How long before the inevitable nominal fall of 35% in houseprices

Bane123

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

No, it's sound financial advice.

By the way, congratulations, 36 posts and you haven't mentioned perma propbulls yet. :T

Spamming the forum with obvious property ramping is sound financial advice is it? You were doing that when prices were higher than they are now,was it good advice then too?

When prices are lower again soon will it still be good advice?

I would say it is bad advice and you are ramping, but you are not alone on this forum:)

Conrad

Bane123 wrote: »

I am not in the 70% club rather the real 50% club, so I think the crash has not finished yet and we will see lower real term prices before the bear market in property is over.

This is just bizzare. I'm telling you from the front line that prices are going up right accross the South East and that this is rippling out fast.

There is a bit of panic in B2L circles as people want o buy now at what is percieved the start of the upwards slope and whilst we can get 5 year money at sub 4% rates.

IveSeenTheLight

Bane123 wrote: »

I am not in the 70% club rather the real 50% club, so I think the crash has not finished yet and we will see lower real term prices before the bear market in property is over.

As your referring to prices against inflation, you may indeed come to a point where you can claim that prices are 50% lower than peak in real terms.


Personally, I wouldn;t want to wait that long as you'll likely find: -

• Prices significantly higher nominally

and

• You could have paid off a property via a capital and interest repayment mortgage by the time a "50% real term drop from peak" is realised

IveSeenTheLight

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Foxy, just for once, drop the forum rhetorics.
This is more important than scoring forum points, imaginary internet friends and online bear-bull wars.
This is about your life and the roof above your head. I told you before : you claim to have a decent deposit and the mortgage deals for low LTV's has never been as good as now.
Please do the maths.
Believe me or not, but I really hope you will own your own little piece of England soon.

Bane123 wrote: »

How can these obvious property pushers get away with this. Is this not obvious spamming ramping?

It's not spamming ramping, it's very good sage advise.

Do the maths, work out what the calculation show and decide for your self having gained that knowledge how it affects.

With property prices having increase circa 1% nominally in the last year and inflation hovering circa 3%, you could show that in real terms prices are 2% cheaper.

Consider how your wage inflation affects the affordability.

Consider how the low mortgage rates affect the current repayments and what they will cost extra if they rise and nominally house prices continue to rise.

Work out how much you need prices to lower nominally in order to realise the "real term" house price valuation you expect and compare the position at that time compared to if you had bought now.

All Mr P was recommending to you was to do the calculations and then make an informed decision based on your results.

If your not willing to do that, you'd get better information just by sticking a wet finger in the air. At least you'd know which way the wind is blowing.

System

It would be much better advice to ramp silver.

IveSeenTheLight

Bane123 wrote: »

And by that time there will not be housing benefit or not that much at all. Rents will have to fall a long way or most of these you are talking about will be homeless.

The governments strategy on this is to promote more private rental properties.

If renters in retirement can't afford the rent, there will be upcoming renters to take their place.

The government does not want the problem of providing future pensioners housing.

Maybe we could see a change in certain taxes such as Inheritance Tax in order to allow more money to filter down from homeowners to younger generations.

Maybe we'll see an increase in the Affordable housing levy.
On that subject, I am about to pay a levy towards affordable housing for building my own property. I just don;t see where the council is building social homes and wonder where this levy is being redirected to.

IveSeenTheLight

Bane123 wrote: »

Spamming the forum with obvious property ramping is sound financial advice is it? You were doing that when prices were higher than they are now,was it good advice then too?

When prices are lower again soon will it still be good advice?

I would say it is bad advice and you are ramping, but you are not alone on this forum:)

Some areas of the UK have exceeded the 2007 peak.
May I suggest that you consider your own VI marketplace as part of your calculations.

I made this very point almost 5 years ago.
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/898381

moneyinmypocket

House prices will never crash it's a supply and demand issue.

Buying a house is as safe as "houses" if you can afford tye monthly repayments, never been a better time to own.

The_White_Horse

this is anecdotal but house prices near me are well up on 2007. well up. Home Counties.

Conrad

Not only are prices on the up but you can get hold of very cheap 5 year fixed money. Whats not like!