another. "

Some people's belief that a financial position that they desire/require will occur is as unshakable as people's belief in religion. There is little to gain from trying to use logic against a zealot whose position has become entrenched. All you can do is patiently point out the flaws in the argument in the hope that it helps prevent other people from falling into the same trap.

Its too late for most of the property bulls on here. They will never admitthat property is in and has been in a bear market.

ukcarper

Bane123 wrote: »

£199k down to £160 is quite a fall the question is now - will it stop falling? Have all the reasons why its falling so much gone away or are they getting worse?

Why use £199k when Land Reg and Nationwide show max price of just over £182k a 30% fall on that will make price about £128k, I suppose we will have to wait and see but I will be surprised if they fall that far this year.

wotsthat

Bane123 wrote: »

£199k down to £160 is quite a fall the question is now - will it stop falling? Have all the reasons why its falling so much gone away or are they getting worse?

To be fair it wasn't a real prediction from HSW - it was more of a hope based on the amount of money probably received from an inheritance. His advice was simply for owners to urgently sell at a discount - to him.

He's never sat down and worked out what his investment (rent/ living in a hovel/ stress) is against the potential return. With every year that passes the investment increases and so does the size of the crash required to get to a breakeven point.

As an aside I bet most of the people in this position (like those on HPC) are male. I can't imagine many women who really really want to buy a house and being able to afford one saying to themselves "don't think I'll bother - I'll spend years trying to convince myself that a crash is coming".

I blame the internet.

Bane123

ukcarper wrote: »

30% fall on that will make price about £128k, I suppose we will have to wait and see but I will be surprised if they fall that far this year.

Me too I think it will take a few years to get that low.

nollag2006

wotsthat wrote: »

To be fair it wasn't a real prediction from HSW - it was more of a hope based on the amount of money probably received from an inheritance. His advice was simply for owners to urgently sell at a discount - to him.

He's never sat down and worked out what his investment (rent/ living in a hovel/ stress) is against the potential return. With every year that passes the investment increases and so does the size of the crash required to get to a breakeven point.

As an aside I bet most of the people in this position (like those on HPC) are male. I can't imagine many women who really really want to buy a house and being able to afford one saying to themselves "don't think I'll bother - I'll spend years trying to convince myself that a crash is coming".

I blame the internet.

Ha! That made me laugh.

I must go and find that clip from London Tonight in 2003 when the founders of HPC were busily laughing about how their clever STR strategy would save them millions.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl: