How long before the inevitable nominal fall of 35% in houseprices

Bane123

wotsthat wrote: »

I'll spend years trying to convince myself that a crash is coming".

I blame the internet.

I don't think there is anyone thinking a crash IS coming. Most bears think we are going through the crash now.

How far though the crash is what's is open to speculation, some bulls on here think we will see another boom soon, which will take prices out of the range of almost every average working person.

I am not in the 70% club rather the real 50% club, so I think the crash has not finished yet and we will see lower real term prices before the bear market in property is over.

Once we touch bottom, we could see another boom, but it depends how low the bottom of this bear market will be and how long it takes to get there.

wotsthat

Bane123 wrote: »

I am not in the 70% club rather the real 50% club, so I think the crash has not finished yet and we will see lower real term prices before the bear market in property is over.

I hear that membership of the 'real 50% club' is booming as members of the 'nominal 50% club' hit the big bear reset button and quietly slink over to join.

Declines in house prices for years to come, HB caps at £480wk, and lots of reposessions still to clear - it's a problem knowing what to invest in.

Mr._Pricklepants

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

I do not think there is one genuine poster on this MSE board that takes you seriously, they open your post knowing what you are going to say before you say it;)

Foxy, just for once, drop the forum rhetorics.
This is more important than scoring forum points, imaginary internet friends and online bear-bull wars.
This is about your life and the roof above your head. I told you before : you claim to have a decent deposit and the mortgage deals for low LTV's has never been as good as now.
Please do the maths.
Believe me or not, but I really hope you will own your own little piece of England soon.

ukcarper

Bane123 wrote: »

Me too I think it will take a few years to get that low.

I'd be surprised if they fall that far at all.I think there are more real term falls to come but unless wages keep up with inflation that won't help many people.

Bane123

ukcarper wrote: »

I'd be surprised if they fall that far at all.I think there are more real term falls to come but unless wages keep up with inflation that won't help many people.

Agreed, how low they will fall in nominal terms is uncertain, but more falls in real terms is far more likely.

Also agreed that wages will go up less than real inflation, and harder times are down the road for everyone.

Bane123

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Foxy, just for once, drop the forum rhetorics.
This is more important than scoring forum points, imaginary internet friends and online bear-bull wars.
This is about your life and the roof above your head. I told you before : you claim to have a decent deposit and the mortgage deals for low LTV's has never been as good as now.
Please do the maths.
Believe me or not, but I really hope you will own your own little piece of England soon.

How can these obvious property pushers get away with this. Is this not obvious spamming ramping?

But then that has been what this board is all about, ramping property till they are blue in the face. All the time while property is falling in real terms :rotfl:

It would be funny if it wasn't so serious.

Almost everyone agrees that the bottom is not in yet, further falls are on the way, why would someone buy now when if they wait property will be better value?

Surely no one is stupid enough to buy any of this crap property ramping when everyone can see property is still at least 20% overvalued.

nickj_2

whilst i don't think that thwere will be a hpc in the foreseeable future , a small rise in interest rates could put the cat amongst the pidgeons , add in a bit of inflation , food, fuel etc plus below inflation pay rises or no pay rise at all could make things interesting

if you take it that people renting , are renting due to the fact that they can't afford to buy , what will happen to these people when they have to retire , if they can only afford to make ends meet now , when they stop working they will be unlikely to be able to afford the rents , whatever they will be in 30-40 years time

Bane123

nickj wrote: »

whilst i don't think that thwere will be a hpc in the foreseeable future , a small rise in interest rates could put the cat amongst the pidgeons , add in a bit of inflation , food, fuel etc plus below inflation pay rises or no pay rise at all could make things interesting

if you take it that people renting , are renting due to the fact that they can't afford to buy , what will happen to these people when they have to retire , if they can only afford to make ends meet now , when they stop working they will be unlikely to be able to afford the rents , whatever they will be in 30-40 years time

And by that time there will not be housing benefit or not that much at all. Rents will have to fall a long way or most of these you are talking about will be homeless.

Mr._Pricklepants

Bane123 wrote: »

How can these obvious property pushers get away with this. Is this not obvious spamming ramping?

No, it's sound financial advice.

By the way, congratulations, 36 posts and you haven't mentioned perma propbulls yet. :T

wotsthat

Bane123 wrote: »

But then that has been what this board is all about, ramping property till they are blue in the face. All the time while property is falling in real terms :rotfl:

Property prices are only one aspect of buying a house.

Obviously you're new to the board and won't realise that we do have some background...

Say you've got a man in his early fifties, employed & skilled (and presumably credit worthy) who currently lives in rented accomodation which he feels is of very poor quality. In 2010 he didn't have a pot to p**s in but now finds himself with the best part of a six figure sum held as cash which in itself makes him uncomfortable.

Then you need to consider the fact that he dreams of home ownership.

Based on this I'd suggest he buys a house - what do you suggest? (please show your working).