Most property types in most areas of aberdeen falling YOY.

geneer

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

What would my cherry picking theory be and how does it fall down?

Thanks:rotfl:

Ah so you'd rather drop the subject of volumes yes. :rotfl:

Well Jack I was refering to how you appeared to be suggesting I had myself cherrypicked the detatched falls, when in fact I had actually linked to and posted the data for all property types.

Not sure why this would be unclear to you, as I did say

Though of course my link, and indeed my OP showed all property types. So your cherry picking theory doesn't really stand up to scrutiny.

Thanks for asking though.
Its good to avoid misunderstandings.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

"Is this good news for you Geneer? Unlikely, since the average has increased by a tiny fraction... Meanwhile you wait and line the LL's pocket.

"A lot of terraces where sold compared to Detached and semi's.
The low number of sales of other property types are skewing the figures.
An average of all sales actually show a tiny amount of growth?"

I don't think you'll be able to show where I stated you had cherry picked the data.... :rotfl: I actually stated that the said figures where meaningless on such small scale data.... But you are fully aware of this, hence why you're changing your argument. SIMPLES :T

Graham_Devon

So who is jack johnson? Came here pretending to be a FTB, kept it up for a couple of hours, until the bitterness about the HPC site came pouring out and hasn't shutup about it ever since.

Just wondering who he/she is?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

You're extremely happy when your link shows Detached houses, but you've failed to mention that this was for a grand total of 150 sales.... 120 the previous year LOL :j:

I think even geneer knows full well that such a tiny sub set of the data will be prone to skew from low volumes. And the overall average being up, despite the two most expensive categories being down, shows clearly that most Aberdeen houses are not falling in price at all.

Regardless, he's been trying to assert that price rises in Scotland were simply skew from low volume for some time.

So either he now has to acknowledge that prices in those categories are not in fact falling, and that it's skew from low volume.

Or he has to admit that prices were rising before, and it was not skew from low volumes after all.

I wonder which it'll be......:rotfl:

Either way, he's just trolled himself into a corner.:D

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/ros_statistical_report_jul-sept2011.pdf

Aberdeen City Average Price +0.1%.

But.

Aberdeen City Detatched -10.3%.
Aberdeen City Semi-Detatched -4.4%.
Aberdeen City Flats -1.6%.
Aberdeen City Terraced. +3.7%.

We can safely conclude that for most people in most property types in most areas of aberdeen prices are dropping.

Just goes to show how meaningless those high level averages can be.

reference your bold summation
Can we? Let's look at the data: -

Aberdeen City Transaction Levels (Jul-Sep 11) - 1343
Aberdeen City Transaction Levels (Apr-Jun 11) - 1041
Up 29.0% in the quarter

Aberdeen City Resedential Value Sales (Jul-Sep 11) - £255238,605
Aberdeen City Resedential Value Sales (Apr-Jun 11) - £190,225,963
Up 34.2%

Aberdeen City Detached Average (Jul-Sep 11) - £335,384
Aberdeen City Detached Average (Apr-Jun 11) - £345,277
Down 2.9%

Aberdeen City Detached sales (Jul-Sep 11) - 153
Aberdeen City Detached sales (Apr-Jun 11) - 104
Up 47.1%

Aberdeen City Semi-Detached Average (Jul-Sep 11) - £227,157
Aberdeen City Semi-Detached Average (Apr-Jun 11) - £229,485
Down 1.0%

Aberdeen City Semi-Detached sales (Jul-Sep 11) - 195
Aberdeen City Semi-Detached sales (Apr-Jun 11) - 135
Up 44.4%


Aberdeen City Terraced Average (Jul-Sep 11) - £187,765
Aberdeen City Terraced Average (Apr-Jun 11) - £174,983
Up 7.3%

Aberdeen City Terraced sales (Jul-Sep 11) - 370
Aberdeen City Terraced sales (Apr-Jun 11) - 311
Up 19.0%

Aberdeen City Flats Average (Jul-Sep 11) - £142,732
Aberdeen City Flats Average (Apr-Jun 11) - £138,210
Up 3.3%

Aberdeen City Flats sales (Jul-Sep 11) - 625
Aberdeen City Flats sales (Apr-Jun 11) - 491
Up 27.3%

geneer wrote: »

We can safely conclude that for most people in most property types in most areas of aberdeen prices are dropping.

Actually, the data shows that : -

153 Detached fell on average £9,893
195 Semi detached fell on average £2,328
348 Aberdeen City Properties fell on average £5,653

370 Terraced rose on average £12,782
625 Flats rose on average £4,522
995 Aberdeen City Properties rose on average £7,593

Whilst we cannot implicitly define that most properties in most area rose, the data certainly point to that as opposed to the OP's blanket statement

geneer

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

reference your bold summation
Can we? Let's look at the data: -

Aberdeen City Transaction Levels (Jul-Sep 11) - 1343
Aberdeen City Transaction Levels (Apr-Jun 11) - 1041
Up 29.0% in the quarter

Aberdeen City Resedential Value Sales (Jul-Sep 11) - £255238,605
Aberdeen City Resedential Value Sales (Apr-Jun 11) - £190,225,963
Up 34.2%

Aberdeen City Detached Average (Jul-Sep 11) - £335,384
Aberdeen City Detached Average (Apr-Jun 11) - £345,277
Down 2.9%

Aberdeen City Detached sales (Jul-Sep 11) - 153
Aberdeen City Detached sales (Apr-Jun 11) - 104
Up 47.1%

Aberdeen City Semi-Detached Average (Jul-Sep 11) - £227,157
Aberdeen City Semi-Detached Average (Apr-Jun 11) - £229,485
Down 1.0%

Aberdeen City Semi-Detached sales (Jul-Sep 11) - 195
Aberdeen City Semi-Detached sales (Apr-Jun 11) - 135
Up 44.4%


Aberdeen City Terraced Average (Jul-Sep 11) - £187,765
Aberdeen City Terraced Average (Apr-Jun 11) - £174,983
Up 7.3%

Aberdeen City Terraced sales (Jul-Sep 11) - 370
Aberdeen City Terraced sales (Apr-Jun 11) - 311
Up 19.0%

Aberdeen City Flats Average (Jul-Sep 11) - £142,732
Aberdeen City Flats Average (Apr-Jun 11) - £138,210
Up 3.3%

Aberdeen City Flats sales (Jul-Sep 11) - 625
Aberdeen City Flats sales (Apr-Jun 11) - 491
Up 27.3%



Actually, the data shows that : -

153 Detached fell on average £9,893
195 Semi detached fell on average £2,328
348 Aberdeen City Properties fell on average £5,653

370 Terraced rose on average £12,782
625 Flats rose on average £4,522
995 Aberdeen City Properties rose on average £7,593

Whilst we cannot implicitly define that most properties in most area rose, the data certainly point to that as opposed to the OP's blanket statement

See what you've done is elected to go with the QOQ changes, despite numerous protests from yourself that any variations here are "normal seasonal variations". Naturally YOY figures will be of more interest.
Though for some reasons your less keen on looking at that data...

Hamish is very very clear about this. YOY is the only way to fly.

DervProf

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So who is jack johnson? Came here pretending to be a FTB, kept it up for a couple of hours, until the bitterness about the HPC site came pouring out and hasn't shutup about it ever since.

Just wondering who he/she is?

I think "the acorn" is a clue.

I think it's a bloke. Just.

geneer

Graham_Devon wrote: »

So who is jack johnson? Came here pretending to be a FTB, kept it up for a couple of hours, until the bitterness about the HPC site came pouring out and hasn't shutup about it ever since.

Just wondering who he/she is?

JAck Johnson the Acorn is certainly a bit of a nut. Tee hee.

He seems to have a thing for myself.
Smells like a sockie to me.

geneer

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I think even geneer knows full well that such a tiny sub set of the data will be prone to skew from low volumes. And the overall average being up, despite the two most expensive categories being down, shows clearly that most Aberdeen houses are not falling in price at all.

Bless you hamish. You hate visiting inconvenient threads, but you hate being called out even more.

Well we can see whats falling in value.
Flats, Detatched and semi detatched. 3 out of 4.

Overall volumes in aberdeen aren't that bad compared to pre-peak (as has been demonstrated in this thread). So bang goes that theory.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Regardless, he's been trying to assert that price rises in Scotland were simply skew from low volume for some time.

Not sure why you would insist that I'm trying to assert price spikes are due to low volume and skew. I have in fact tabled the quotes from the VIs themselves that explicitly state that this has been the case. You did in fact see those quotes on more than one occasion.
You're not being very honest are you?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

So either he now has to acknowledge that prices in those categories are not in fact falling, and that it's skew from low volume.

So either he now has to acknowledge that prices in those categories are not in fact falling, and that it's skew from low volume.

Or he has to admit that prices were rising before, and it was not skew from low volumes after all.

I wonder which it'll be......:rotfl:

Either way, he's just trolled himself into a corner.:D

You think so? Cos as far as I'm aware its not a binary condition.
I'm going to go with a bit of both I think.
The new peaks weren't all that, and generally prices are currently coming down.

IveSeenTheLight

geneer wrote: »

See what you've done is elected to go with the QOQ changes,

I refer you to your original post.

geneer wrote: »

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/ros_statistical_report_jul-sept2011.pdf

Aberdeen City Average Price +0.1%.

But.

Aberdeen City Detatched -10.3%.
Aberdeen City Semi-Detatched -4.4%.
Aberdeen City Flats -1.6%.
Aberdeen City Terraced. +3.7%.

We can safely conclude that for most people in most property types in most areas of aberdeen prices are dropping.

Just goes to show how meaningless those high level averages can be.

Arguably, YOY is up overall.
You have chosedn to look at the breakdown of the figures to conclude that "most people in most property types in most areas of Aberdeen Prices ARE DROPPING"

I would have had no argument had you made your point that YOY, the breakdowns show prices are lower than they were a year ago, however you have chosen to articulate yourself by stating they ARE DROPPING, which infers to what is currently happening.
To disect what is happening currently, you naturally want to look at a closer timeframe that YOY.

geneer wrote: »

despite numerous protests from yourself that any variations here are "normal seasonal variations". Naturally YOY figures will be of more interest.

You are very adamant there are no seasonal variations.
Are you in agreement that your position on this is incorrect?

geneer wrote: »

Though for some reasons your less keen on looking at that data...

Hamish is very very clear about this. YOY is the only way to fly.

Hamish is another forum member, let's try to stick to the facts presented instead of worrying what others think.

I've clarified above YOY appears to be up and you have accurately shown that the YOY average of up +/- 0.1% is mae up of areas which rose and fell.
No argument there.
I'm not going to get my knickers in a twist with regards to a 0.1% movement.

Hell it supports my statements of nominal stagnation.